Bernanke-BlackRock-etc holding trillions waiting someone else

Bernanke - BlackRock Doll etc are still hyping markets while US Debt is bubbling up -- suggesting that they are still holding multi-trillions of stocks waiting for someone else to buy from them.

Who are still naive and dump enough to again fool into market hype -- not insiders as they are selling at record high levels.

All what we have seen since Mar 2009 is hyping and pumping markets while literally robbing US Treasury in trillions. They are sitting on multi-trillions in profit, but they are still sitting on those stocks waiting for someone else so that they can dump their multi-trillions worth of stocks.




Insider Selling Jumps to a Record as Stocks Climb to Highest in Two Yearshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-11/insider-selling-jumps-to-a-record-as-stocks-reach-two-year-high.html

Bernanke-BlackRock-etc holding trillions waiting someone else
Bernanke - BlackRock Doll etc are still hyping markets while US Debt is bubbling up -- suggesting that they are still holding multi-trillions of stocks waiting for someone else to buy from them.

Who are still naive and dump enough to again fool into market hype -- not insiders as they are selling at record high levels.

~~~

Quote: bloomberg

Executives at 125 companies in the S&P 500 unloaded shares between Nov. 3 and Nov. 9, while sellers outnumbered buyers by more than 12 to 1. The readings are the highest based on data going back to January 2004, according to Princeton, New Jersey- based InsiderScore.com, which analyzes insider transactions disclosed to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Total net sales reached $4.5 billion, helped by Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer’s divestment of about $1.34 billion in his first stock sale in seven years.

Insider Selling Hits All Time Record Of $4.5 Billion In Prior Week As Everyone Is Getting Out
Tyler Durden on 11/11/2010 09:31 -0500

Insiders have officially marked the top of the stock market: last week's insider selling of all stocks (not just S&P) hit an all time record of $4.5 billion. This is the biggest weekly number ever recorded by tracking company InsiderScore.com: as Sentiment Trader highlights no other week before had more than $2 billion in net selling. Furthermore, selling in just S&P companies hit a whopping $2.8 billion: over 4 times more than the week prior! As such the ratio of insider selling to buying is now meaningless. Even Bloomberg, which traditionally just posts the data without providing commentary to it, highlighted this ridiculous outlier: "Insider selling at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies reached a record in the past week as executives took advantage of a two-year high in the stock-market to sell their shares." We hope those retail investors who dared to reemerge in the stock market and play some hot potatoes with the big boys, enjoy their brief profit as they once again end up being the biggest fools.

Here is a stunning chart of insider trading activity, courtesy of SentimentTrader:

Stocks rose Monday following a jump in October retail sales and a handful of M&A news. Robert Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock, shared his outlook.

“We’ve been so macro-focused that we’ve lost sight of the fact that despite a weakish economic recovery, corporate America’s done a pretty good job,” Doll told CNBC.

“Revenue growth is improving, earnings growth started improving before that...companies are raising dividends, buying back stocks, engaging in M&A and some are actually investing in their businesses.”

Doll said investors should have some exposure to global cyclicals, industrials, energy, selective techs, retailers and media stocks. In addition, he advised looking into health care and telecom names as a hedge against a weak recovery.

“We’re suffering a little indigestion: the China tightening, renewed concerns about credit in Europe, the hangover from the election and QE2 (Fed’s quantitative easing) — these sorts of things are weighing on the market,” he explained.

“The dollar’s oversold, commodities have extended a little far, so I think we’re taking a pause, but I don’t think the cyclical bull market’s over.”

Corporate Insider Transaction update as of 091124

Corporate Insiders are continuing to unload - slight change from Oct 2009.
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/10/insider-selling-continues.html

Insider/Institutional Transactions: Insider selling continues

Insider selling is increased to 74% up from Sept 2009.

Insider Transactions as of 9/11/2009

Markets traded to major resistances and finish the day with doji reversal formations with massive negative divergences with Megaphone/RST and Rising Wedges.

$COMPX 2080.90
$INDU 9605.41
$INX 1042.73

Traded to targets of SPX 1050, DOW 9650, and Nasdaq 2100.

USD is trading at 76 support and gold is trading at 1010 resistance.

Markets are all trading at major resistances at pivotal juncture.

I noted that the week ending on 9/11/2009 is a cycle pivot week.

This is Quadruple Witching week. Markets were pushing up based on massive debt spending which was basically just transferring billions from Treasury to the financial markets and excuse to hype financial markets with stimulus, i.e. debt.

The futures are showing a slightly negative.

Markets are hoping for US consumers to fall into the same trap of spending their life savings, but as we have seen during the 912 Unite march, Americans are starting to wake up. The 912 Unite march has just begun.

Americans will not be fooled again! At least, hope not!!

Insider Transactions as of 9/5/2009

Insider Selling as of 8/28/2009

SP500 INSIDER TRANSACTIONS - continues to sell into rallies.
As shown on the SP500 list of insider transaction activities, over 67.40% of insiders are selling into rallies and 15.60% in no action.

The insider selling has increasing during the last few months.

*** 76% insiders are selling based on entire stocks of 6646.

Insider Transactions update as of June 26, 2009

Insider Transaction Analysis 090619

Market Update & Insider Transaction Analysis

Not many are convinced that markets are in a correction period as we are in Quad OE week and as markets have sold off in light volumes.

As noted earlier, markets bounced off from the intraday supports, however, market price actions are clearly showing downside momentum as we can see on daily indicators. This is after weeks of showing negative divergences in price and breath actions as previously noted.

$COMPX 1803.07
$INDU 8577.90
$INX 919.65

We will see how the Quad OE week ends; however, the two key events are not helpful for markets.

Markets are disappointed about 2 major factors:

1) The election outcome in Iran, and
2) The N.Korea actions.

These factors are not helpful for our economy.

Furthermore, we are continuing to see negative news which are not surprising, however, such as the highest credit card defaults since we are debt-spending economy without genuine job growth as millions are still going through financial crisis and out-of-jobs.

In this globalism environment, especially after decades of overspending, we will not see genuine economic growth.

Technically, as noted, SPX and DOW traded targeted 950 and 8800, respectively; and now we have seen a pull-back today. While intraday price actions are now appearing to be oversold, in a correction period, the reverse of the price action on the uptrend would be the same to downside, except usually sharper.

We have huge price vacuum since the March 6 low because markets have not shown a meaningful correction. While we need to see a confirmation of a break of the today lows, I am holding the same view that the correction is just started and markets are still quite overbought.

Volatility traded higher as alerted after showing positive divergences at the intermediate supports as noted on May 21.

As the week unfolds, we will see how the week ends; however, as previously noted, the next cycle turn is mid July.

So far, not many is thinking that we are in a correction period as shown on low trading volumes today.

Reality of our economy can be assess by the insiders of SP500 companies as the insiders are dealing with day-to-day business operations.
As shown on the SP500 list of insider transaction activities, over 90% of insiders are selling into rallies in a far greater percent than 9% buying activity with lower percent.

I noted on this a few weeks ago based on the TrimTab report as on the May 18, 2009 newsletter.

Today, my analysis of insider transaction activities shows the same as we can see the selling activities highlighted light-yellow column.

As noted on the previous commentaries, market price actions are easy to manipulated, not like our economy.

We had a report that "Credit-Card" defulats jumped to Record High in May. And it is not surprising to hear the news as we know that we have millions who are going through financial crisis.

Over 10% insider sell
IBM insiders are selling at 14.27%
TXN insiders are selling at 8.73%
MSFT insiders are selling at 3.2%

Those insider sellings are just a few examples of big cap companies are selling into the rallies.

* The evidence of the insider selling data is confirming the fact that the markets are selling into rallies which I commented during the last few weeks.

* The detailed analysis of the insider transactions is confirming market internals and price actions showing negative divergences.

Market Insider: The Week Ahead

A slight thaw in the credit freeze could warm up some cautious buying in battered stocks in the week ahead.

But even so, the market will be subject to wild swings and could attempt to retest lows as investors struggle with the idea of a weakening economy.

"Next week's going to be the week of truth," said Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations. "We're going to watch not so much the economics. This is all about finance. We're going to see if money starts to move."

There is little fresh economic data, but a heavy calendar of earnings news will get the market's attention. Blue chips like American Express , Boeing , McDonald's , and Microsoft report third quarter results, as well as more than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies.

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Identifying Capitulation: How to Tell We've Hit Bottom

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the economy on Capitol Hill Monday before the House Budget Committee. OPEC also holds an emergency meeting Friday, at which it is expected to discuss production cuts to battle the sharp drop in crude prices.

Stocks rose more than 4 percent in the past week, the best weekly gain since March, 2003. The week was so volatile that it included the best day since 1933 and the worst since 1987. The Dow finished up 401 points, or 4.75 percent to 8852, while the S&P 500 rose 41, or 4.6 percent to 940.55. This follows the prior week's record 18 percent decline.

Investor Warren Buffett gave the market a shot of confidence Friday when he said stocks are so beaten down that he is buying stocks for his personal account, which traditionally has held Treasurys.

Jerry Castellini, president of CastleArk Management said invesotrs have been sidelined by fear and he expects to see some hunting for bargains. He said he was buying the emerging markets etf this past week and battered natural gas stocks. "There's going to be some wake up next week when everyone goes: 'Wow, the financial system is now solvent again. It's October. I'm down for the year. I'm going to buy some of these beaten up names," he said.

"There's been too many distractions in too many areas for this to be a fair pricing of risk in the system. We may very well go back down again, but it has to feel like if you took Libor down to 3 percent, people would come out of the woods," he said.

Credit Un-Crunching?

It was the credit markets where the good news was happening by the end of the week, particularly in the area of short-term financing. Each day this past week, the rates on Libor, the closely watched bank to bank lending rate, continued to creep lower, and there were some signs of life in commercial paper market. Two year swap spreads have come down dramatically.

On Friday, traders reported that a major bank was actively lending in the interbank market. On Tuesday, the U.S. government announced it would guarantee interbank lending and said it was injecting capital into banks, similar to steps taken by other central banks.

CNBC.com Pre-Markets

World Markets Overview

U.S. futures and Pre-Market Data

Get Credit Spreads Data Here

"What you're seeing is incremental advancement," said Kevin Ferry of Cronus Futures Management.

"It is improving, if you look at the vital signs..But we haven't even moved the patient out of intensive care and into a normal room," said Ferry. He said if you look at eurodollar futures, which settle to three-month Libor, they show an optimism that Libor rates will continue to recalibrate and move lower.

"If you look at forward three-month settlement in the futures market they were moving in the 3 to 3.5 percent area. Now, they are moving to the 3, 2.5 level," he said. Three-month libor last settled at 4.419 percent.

Ferry expects to continue to see incremental improvements. "You'll probably see the government buying mortgage-backed securities and buying Fannie and Freddie paper," he said. Buyers have been flocking into one and three-month T-bill traders say that foreign central banks are among those buyers.

"Where are the foreigners? The great amount of agency paper they were buying, they are systematically moving away from agencies and moving into Treasurys. It's what I call the new conundrum," Ferry said.

While short term funding markets are showing small signs of life, spreads are still wide in the corporate and at at record levels in the high-yield market.

In Treasurys, the 10-year fell 27/32 for the week, raising its yield to 3.938 per cent. The two-year was yielding 1.624 percent. The dollar rose 1.2 percent against the yen for the week and was just fractionally higher against the euro at $1.3406 per euro.

For stocks to stabilize, traders say they need to see continued improvement in credit markets. "Does the stock market pop the champagne corks or not? Next week will tell us if there is a retest," said Cashin.

Econorama

There is little data on the calendar. On Monday, leading indicators for September are reported. Weekly jobless claims are reported Thursday, and existing home sales for September are reported Friday. Weekly oil inventories will be reported Wednesday morning.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is scheduled to speak at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Tuesday.

Oil Drill

Oil rose on Friday to $71.85 per barrel, but it was down 7.5 per cent for the week, a move that certainly has given OPEC some concern. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries called an emergency meeting for Friday to discuss production cuts.

"I'm fully expecting a production cut upwards of a million barrels, if not more," said John Kilduff, senior vice president at M.F. Global. "They're going to react aggressively to this. The key to it though is Saudi Arabia."

"The Saudis don't want to do it, but in the interest in keeping some modicum of cohesion, they're' going to do it," said Kilduff, a CNBC contributor. "...If they cut and Kuwait cuts, pretty much the cut will be affective and implemented."

Kilduff said he expects crude prices to stay in the $75 to $76 per barrel range with an upper band of $80. "At least with this first cut, you won't see the cheating that bedeviled the cartel in the old days," he said.

Earnings Central

On Monday, American Express and Texas Instruments report earnings. Caterpillar, Coach, Dupont, MMM, Pfizer, BlackRock and State Street report before the bell Tuesday. Apple and Yahoo report after the bell that day. (See more coming earnings below.)

On Wednesday, AT&T, Boeing, Conoco, McDonald's, Merck, and Philip Morris report Wednesday morning and Amazon, Amgen, Pulte Homes and Sallie Mae report after the bell that day.

Altria, UPS, Bristol Myers, and Union Pacific report Thursday morning. Microsoft, Burlington Northern, Aflac and Chubb report after the close Thursday. On Friday, Ericsson reports ahead of the open.

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

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