Market Commentary - Monday Thanks, Big Blue IBM!

SPX update: SPX closed at 1416.25 with IBM good earning news. As noted on 1/9/08, markets have traded above the pivotal supports, for SPX 1378.

I commented on different cycles with supporting cycle notations. In summary, markets are in late 8 year cycle and, of course, 4.5 yr cycles as 9yr cycle is a standard fixed cycle. Note that SPX remained in a trading range for 2007. The successful wave {5} target will be 1600-1650. Corresponding DOW near 14500 +/-, Nasdaq 3000 +/- and Qs 60 +/-.

Considering the oversold market with positive divergences, I think that we will likely see a bottom building at this level. And we have seen positive comments on the markets today.

Having said that, it is better to be cautious as markets are still jittery about the financial sector and potential recession even though I think that financial markets were preparing for the jitters since housing market top in mid 2005.

As noted earlier, I think that markets have priced in a lot of bad news going into Q4 earning report, not like Q3 when markets were pricing in good news as price actions have shown up. Therefore, any good news would be helping the markets.

We have PPI and C earning in the morning, markets could be volatile while I hope that markets have priced in a lot of bad news. INTC & LLTC in AH.

Good luck

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Date:1/9/2008 7:55:33 PM
Post #of 5413

SPX closed at 1409.13 after reversing at 1378.07. As noted earlier closing above 1400 is a good sign of reversal with the price formation ending {4} of {5}.

Market Commentary - Friday Double Tongued Bernanke

BERNANKE has "double tongue" and does not deliever what he says.

Evil greed bloody day - making one of the worst breadth lower than Oct 2002. Any more to say?

One point is that markets have not breached the Wednesday low.

Until proven otherwise: Markets were playing fool games all along while, I think, they, the top of the big money chain - the bosses of Bernanke, had a full fooling biz plan from beginning to ending. When big money owns all banks, it is just a matter of juggling to fool everyone.

Why are they crushing USA... of course, it is the biggest money making melting pot.

Re: BofA Countrywise Deal


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Women in Housing and Finance, oh baby
By Ben Bernanke
1/11/08 2:25 PM EST | Washington DC

As I made clear in my previous post, I’d never give any credence to the Wall Street bankers’ advice on cutting interest rates. However, the media (NYT, WSJ, Kudlow) portrayed my most recent remarks as a capitulation to the base bankers’ demands to cut interest rates.

None of those lightweight articles focused on the host of my speech, which was a group called Women in Housing and Finance. No one in housing and finance has done well recently, and the women are no exception. That industry longs for a big fed-bailout.

Had Men in Housing and Finance asked me to cut interest rates, I would have promptly rebuffed them. However, the Women in Housing and Finance packed the room full of money honeys.

Prior to my speech, the ladies of housing peppered me with remarks including, “I like a man who can take substantive actions as needed to support growth,” and “How hard is your money?”.

Naturally, I became flustered, which led to me saying some uncharacteristically aggressive things in my speech.

http://www.newsgroper.com/ben-bernanke/2008/01/11/women-housing-finance-baby/
__________________


Oh, hell, we, many americans, will see you in hell, B.S. Bernanke, the master.

oops, you don't believe in hell.

Remember, obviously, many thinks that you can not handle our economy.

They have their staff economists feed the New York Times’ Louis Uchitelle a story headlined “For Bernanke, a Question of Toughness” — questioning if I have the balls for the job.


Bernanke let Inflation Speculators go nuts with "Inflation Anticipation". He let inflation anticipation sky high by suggesting interest rate cut, but does not deliver.

Market Commentary - Thursday

With good economic news, markets have rallied today, DOW closed at 12853.09, SPX 1420.33, Qs 47.99, and Nasdaq 2446.80 which are the intraday resistances after the two day rally.

Markets reversed from the pivotal supports and the reversal volumes were quite good.

Even after the two day rally, intraday is not quite overbought because we had volatile swings today.

Markets have unfilled gaps, and will be volatile with earning news.

Live chart links for major markets

We need to see good consolidation without breaking the supports which noted yesterday.

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I noted that we saw the worst first week of New Year performance since 1937 and now we have, "Bears Exceed Bulls by Most in 17 Years, Investor Poll Says" The bearish sentiment is extremely high which is often contrarian indicator. Seeing the extreme bearish sentiment is understandable as we are seeing subprime melt down.

So far, Bernanke has shown good management of the financial market as we see relatively stable market than we could have faced. With his brilliance, markets have survived even though we have a lot of slicing and dicing going on with individual stocks as I noted since Oct 2007, especially, with noting weak breadth.

Bernanke didn't lower interest rate because of high inflation speculation with Gold as we can see that USD is trading lower causing higher oil price. Oil price priced in geopolitical risk premium as well. I noted that markets are trading like schizophrenic because the market sentiment can change so quickly with price volatility.

For this reason, I noted that it would be better to be cautious in 2008. As Bernanke noted today, we could see the Fed making necessary moves to help market condition.

Market Summary

A Countrywide rescue cheers Wall St.

The Dow jumps 118 on news that Bank of America may take over troubled Countrywide Financial. Fed boss Bernanke vows 'substantive' action to help the economy. Delta Air Lines seeks a merger partner. Wal-Mart was a rare winner on holiday sales.
Stocks jumped today on the possibility that Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) will acquire Countrywide Financial (CFC, news, msgs), the nation's largest mortgage lender and one of the most troubled players in the subprime-mortgage crisis.

The second big rally in as many days also continued on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's promise that the central bank stands ready to move aggressively to help stave off a recession.

Market Commentary - Wednesday Market Reversal

Qs closed at 47.92 after reversing at 46.46 which is 61% of Mar2007 and about 40% of Jun-Jul2006 rally. It is 15% correction from 10/31/07 high. Also, there are other technical analysis that I do showing the support.

As shown on the weekly chart, it is weekly uptrend line support.

I have noted that I was looking for a reversal to trade up for the next few months after a sharp correction which is one of the worst first week of new year performance since 1937. Also after the INTC correction, I noted that much of bad earning news is priced in as we can see on INTC chart, it has fallen off from cliff as if the company reported bad earning news. This is different from the last earning report season when market priced in good news. Now I think that market has priced in bad news, so any good earning reports will take markets higher.

SPX closed at 1409.13 after reversing at 1378.07. As noted earlier closing above 1400 is a good sign of reversal with the price formation ending {4} of {5}.

DOW closed at 12735.31 after reversing at 12501.76 which is LT TL support from Oct 2002 as well as the Aug 2007 low support. My other technical analysis shows the supports at the reversal points today.

Today's market action is a good sign of market reversal; therefore, I think that markets have bottomed for the next few months. Will look for a confirmation.

Bernanke will speak at 1 pm tomorrow.

Hopefully he will not say something will scare market even though DOW p/c ratio is negative.




This is an interesting picture reminding me of the 1977 movie, "Close Encounters of the Third Kind". I rarely watch movie twice, but I have watched the movie twice at that time. There was something about the movie which I liked.

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/01/close-encounters-of-third-kind.html

Market Commentary - Monday

Markets closed above the weekly supports with hammer formations, as noted earlier, SPX 1400 + and Qs 47.43 supports are held. Nasdaq closed at 2499.46 making me wondering about whether it could not put up 0.54 to close above 2500. DOW also bounced off from the Nov 2007 low support.

However, AAPL and other big cap stocks price formations are not so encouraging, so need to see. Obviously many are bearish on the market. The headline, "The financial sector is expected to weigh on corporate earnings in the fourth quarter. But outside the sector, the news is upbeat", is stating that earnings will be fine, and will see.

There is a rumor which was going on for months that we could see a conflict with Iran and many newsletter writers were written on the subject, so I sensed, we could indeed see it?

With the volatility which we have seen today, markets are so far so good as we didn't see market crash as I think that Bernanke lived up to what he claims than Paulson did.

The HOD today was the resistances, so we need to see breaking above the resistances to hope to see prices trading to upside, in the mean time, markets are showing "hammers" with higher volumes showing a potential support at where market could trade up. We are now entering "earning report" month and it will see volatility.