Sunday, May 24, 2009

Moving Average System


The Ivy ~ absurd and ridiculously simple that these guys wrote entire book based on the moving average system which I noted during 2005 when I was on StockCharts Public List and called the October 2005 bottom.

Of course, also, many others have used moving average system. However, these guys are selling the book like hot cake, and many fall for it.

Any moving average system does not work for all markets even though it is working on many markets during certain periods.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
Packaged so simple, the crowd would fall for it. It mentions monthly 10mma in the book; however, it is just scam as we do not have enough data to prove it working in most instances in financial market history.

We only have about 300 years of data within ever changing financial market environment which most of the data is practically absolute as the financial market has dynamically changed during the last few decades.

If you apply 10 day moving average to the 300 year data, or at least 20 year data on daily price actions, you will see a bunch of negative returns on many stocks.

It is just too ridiculous to package it to sell, and many are jumping on the bandwagon on scam like scheme just because it has "Harvard" in it.
Well, Cramer is a Harvard brand.

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