Consolidation Day Markets bounced up today as anticipated to work off intraday oversold condition and traded in the range which I noted yesterday.Markets will likely consolidate to finish off the OE week.
Markets traded to upper range. * QQQQ 33.40 after trading to QQQQ 33.08 within the range which I noted yesterday* SPX 893.07 after trading to SPX 898.36 traded below the 900 R.* DOW 8331.32 after trading to 8376.64.* Nasdaq 1689.21 after trading to 1701.22.SP500: 920 ~ 880 /850
DOW: 8420 ~ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1710 ~ 1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.70 ~ 33/31.50
How long markets will rally based on hope? Markets already discounted Economic recovery during the second half of the year as we have seen 30%-40% rally and many stocks have gone up 100%-200%.
SPX 15 min
As anticipated, markets bounced up and now show moderate correction of oversold condition as SPX traded up to 898.36 which is near the 900 R for this correction.
15 min chart is showing overbought condition and is trading under the vst downtrend line as shown on the chart. The trading range was within the anticipated range, and now, I am showing higher range to noted resistance of 905 +/-, however, it will likely stay under the recent vst downtrend as traders will sell near at SPX 900. If the resistance is violated, as previously noted, SPX 905 is a key pivotal resistance.
As anticipated, markets bounced up and now show moderate correction of oversold condition as SPX traded up to 898.36 which is near the 900 R for this correction. We have seen about a net 3% correction of the recent 30-40% rally.* We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. ** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* Markets already rallied 30-40%.
* Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%.
* Markets are very overbought!
SPY Daily
Markets completed wave I or A.
* 93.22 on 5/8/2009 is likely the top of the impulse wave which started on 3/6/2009.
* SPY rallied 25.73 points, 38.25% in 62 days. * During the major market rally of 30-40%, we haven't seen a meaningful correction, and now we will probably see a correction of 10%-15% going into the mid year CIT.* Markets are extremely unreal to hold up -- as we have seen.
DOW Daily
* DOW closed at 8331.32 above trendline supports.
* 8587.55 on 5/8/2009 is probably a top for this correction.* It has not violated various trendline supports.* Correction target: 7500 +/-
* Some of indicators which I show is a guideline as I use various methods for market analysis.re Indicators* As previously noted, you may want to test various indicator sets using plateforms with backtesting capabilities such as Metastock.
DOW 60min
* DOW +46.63, +0.56%* As anticipated, we saw a bounce to resolve oversold market condition.* Based on bad economic data, market rallied and closed with a moderate gain.
* DOW 60min does not show a violation of trend supports as shown on the chart.
* While markets could continue to push upside, the overbought condition and negative divergences for weeks does now show a good reason to be in the markets, especially it does not provide good opportunity as markets can suddenly sell off.
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