In 3 days SPX is up 13.5%, DOW 12.5%, Qs 12%, and Nasdaq 12.5% since the market bottom call on 3/6/2009
Intradays are quite overbought and showing neg D. We will see a SPX 30+/- point correction day during the next week.
Posted by: __1Best__ Date: Friday, March 06, 2009 5:10:03 PM
MARKET BOTTOM: SPX 683.38 0.83 0.12%
SPX 666.79
____________________________________________________________
The Obama administration’s hope-and-change show hasn’t played well on Wall Street, but in the last week investors may finally be getting some of what they want and that could bring a happier ending than anyone imagined.
In its opening weeks the administration’s controversial cocktail of crisis management and social reform has made investors despondent, not hopeful, and change for the stock market has usually meant another price decline.
Showing posts with label Market Timing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Timing. Show all posts
Friday, March 13, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
1Best Market Analysis and forecasts
Markets are finding no support breaking below supports SPX 750 +/- and DOW 7200 +/-. As commented earlier with the long term analysis projections and cycles, SPX 600 breakout retest will be a LT support during this bear market into 2012.
SPX 720 +/- is a ST support even though it appears to fail to retest the Nov2008 low of 752.44 as it traded to high 777.85 and low 742.37, closing at 743.33.
Intraday 60min showing +D for a couple of days.
Markets could follow 1973-1974 recession period; however, no two recession is alike.
Recessions: 1973-1974 40% +/-, 2000-2002 40% +/-, 2007-2009 46%+/-
We are now passed the 1973-1974 40% recession sell-off as markets are now sold off 50%. The current bear market is now 16.5 month old since Oct 2007.
DOW 6000 is a longer term support with the worst case 4000 support with a relative SPX support 400.
We can better remember the last three recessions, but the 1929 case is the worst of all -- which we could see it as the Bush admin effect.
Most of informed, average investors are already out of the markets since 2007. But of course, some are trapped, but the climactic sell-off was during Oct-Nov 2008. Market market action now is low-volume discounting manipulation.
SPX long term chart ~ traded to the target of 720 +/- retest of the Oct 2002 low and Mar 1997 -- 52% sell-off from Oct 2007.
SPX 720 +/- is a ST support even though it appears to fail to retest the Nov2008 low of 752.44 as it traded to high 777.85 and low 742.37, closing at 743.33.
Intraday 60min showing +D for a couple of days.
Markets could follow 1973-1974 recession period; however, no two recession is alike.
Recessions: 1973-1974 40% +/-, 2000-2002 40% +/-, 2007-2009 46%+/-
We are now passed the 1973-1974 40% recession sell-off as markets are now sold off 50%. The current bear market is now 16.5 month old since Oct 2007.
DOW 6000 is a longer term support with the worst case 4000 support with a relative SPX support 400.
We can better remember the last three recessions, but the 1929 case is the worst of all -- which we could see it as the Bush admin effect.
Most of informed, average investors are already out of the markets since 2007. But of course, some are trapped, but the climactic sell-off was during Oct-Nov 2008. Market market action now is low-volume discounting manipulation.
SPX long term chart ~ traded to the target of 720 +/- retest of the Oct 2002 low and Mar 1997 -- 52% sell-off from Oct 2007.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Gold
Gold breakout alert at 931, now it is closed at 1002 -- retesting 1033.
re Gold ~ I called Gold tops and bottoms for the Oct2005 breakout, the Mar2008 1000 top, the Oct 2008 bottom, and the recent 931 break out alert. It is testing 1033 top.
14259
re Gold ~ I called Gold tops and bottoms for the Oct2005 breakout, the Mar2008 1000 top, the Oct 2008 bottom, and the recent 931 break out alert. It is testing 1033 top.
14259
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
The Fed day 08Oct29
The Fed Statement
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081029a.htm
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/10/spx-long-term-excess-of-tech-housing.html
We had decades of big bubbles which we are now working off the excess. Due to the globalism, American standard of living was dwindling for decades ever since the American saving was in downtrend, 1970s. Even though we are seeing financial market melt down in 2008, US wealth was in down trend for decades when we consider personal savings level, net asset value and US national debt.
We are not living in the same economic condition as in 1970s when American saving was positive and when US trade deficit was low. Therefore, a comparison between 1970s and 2008 is illogical as surrounding circumstance is quite different.
Our economic condition is much like the Japanese in 1990, and since then, they have regenerated themselves financially and spiritually, i.e. Japanese spirit as a nation. We are not ready yet. American spirit is NOT regenerated, NOT EVEN CLOSE, far from it.
http://tinyurl.com/6pwkll
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081029a.htm
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/10/spx-long-term-excess-of-tech-housing.html
We had decades of big bubbles which we are now working off the excess. Due to the globalism, American standard of living was dwindling for decades ever since the American saving was in downtrend, 1970s. Even though we are seeing financial market melt down in 2008, US wealth was in down trend for decades when we consider personal savings level, net asset value and US national debt.
We are not living in the same economic condition as in 1970s when American saving was positive and when US trade deficit was low. Therefore, a comparison between 1970s and 2008 is illogical as surrounding circumstance is quite different.
Our economic condition is much like the Japanese in 1990, and since then, they have regenerated themselves financially and spiritually, i.e. Japanese spirit as a nation. We are not ready yet. American spirit is NOT regenerated, NOT EVEN CLOSE, far from it.
http://tinyurl.com/6pwkll
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)