Saturday, November 1, 2008
SPX LT Monthly Twin Peak
The SPX long term chart is quite descriptive with a big twin peak formation in a sense that we, as a nation, went through much difficulties as many are in financial trouble due to Tech/R.E bubbleburst. Volcker, the father of US bubble, started to create a small bubble which has taken SPX 200% rally in 4 years prior to 1987 crash. Then, Greenspan came along and has taken markets to sky in 1990s even after 1998 financial crisis, markets traded up until March 2000. We now have the grand twin peaks with housing and derivative bubble and bust. As noted before, while many thinks that markets are out-of-control driven by crowd sentiment as the tulip mania, I noted that markets are in control by the invisible hands. During the last couple of years, now, many are aware of the big money power controlling financial and political affairs.
As noted before, the best case scenario for the money masters intention is to create tribulation for Americans because we are spiritually backsliding; and, the worst case scenario would be their intention was ruthless greed for money misleading massive sheepsters with materialism brainwash using immorality as well. Only God knows entire facts and motivation of the super money power.
Technically, while many are now turning bullish after the last week sharp rally, markets are near at pivotal juncture 800 +/-. The wave formation is A-B-C from 2000 peak. Considering many Americans are now emptied savings, home equities, and debt; we are in long term bear market as I don't think that we are starting a fresh bull market for long term. Nevertheless, the date, 10/10/08 is too convincing. Technically we still have wave 5 to form which is a logical target near 650 +/-.
For ST, many market participants already turned bullish. But I believe that we don't have strong, new economic growth expectation providing realistic bullish scenario. We are hearing "Stimulus package 2" which is just more government spending on the top of massive national debt. We need to create real productive job growth.
Many young people needs to invent new products using creative minds, but many are fallen into financial market trading for quick fix. Hopefully, we still have young inventors who can focus on real contribution to our society.
ES, emini traded below Oct 2002 low which could be taken as early signal that markets will trade lower to SPX 650 +/- as technical and fundamental factors suggest. Furthermore, monthly internal price actions do not show a positive divergences with extremely volatile formation as we can see on the October 2008 long tailed, big candle. The Oct2008 price action will likely consolidate before market can find a long term bottom.
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