DOW Sell-off was orderly.
A poster compared the OE sell on DOW to 1987 sell. However, even though we saw severe sell-off during the OE week, the DOW price action shows a symmetrical price actions since Mar 14, 2007 low ~ Aug 16, 2007 low ~ Jan 18, 2008 low.
Market LT trendlines are broken.
During the OE week, market long term trendlines are broken as shown on the DOW weekly chart. SPX and Nasdaq LT TL are also broken; hence, we now can acknowledge that we are in bear market for a serious correction which started since the Oct 11, 2007 top.
This is not surprising as I noted that $Tran, $SOX and $BKX were leading the market, specifically on 12/12/07; and noted that I wasn't bullish during 2008. While fresh bulls were screaming that we are making new highs and screaming bears were wrong during the last few years, which I pointed out that he was going overboard, the bear markets have sneaked upon us during the OE week.
Nevertheless, all major brokerage firms have claimed that SPX will trade to 1500-1700 during 2008; so, let's see whether markets will regroup. They might restate their market forecast for 2008 which is irresponsible if they readjust too often; but, they could restate during mid year if market condition continues to deteriorate.
We need to hear good news.
It was a big disappointment for bulls for sure, in fact, Mark Hulbert noted the top 10 best market timers were bullish, remember his comment. I had bull visits as shown below as an example. He was a long time poster who I knew during the last two years on CS, but maybe bulls will be back; but, LT TL supports are broken during the OE week.
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Posted by: cyclepsychic
In reply to: None Date:12/12/2007 5:13:29 PM
Post #4864 of 4864
Not everything is perfect, but you must listen to me..2008 estimated S&P earnings at $97.40 and market can certainly trade at reasonable 17 times. You must quit being bearish at the risk of losing your "good" market timing reputation. We just finished a 10+! correction...it is over. Stay bullish
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