Apple is the big cap moving markets as it is a component for major indexes - SPX, Nasdaq, OEX, etc.
Markets are trading near at pivotal juncture, and, with Apple earning report, will we see more market price manipulation to upside during the next week even if markets are overbought and showing N.D. for a few month?
This is a SPX monthly chart which is based on technical analysis -- the formation and the price action is indeed interesting and basic according to market cycle, in this case, more precise as noted it as "7-yr cycle", what we must keep in mind is that the fundamental does not support the current price actions since the March 2009 low. As noted, technical analysis is very easy to manipulate as we now have trillion funds pushing markets.
Markets traded to SPX 950 target today which is the target zone area of 930- 950.
* With the Jun 1 rally, markets are now trading well above the resistances which I noted, during the last couple of weeks, as: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-; as we can see the closing prices showing on the left.
* I commented on SPX 1000 +/- target since a break above 850 on 3/26/2009. Even though I anticipated a meaningful pull back, markets have now showing a pull back as we have seen a continuation of the recent trend.
* Profit taking: However, for short term, markets are very overbought and showing negative divergences on most of breadth chart analysis. Therefore, so short term, we will likely see a pull back as we have seen news on a couple of large investors have cashed in profits which could be an early signal of a series of profit taking to follow as the recent bullish sentiment can easily be a contrarian indicator.
* Mid year cycle at the end of June 2009: As previously noted, a major mid year cycle term date is next pivotal market juncture. The recent very short term cycle pivot was, so far, to upside after a consolidation period, we have seen
* Contrary to daily breadth actions which are showing negative divergences, weekly breadth actions are showing bullish price actions.
* Markets are very overbought as shown on the weekly breadth actions.
* Market sentiment turned very bullish as markets continue to trade higher even though fundamentals do not show improvement as we do not see no job growth.
* Even though daily breadth action is showing negative divergences, weekly breadth action is very bullish as the initial buy program in March low has turned markets very bullish with trending markets during the last 3 months.
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Market Correction Markets have shown a mild correction of 3-4% during the OE week as we anticipated. We have the FOMC minutes release on coming Wed which we already know that the Fed Bernanke saw Greenshoots of reviving Economy. For that reason, markets rallied 30-40% off from the March 6 low. We now continue to anticipate a correction period going into the Mid year CIT. However, we haven't seen stronger selling momentum yet as technical reading is not severely damaged; therefore, it is better to be cautious during the next week. Markets are entering into a pivotal week for a sell-signal confirmation even though we now have a correction signal after the OE week. * QQQQ 33.37 after trading to QQQQ 33.23 within the range which I noted and noted consolidating trading session.* SPX 882.88 after trading to SPX 878.94 traded below the 881 S.* DOW 8268.64 after trading to 8230.17 - the lower price channel S.* Nasdaq 1680.14 after trading to 1676.56 - the 60min, 200ma support.SP500: 900 ~ 880 /850/800/750 DOW: 8420 ~ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1710 ~ 1660/1620 QQQQ: 33.70 ~ 33/32.50/31.50/30.70
SPX 15min After the 3-4% correction during the OE week, would the vst downtrend continue during the next week?
* Even though 60min SPX chart is showing a moderate positive divergence, daily price action is continuing to show negative divergences which I previously noted.* We now see a vst downtrend and could see a continuation of the downtrend during the next week.* A violation of the vst downtrend as shown on to 15min SPX chart, SPX 900 +/- remains as a resistance.
As anticipated, markets have shown a moderate profit taking OE week and finished off the week at SPX 882.88. We have seen about a net 3-4% correction of the recent 30-40% rally.* We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. ** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* Markets already rallied 30-40% during March 6 - May 9, 2009. * Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%. * Markets are very overbought!
* So far, we are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. * Even though 60min charts are showing a moderate positive divergence, daily price action is continuing to show negative divergences which I previously noted.* After the light correction during the OE week, markets finished the week near at scondary supports, therefore, this week will be another pivotal week with the FOMC min release. * Markets priced in stabilization of markets and a moderate rebound during the second half of the year.* This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. >> Continued
Consolidation Day Markets bounced up today as anticipated to work off intraday oversold condition and traded in the range which I noted yesterday.Markets will likely consolidate to finish off the OE week.
Markets traded to upper range. * QQQQ 33.40 after trading to QQQQ 33.08 within the range which I noted yesterday* SPX 893.07 after trading to SPX 898.36 traded below the 900 R.* DOW 8331.32 after trading to 8376.64.* Nasdaq 1689.21 after trading to 1701.22.SP500: 920 ~ 880 /850 DOW: 8420 ~ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1710 ~ 1660/1620 QQQQ: 33.70 ~ 33/31.50
How long markets will rally based on hope? Markets already discounted Economic recovery during the second half of the year as we have seen 30%-40% rally and many stocks have gone up 100%-200%.
SPX 15 min As anticipated, markets bounced up and now show moderate correction of oversold condition as SPX traded up to 898.36 which is near the 900 R for this correction. 15 min chart is showing overbought condition and is trading under the vst downtrend line as shown on the chart. The trading range was within the anticipated range, and now, I am showing higher range to noted resistance of 905 +/-, however, it will likely stay under the recent vst downtrend as traders will sell near at SPX 900. If the resistance is violated, as previously noted, SPX 905 is a key pivotal resistance.
As anticipated, markets bounced up and now show moderate correction of oversold condition as SPX traded up to 898.36 which is near the 900 R for this correction. We have seen about a net 3% correction of the recent 30-40% rally.* We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. ** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* Markets already rallied 30-40%. * Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%. * Markets are very overbought!
SPY Daily Markets completed wave I or A.
* 93.22 on 5/8/2009 is likely the top of the impulse wave which started on 3/6/2009. * SPY rallied 25.73 points, 38.25% in 62 days. * During the major market rally of 30-40%, we haven't seen a meaningful correction, and now we will probably see a correction of 10%-15% going into the mid year CIT.* Markets are extremely unreal to hold up -- as we have seen.
DOW Daily * DOW closed at 8331.32 above trendline supports. * 8587.55 on 5/8/2009 is probably a top for this correction.* It has not violated various trendline supports.* Correction target: 7500 +/- * Some of indicators which I show is a guideline as I use various methods for market analysis.re Indicators* As previously noted, you may want to test various indicator sets using plateforms with backtesting capabilities such as Metastock.
DOW 60min * DOW +46.63, +0.56%* As anticipated, we saw a bounce to resolve oversold market condition.* Based on bad economic data, market rallied and closed with a moderate gain. * DOW 60min does not show a violation of trend supports as shown on the chart. * While markets could continue to push upside, the overbought condition and negative divergences for weeks does now show a good reason to be in the markets, especially it does not provide good opportunity as markets can suddenly sell off.
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* QQQQ 33.05 after trading to QQQQ 32.96 below the 33 pivot which I noted yesterday.
* SPX 883.92 after trading to SPX 882.80 as anticipated key pivot for a correction confirmation.
* SPY 88.80 after trading to SPY 88.50.
* DOW 8284.89 after trading to 8262.43
* Nasdaq 1664.19 after trading to 1664.19 below 1669 pivot which I noted at 1:19 pm.
SP500:900 ~ 880 /850
DOW: 8400 ~ 8250 / 8000
Nasdaq:1700 ~ 1660/1620
QQQQ:33.50 ~ 33/31.50
* Intraday is becoming oversold - will reassess after a bounce which I am anticipating.
Markets are overboughtas many stocks are already traded up over 100%, and chasing overbought markets will mostly result in significant loss, except day tradingand VST trading.
SPX 15 min
Pivotal area:SPX 920-888
With the mild sell-off/profit taking, we now have moderate sell-momentumwhich can be seen on major market indexes.SPX traded to 882.90 then bounced up closing at 883.92.Intraday is now oversold, however, with theinitial profit taking phase, we will likely see a continuation of down trend into Mid year CIT which previously noted.
* Intraday is becoming oversold - will reassess after a bounce which I am anticipating.
*** SPX 875 +/-
Key area which is a pivot for intraday bounce.
* SPX 908 +/-
Intraday resistance at where traders would likely sell.
We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT.While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line.Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization.As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets.On the other hand, we could see other bearish scenarios which are 1) retesting the March 6, 2009 low, and 2) trading to SPX 555 and DOW 5555.At this point, I do not see the bearish case scenario during this year.
** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up.Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought
* Markets already rallied 30-40%.
* Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%.
* Markets are very overbought!
QQQQ 60min
Qs closed at 33.02 below the 200ma which I previously commented that closing below the uptrend moving average would give us a signal as a confirmation for a correction.
* We now see a converging 50/200 with which we may be a confirmation of a ST trend reversal, as weekly price actions are very overbought.
QQQQ Daily
We have seen a range expansion day today:
< trading range for the last several days as shown on the QQQQ daily chart trading above the 200 dma.It again closedat 33.93 above it today.>>
* We may see a faster momentum to downside as markets as previously noted that faster markets rise, faster markets will fall.
*Key downside target:
QQQQ 30.50 +/- unfilled gap
*The outlook will be adjusted when necessary.
SPX 60min
SPX 60min bounced up at the 880 lower price channel support 882.80 +/-
* We may see a faster momentum to downside as markets as previously noted that faster markets rise, faster markets will fall.
*908 - 900 bounce R
*Pivot 875 +/-
*The outlook will be adjusted when necessary.
SPX Daily
SPX 60min bounced up at the 880 lower price channel support 882.80 +/-
* We may see a faster momentum to downside as markets as previously noted that faster markets rise, faster markets will fall.
*908 - 900 bounce R
*Pivot 875 +/-
*SPX800 - 750 correction target
by mid-year CIT.
We may see more correction during this down turn cycle as I previously noted that the Fed intervention is usually retested.Downside targets will be adjusted as markets unfold.
Profit taking Markets are still trading above intraday supports which noted below after markets bounced off from the SPX 896.46 which is the lower support from the price channel - Nasdaq 1695.87 and QQQQ 33.52, respectively . DOW bounced up from 8366.65 support. The major markets reversed around 1 pm finishing the day with hammer formations at the intraday supports. Even though we have seen piercing the first support area today as noted LOD (low of day), closing above hammer formations above the pivots is not encouraging. SP500: 900 /880 /850 DOW: 8400/ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1700/1660/1620 QQQQ: 33.50/33/31.50 Markets are very overbought as many stocks are already traded up over 100%, and chasing overbought markets will mostly result in significant loss, except day trading and VST trading.
Pivot range
Pivotal area: SPX 920-888
With the intraday reversal today, markets are now relatively better positioned noting significant price supports even though markets are very overbought as we can see Goldman Abby comment on CNBC. With the comment, profit taking is better suited for the very overbought and extended markets.*** SPX 888 Key area which is pivotal juncture for a market correction.
SPX 875 Intraday bounce pivot
SPX 920 -930 is, of course, the red zone where some could be fooled into market hype. And, of course, markets could continue up. Higher markets goes up, further sell-off will be.
* QQQQ 33 +/- pivot * QQQQ 31 +/- unfilled gap
QQQQ 60min Since the Fed Bernanke has spoken on the 60min interview, markets have not fallen below the 200dma as shown on the QQQQ 60min chart, as example.
We now see a converging 50/200 with which we may be a confirmation of a ST trend reversal, as weekly price actions are very overbought. As noted, Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.
QQQQ Daily - very overbought We have a tight trading range for the last several days as shown on the QQQQ daily chart trading above the 200 dma. It again closed at 33.93 above it today. * With the 60min actions: Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation. * With the 31 +/- unfilled gap, a market correction would be reasonable expectation.
Nasdaq Daily - very overbought
Nasdaq led the recent rally, and now it is showing a sign of leading the markets to downside even though price action does not reflect it yet. Internal momentum is showing an early sell signal after showing a few weeks of neg D breadth momentum.* We have not hear "Profit Taking" yet, hence, it is wise to take profit before many rush out the door. * Markets made easy 100% rally on the Obama - the Fed hope speech, and now markets are very overbought.
* It's time to take profit. Don't chase overbought markets.
Buying dips? Are you still think that markets will straight shoot up to DOW 9000/10000 and SPX 900/1000 without a meaning correction; hence, still buying all dips? Buying dips has been effective, so far, as markets have rallied 30-40% since the 3/6/2009 low. However, taking profit would be a good idea as many stocks have rallied over 100% SP500: 900 /880 /850 DOW: 8400/ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1700/1660/1620 QQQQ: 34/33.50/33/31.50
Intraday charts are now mixed for tomorrow after a moderate sell-off today. Did I hear "Profit taking" sell-off? No, I have not heard it yet, but when we do, many will rush out as many stocks are rallied over 100%. Because this is an OE week, we need to exercise a bit of skepticism, but a correction is overdue.
Market price actions are still quite strong as we have seen a bounce-off from intraday lows.During the trading hours, at 10:14 am, I alerted that the markets have bounced up from pivotal intraday supports -- which are the LOD.
Certainly, Bernanke intervension has put a cement bottom from which markets have rallied 30%-40% off from the low on 3/6/2009.
So far, we do not have a confirmation for a sell-signal even though we have an early sell-signal from very overbought market condition on weekly and after showing distribution on daily price actions. 3/11/2009
Intraday alerts today which were HOD and LOD.
Monday, May 11, 2009 11:57:02 AM "Green Shoots" turned into "Green Trees". Intra S/R is still in tact. Intraday R $COMPX 1744.13 $INDU 8569.23 $INX 918.72
Monday, May 11, 2009 10:14:10 AM Markets are still trading above intraday pivotal supports bouncing up from the S. SPX 915R SPX 900 and Qs 33.50 $COMPX 1705.87 $INDU 8422.92 $INX 908.68 ~. DIA 84.33 IWM 49.79 QID 37.32 QLD 32.90 QQQQ 33.68 SMH 19.25 SPY 91.04
Markets are very overbought as markets traded higher to SPX 930.17, today. DOW and SPX gained the last 8 weeks out of 9 weeks, and Nasdaq 9th week gain. I commented on SPX 950+/- Profit targets as massive mega funds exits: Faster markets rally, faster markets will sell off.
The Fed and the Gov intervention of financial markets is usually retested as we can see the Mar and Aug 2007 lows, when the Fed Bernanke intervened, were retested in a few month after making tops. We could see a Profit Taking OE week, however, we do not have technical confirmation for a sell. Profit targets: SPX 950, DOW 8600, SPY 83, QQQQ 35.50, Nasdaq 1750, CRB 250, CRX 650, Silver 14, Copper 220, Gold hold, Oil 60-70.
Nasdaq target 1700 is met as alerted It formed RST same as Qs.
GOLD reversal 867 as alerted on 4/17 and now met target at 925. Will update
SPY hanging man at 88/87 targets met at triple resistances of double top, backtests of down trendline and up trendline. While rising wedge is broken to downside price channel is still in tact. Based on all other technical readings, reversal correction area.
QQQQ dual Resistance with RST and TL backtest at 34 as alerted.
Even though reversal/pull back is expected, it didn't happen and now too many traders are screaming for reversal now with obvious TA readings of overbought and neg D. However, still look for a reversal- correction.
With FOMC meeting during next week, major markets traded to targets area, e.g. Qs 48 +/-. Qs near daily DTL after tagging 47.79 with 48 +/-R, DOW 12891.86 with 13000 R, Nasdaq 2422.93 with daily DTL at 2450 +/-.
Since the double bottom, as noted on 3/17 and 3/18, after testing LT supports, as shown on the weekly charts markets traded to weekly resistances after breaking out of the falling wedges noted since 3/19/08. Falling wedge formation is a bullish pattern. Since the 3/17/08 double bottom at SPX 1256, DOW 11756, Nas 2155, and Qs 41, markets have rallied 11%, 10%, 14%, and 17% respectively from the lows. I noted the double bottom in Jan-Mar 2008 likely to be the low for 2008 with the target of SPX 1650 as commented on 1/25/08.
