Market Signals 080617

~~ 60m ~~ as noted, intraday is pulling back. The price momentum is weakening and as noted the last two day bounce from the 6/12/08 low was on very low volume. This is a good sign as we don't want to see continuing bubbles as bigger bubbles will be resulting in bigger disaster. 60m macd is about to turn negative as well as other momentum oscillators.

~~~ $BKX ~~~ close at 65.10 after traded to 64.73 nearing to 63 +/- target. (ref 8609, 8731)

~~ LT Market analysis ~~

Weekly and Monthly price action momentum is decreasing. Note how price momentum on monthly chart shown with StochRSI set 100 is showing negative divergence on Oct 2007 top comparing to Mar 2000 top. I commented on the fractal formation analysis on my previous post. Also noted on the recent economic bounce since Oct 2002 is based on the ARM bubble after the decade bubble in 1990s. We didn't have real economic strength and growth since Oct 2002 bottom, but rather it was artificially stimulatd economic growth to avoid recession due to the big tech bubble and 911 disaster.

Previously, I commented on 8 (8.6) year cycles with charts. We now have receding 2nd 8 yr cycle ~ 16yr cycle.

Considering the recent hyperbole energy and commodity price actions after ARM R.E. disaster, we will be heading to more difficult economy since many americans are in financial trouble.

The noted above internal price action is reflecting LT negative divergence on the Oct 2007 top compared to Mar 2000 confirming the real economic and fundamental inernal weak strength. Monthly internal strength was weakening prior Oct 2007 top showing negative divergence, and now we are seeing price actions showing negative trend.

The boom and bust cycles which we had during the last two decades wiped out many americans and current economic condition is not favorable for real growth and will take longer than several month.

Other Comments on LT view (ref 9068) also previous comments

~~ Caveat on big caps ~~

I am working on hot links, but it is taking many hours. It is work-in-progess.


Markets are not what it used to be just a few years ago. Caveat on big caps, as we now have trillions of international funds are pushing around big caps and commodities for quick profit. It is apparent that the tillions are moving markets with colluded information; so, unexpectedly, markets can move strong with sudden reversal. Markets are expensive with weakening economy.


~~~ DCB market in low volume ~~~