Cycle update

Cycle update: bull/bear, I know that I am swing back and forth between bull/bear since Oct 2007 in which you will find bull-bear sentiment swing back and forth. The emotional swing back and forth, like many of us, is because we have high volatility in financial market. What else is new right? Whether it is terrorist threat, War like mid 2006, or ARM melt news, we had high uncertainty financially and geopolitically.

With the uncertainly, we've had relatively stable financial market, Thanks to the Fed Bernanke!

Now back to "Cycle", I, at the moment, disagree with Bob's comment, of course, I have to agree with him, if we do not find support at the weekly supports which I noted, yesterday, that we have 9 mo cycle low due in Nov-Dec 2007 after the Mar 2007 low. On 12/23/2007, I commented that we are in late stage of 8 year cycle after 4 year cycle bottom during Jun-Jul 2007. I will elaborate on the LT cycle later, and ST, we are in rising 9mo cycle period.

The extreme negative sentiment is often "contrarian sentiment" as it has been during the last few years and of course we have, as always, traders who are saying, "This time is different". However, considering surrounding circumstances, I will give a good probability that market will likely find supports at this level after the sharp sell-off during the last week after the recent decline started on 10/11/07. The point 3) is also often a contrarian indicator and SPX is showing positive divergence.

Successful support will carry markets to upside for the next few months. Breaking the current weekly supports, e.g. SPX 1400, signals of course bearish market.

Will see how the day ends, but so far market action is showing a support at SPX 1400 + and Qs 47.43 weekly S.