SPX triangle & Alternative EW

SPX is showing a triangle formation with SPX 800 support. The SPX EW on 60min is a less bearish formation holding SPX 800. Wave 4 and 5 corrective forms can be quite complex with long strings of counts. Breaking the support will be following more bearish pattern. Markets are showing positive divergences, however, we have quite bearish market sentiment and so far, that is not proven to be a contrarian indicator for a decent market bounce.




Another alternative:

SPX daily: less bearish EW count with 5th wave in progression instead of 4th wave in progress. The Oct 2007 top could be VLT 5th impulse wave top instead of a corrective wave B. Based on this speculation, the current 5th wave is a VLT corrective wave A. However, the 5th wave speculation can be valid if markets break above the (symmetrical) triangle formation which is usually bearish formation as we are in downtrend since the Oct 2007 top. Breaking Nov2008 low, of course, negates this scenario.

Qs symmetrical formation +D

Qs HOD 30.43 is not fixed on stockcharts data. It seems that is the case for other trading platforms even though intraday data is fixed. Qs is contracting in a tight trading range. Qs range was 29-30 as noted during premarket. Market sentiment is very bearish even though markets are showing positive divergences. Hence, many are reluctant to make any commitment as we can see light trading volumes. Breaking S/R is initial signal and market price pattern shows bearish pattern as well as market news. When market sentiment will turn is a wild guess, yet.

Unlike the Bush philosophy, Obama likes to follow polls, so whether markets will follow market sentiment is an easy guess for now.

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Premarket

Qs formation ~ turn this to right side 90 degree -- a window of 29-30 +/-. SPX is less perfect symmetrical triangle formation. Breaks from the formations as initial signals. Intraday 60min is starting to turn upside providing a bit of positive momentum.