Mega cap

~~ Capitalization Comparative Performances ~~ Market took out "3mo" Mega cap performance (-9%) which was (-1%) in "1 mo" (-8%) resulted in (-9%).

1Best Signals 080630

~~ Best bankers short month with big profit in Jun ~~

Bankers made Big with shorts in 30 years!
Shorted financials and long oil to have the big gain effect.




BKX is testing 58 and VIX is showing negative divergence. We will not see climactic VIX SPIKE action like Jan-Mar 2008 unless we see a war, as example.

~~~ IMF world economy forecast ~~~

IMF is projecting higher growth in 2009 per April 2008 announcement. As of today, the projection remains the same. In 2009, the US and world economy will moderately grow while Emerging and developing economies will be moderately slowing. This is consistent view as the Financial sector forecast for 2009 outlook as noted on $BKX comments.

1Best Signals 080627

Markets are at cycle turn date 6/27/2008 +/- at major supports, SPX 1275 +/-, Nasdaq 2300 +/-, and DOW 11300 +/- DLT and megaphone formation supports. Qs closed at 45.65, above 45.50 TL support +/-. During the next week before the July 4th long weekend, we will likely see a cycle turn bottom. It is also EOM and Quarter market action shortened week. Good luck

BKX & Citi

~~~ $BKX ~~~ 59.27 which is the project target and 61.8% retracement of the entire price advancement since 1994 low 24.82. This is also prior triple bottom support area. It formed Megaphone RST as noted on posts 9314, 8771.
It will like find supports at 58 +/-.
Ref: iHub board 8800
(posts 9314, 8771, 8583, 6628, 5257)

"C" Citigroup is fundamentally a dog of the financial group in 2008, however, it has stronger outlook in 2009 as C EPS growth for 2009 is 2482%.

GS, WFC, USB, AXP, BK, MET, AFL... are stable and favorable.

Market Signals 080626

Ref 9417 With Goldman pouncing on bearish note and the Fed draining 26 billion, the short side hedge fund had a bloody day, wiping out markets today. Markets closed lower supports shown on daily charts, SPX 1280 and DOW 11500. We are cycle turn timeframe as noted 6/27/2008 +/-.

Ref 9388 Major market price actions were good but those who planned RIMM firework, didn't cover shorts... didn't have the volumes to break above the noted resistances, mainly falling wedge formations. Rimm didn't spark a breakout from Nas "Cup & Handle" formation. With BKX and TRAN VLT megaphone formations, a caution is necessary.

1Best Signals 080625

~~ Falling Wedges~~ Major market price actions were good but those who planned RIMM firework, didn't cover shorts... didn't have the volumes to break above the noted resistances, mainly falling wedge formations.

Rimm didn't spark a breakout from Nas "Cup & Handle" formation.

Nasdaq 2420 falling wedge r ~> Cup & Handle

SPX 1335 falling wedge r

Qs OE

Trading below 47.70 at 1pm after hammer MM formations and now a bit of follow through before the Fed announcement. Qs 47.70 is a intraday R, looks like building up momo.

Markets were showing positive divergences.

TRAN signals

~~ $TRAN ~~ tested 5000 +/- support and bouncing up trading at 5079
after trading to 4961, 38% RT.

~~ 1Best Signals ~~ 080624

Hammers/doji closes at the supports.


Posted by: __1Best__ Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008 11:06:13 AM

~~ Major Markets ~~ DOW 11725 +/- Support noted on post 9259.

Qs 46.41 & SPX 1304.42
Qs 46.50 +/- S is the noted lower TL support shown on daily.
SPX 1300 +/- S commented CIT S.


The Fed Day Usual Fed day pattern is: In average: up ~ down ~ up or vice versa

$BKX Comments 62.39 ~~> $BKX outperforming other sectors today with a strong rebound from 60.01 which is the support which noted earlier.


~~ Market Summary ~~

Stocks move lower as crude oil rallies to $137. UPS says fuel costs will hurt earnings; Dow Chemical will boost prices to cope. Financial and homebuilding stocks rebound. Consumer confidence hits a 16-year low.

By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott

The stock market fell back this afternoon as crude oil finished at $137 a barrel and as investors await the Federal Reserve's Wednesday decision on interest rates.

The Dow Jones industrials finished down 34 points, or 0.3%, to 11,807. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 17 points, or 0.7%, to 2,368, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 4 points, or 0.3%, to 1,314.

The Fed began a two-day meeting on interest rates today. At 2:15 p.m. ET Wednesday, it's likely to announce that it is leaving its key federal funds rate unchanged at 2% due to concern about inflation. The fed funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans and is the basis for most U.S. interest rates.

Also on Wednesday, the Commerce Department will report on new home sales during May. Important earnings reports will come from General Mills (GIS, news, msgs), Monsanto (MON, news, msgs), Oracle (ORCL, news, msgs), Herman Miller (MLHR, news, msgs) and Research In Motion (RIMM, news, msgs), maker of the BlackBerry mobile device.

$BKX

BKX 60.87 meeting the projected target area of 60-63 which is 61.8% of the entire price advancement since 1994 low 24.82. This is also prior triple bottom support area. It formed Megaphone RST as noted on 6/8/2008 (8771).With BKX higher beta within the sector, predicting precise bottom of the volatility is challenging; nevertheless, I think that 57-60 will likely a bottom. From 1993 low 21.50, the relative retracement is 57 +/- which is lower end of progressive targets. iHub 8800 (posts 8771, 8583, 6628, 5257)

$BKX

$BKX 60.87 meeting the projected target area of 60-63 which is 61.8% of the entire price advancement since 1994 low 24.82. This is also prior triple bottom support area.

Because of higher beta within the sector, predicting precise bottom of the volatility is challenging; nevertheless, I think that 57-60 will likely be a bottom.

From 1993 low 21.50, the relative retracement is 57 +/- which is lower end of targets.

Sector Analysis

Oil related sectors are still going parabolic.


US Sector valuation 080623

080623

In Pictures: 10 Predictions From Bill Gates


7 Words You Can't Say on CNBC

Week of June 23-29

News ~~ > Week of June 23-29

Market Signals 080621

~~ DOW ~~ Cycle & Triple bottom near at DOW 11842 Weekly 200 ma support 11680 +/-. The 11800 +/- is also LT symmetrical triangle formation noted on previous posts.

FOMC meeting is on Tues/Wed. Rate decision on Wed.

Next week is a pivotal week as noted on (Bd 8800 ~ posts 8728, 8416)

With record high short and oversold market on daily, we will likely have a sharp rally.

6/27/2008 +/- is a turn date.

On weekly price action, favorable outcome is that markets consolidate in the LT triangle formation with wave C instead of breaking the lower sym triangle formation to lower target 10780 +/-. Nevertheless, we will likely see a bounce from the lower TL support after the recent pull back. For DOW, it is 10% pull back in one month in symmetry price actions from Mar 2008 low.

Good luck





~~ OEPM ~~ Qs -7%, SPY -9%, DIA 10% during the Jun OE

Weekly Performances

Market Signals 080620

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/05/spx-cycles.html

Ref: Previous post on the 6/6/2008 turn date
http://beta.investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29850382


Corruption ~ in this case, sell-off with Moody downgrade
hedge fund paulson = TS paulson = greenspan = bernanke



Qs trading at 48.35 in premarket after trading to 48.45 pulling back from 49 R sym triangle, look for lower support TL with the formation. Making new low below 47 will fill lower gaps. Good luck





U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open for Wall Street on Friday, with volatility expected to remain high due to the expiration of options and oil prices climbing again.


Cycle pivot 6/27/2008 +/- comment

2009 outlook

Market Signals 080619

NYSE Short Interest Rises to Record High

During trading hours, I noted high short interest.
Now, bespoke is reporting NYSE short interest is record high.

XLF LT support 22.50 +/- and $BKX target 63 has met.


~~ OEPM ~~ charts, S/R, pivots