You would wonder what system has worked best since the March 6 low.
The best system since the March low is "Trend-following" system.
The Effective Trading System since 3/6/2009
The only effective system working since the March low is Trend-Following System as I previously noted that the trend has not violated.
SPY Daily
* 92.53
* My trend-following indicator is on trending market mode as shown on the chart.
* Trend-following markets which we have seen since the 3/6/2009. As I have noted that we do not have a violation of the trend to confirm a meaningful pull back.
Obviously, markets were fading many other technical readings for those who were looking for a pull back. The bottomline is that markets were pushing higher in light volumes using shorters as fueling the markets regardless of what real economic prospect is.
* Of course, financial media is always hype one way or the other to sway market sentiment - now, projecting bullish scenario to lure in small investors.
* A breakout above 930-950, as previously note is targeting SPX 1000 +/-.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
GM: Government Motor
GM: Government Motor, now we are all enslaved by the Gov, actually the FED communism. We are deceived.
All courageous and dedicated American solders and veterans, like I am, let's not be deceived anymore even though we were deceived that we were fighting and serving the country, not serving rich folks money scams. First bankrupting millions with deception, now, swindling entire country.
________
Kudlow: US Now Owns GM, But Won't Get Paid Back
Posted By: Larry Kudlow | Anchor
| 29 May 2009 | 06:34 PM ET
Get ready folks: America is about to own a car company.
As of Monday, we the taxpayers will own more than 70 percent of GM. Whether the company will be formally renamed Government Motors remains to be seen. But that’s what it will be.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31005877/
All courageous and dedicated American solders and veterans, like I am, let's not be deceived anymore even though we were deceived that we were fighting and serving the country, not serving rich folks money scams. First bankrupting millions with deception, now, swindling entire country.
________
Kudlow: US Now Owns GM, But Won't Get Paid Back
Posted By: Larry Kudlow | Anchor
| 29 May 2009 | 06:34 PM ET
Get ready folks: America is about to own a car company.
As of Monday, we the taxpayers will own more than 70 percent of GM. Whether the company will be formally renamed Government Motors remains to be seen. But that’s what it will be.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31005877/
Friday, May 29, 2009
Market Analysis & Forecast 05/29/2009
Massively manipulated markets
Needlessly to say, markets are all pumped up going into close, as noted End of Month (EOM) manipulation, closing at the IT resistances which noted during the week. * At this point, it is obvious that markets are pumped up to convey false hope until small funds are lured in to be smashed as many have experienced in the past decades. * Technically, markets are showing extremely negative divergences, however, big funds are pushing markets at will trading against many normal technical reading, for now, the market actions are good for those who are naively holding with false hope.
OBVIOUS TA: As previously noted the Intermediate resistances, markets are continuing to push up without any signs of pulling back -- just because many were expecting a pull back. Furthermore, markets are still luring in small funds before dropping markets off when there is less incentives to hold up the markets.
Previous note * Markets are trading near at Intermediate resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
http://trend-signals.com/Analysis/090529.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw
Peril of Globalism
Market manipulation, e.g. replacing AAPL with GM.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw
FAZ -- this is an example of big capital criminal manipulation.
The Market Manipulation
The market manipulation based on the manipulated data which we have seen during the past decades which deceived millions of Americans. Absolutely nonsense as usual.
______________
Stocks gained more than 1 percent Friday as a late rally buoyed stocks to their session highs.
Investors were encouraged by a jump in consumer sentiment and less-bad GDP report. Oil stocks benefited from the rise in oil prices. Dell ended higher after beating its earnings target. GM ended at 75 cents a share. http://www.cnbc.com/id/31003396/
______________
Stocks gained more than 1 percent Friday as a late rally buoyed stocks to their session highs.
Investors were encouraged by a jump in consumer sentiment and less-bad GDP report. Oil stocks benefited from the rise in oil prices. Dell ended higher after beating its earnings target. GM ended at 75 cents a share. http://www.cnbc.com/id/31003396/
Market makers manipulating markets
Market makers manipulating markets based on traders/financial boards/websites/newsletters tell them what they think; and also, some of market makers have entire buy/sell/short/long statistics, therefore trading against majority in different timeframes.
Also the sentiment to buy or to sell using media hype is to get the crowd to do what they want puppets to do.
That's how millions, billions, trillions are made.
Aside the manipulation, now entire traders are talking about mid year cycle like broken records.
Also the sentiment to buy or to sell using media hype is to get the crowd to do what they want puppets to do.
That's how millions, billions, trillions are made.
Aside the manipulation, now entire traders are talking about mid year cycle like broken records.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Massive Debt Spending Economy
After trading to noted resistances, SPX closing at 893.06 and DOW 8300.02 retracing 62% of the rally which we have seen yesterday.
* Markets are trading near major resistances as previously noted that we are seeing consolidation in symmetrical/descending triangle formations in SPX and DOW while QQQQ and Nasdaq are showing nearly triple top formations. Markets are still trading in the pivotal trading range.
* Markets are too optimistic about economic outlook rallying on massive debt spending which is just same as the misleading economic condition which we have seen during the last decades during when millions of Americans ultimately filed bankruptcies.
*VIX/VXN have risen to 32.36 and 33.16, respectively, as noted on 5/20, reversing from intermediate support. I commented on the VIX/VXN relative to market actions since 2004, and now, Volatility is of course orchestrated to in sync with market actions to manipulate market directions.
* SPX 880+/- and DOW 8200/8000 pivots.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
Massive Debt Spending Economy
Misleading Economic data led millions to bankruptcies:
As noted earlier, the Roubini's economic outlook is too optimistic that we will see the end of recession and US economy will rebound in 2010. Our economy since the R.E. bubble/burst is based on massive debt spending so called the "Economic Stimulus" programs. Based on the debt spending, financial markets have rallied 30-40% which is really bogus economic growth.
As previously noted that the 2002-2007 economy was based on illusive and manipulated GDP data reporting better than real GDP. Massive Americans believed in deceptive economic condition using the R.E. bubble which triggered millions of Americans into bankruptcies. Now we have massive debt spending economy which is just propelling deterioration of real wealth of Americans in reality.
The Government reported Economic data is manipulated, so that realistic economic numbers would be much worse, if not, detrimental. Unless we see serious policy changes in our economic fundamentals to produce more goods and to retain jobs in the country, we will continue to see massive wealth loss for massive Americans who are misled just same as in the past decades. In order to recover from the massive wealth loss and to stop regressive wealth, we need to see massive changes in economic policies. Otherwise, it is just massive deception.
* Markets are trading near major resistances as previously noted that we are seeing consolidation in symmetrical/descending triangle formations in SPX and DOW while QQQQ and Nasdaq are showing nearly triple top formations. Markets are still trading in the pivotal trading range.
* Markets are too optimistic about economic outlook rallying on massive debt spending which is just same as the misleading economic condition which we have seen during the last decades during when millions of Americans ultimately filed bankruptcies.
*VIX/VXN have risen to 32.36 and 33.16, respectively, as noted on 5/20, reversing from intermediate support. I commented on the VIX/VXN relative to market actions since 2004, and now, Volatility is of course orchestrated to in sync with market actions to manipulate market directions.
* SPX 880+/- and DOW 8200/8000 pivots.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
Massive Debt Spending Economy
Misleading Economic data led millions to bankruptcies:
As noted earlier, the Roubini's economic outlook is too optimistic that we will see the end of recession and US economy will rebound in 2010. Our economy since the R.E. bubble/burst is based on massive debt spending so called the "Economic Stimulus" programs. Based on the debt spending, financial markets have rallied 30-40% which is really bogus economic growth.
As previously noted that the 2002-2007 economy was based on illusive and manipulated GDP data reporting better than real GDP. Massive Americans believed in deceptive economic condition using the R.E. bubble which triggered millions of Americans into bankruptcies. Now we have massive debt spending economy which is just propelling deterioration of real wealth of Americans in reality.
The Government reported Economic data is manipulated, so that realistic economic numbers would be much worse, if not, detrimental. Unless we see serious policy changes in our economic fundamentals to produce more goods and to retain jobs in the country, we will continue to see massive wealth loss for massive Americans who are misled just same as in the past decades. In order to recover from the massive wealth loss and to stop regressive wealth, we need to see massive changes in economic policies. Otherwise, it is just massive deception.
Reported Economic data painting vs Real Economic data
As previously noted that the 2002-2007 economy was based on illusive and manipulated GDP data reporting better than real GDP which was the deceptive economic condition which triggered millions of Americans into bankruptcies.
Now we have massive debt spending economy which is just propelling deterioration of real wealth of Americans in reality. The Gov reported Economic data is manipulated, so that realistic economic numbers would be much worse, if not, detrimental. Unless we see serious policy changes in our economic fundamentals to produce more goods and to retain jobs in the country, we will continue to see massive wealth loss for massive Americans who are misled just same as in the past decades.
In order to recover from the massive wealth loss and to stop regressive wealth, we need to change massive changes in economic policies. Otherwise, it is just massive deception.
______________
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage applications filed last week fell a seasonally-adjusted 14.2% last week, compared with the week before, as rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ticked up, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, released on Wednesday.
Applications were up 28.5% for the week ended May 22, compared with the same week in 2008. The MBA survey covers about one-half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Now we have massive debt spending economy which is just propelling deterioration of real wealth of Americans in reality. The Gov reported Economic data is manipulated, so that realistic economic numbers would be much worse, if not, detrimental. Unless we see serious policy changes in our economic fundamentals to produce more goods and to retain jobs in the country, we will continue to see massive wealth loss for massive Americans who are misled just same as in the past decades.
In order to recover from the massive wealth loss and to stop regressive wealth, we need to change massive changes in economic policies. Otherwise, it is just massive deception.
______________
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage applications filed last week fell a seasonally-adjusted 14.2% last week, compared with the week before, as rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ticked up, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, released on Wednesday.
Applications were up 28.5% for the week ended May 22, compared with the same week in 2008. The MBA survey covers about one-half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
The Gov Massive Debt Spending
Massive Debt spending: re Far More Serious 'Stress Test' For Financial Markets
Market pump based on the massive debt spending is just another big trap similar as the R.E. bubble/crash.
______________
That test comes in the form of the US government selling a massive amount of new Treasuries this week. Specifically, the government sold two-year notes on Tuesday, and will sell five-year notes on Wednesday and seven-year paper on Thursday
The pass/fail will be determined by how well these auctions are received – in other words, how well investors digest all the pending supply.
As you know issuing debt is a cornerstone of the Obama plan to fund the massive stimulus – which is intended to drive the U.S. out of recession. But some pundits have questioned whether there’s that much demand out there for Treasuries.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30944136/
Market pump based on the massive debt spending is just another big trap similar as the R.E. bubble/crash.
______________
That test comes in the form of the US government selling a massive amount of new Treasuries this week. Specifically, the government sold two-year notes on Tuesday, and will sell five-year notes on Wednesday and seven-year paper on Thursday
The pass/fail will be determined by how well these auctions are received – in other words, how well investors digest all the pending supply.
As you know issuing debt is a cornerstone of the Obama plan to fund the massive stimulus – which is intended to drive the U.S. out of recession. But some pundits have questioned whether there’s that much demand out there for Treasuries.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30944136/
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Market Analysis & Forecast 05/26/2009
Extremely Manipulative Markets
* With the twist of manipulated consumer confidence number, markets are pumped up -- just same as the R.E. bubble/crash. EOM manipulation.
* Without going into much details of market behavior as shown on the market performance statistics on the left, it is obvious now, markets are pumped up until small funds are sucked into the same old legally criminal activities.
* I have noted about SPX 1000 since 3/26/2009 that we could see SPX 1000 by breaking above 850. And now markets are trading near at the Pivotal juncture SPX 930 +/-.
* On 5/18/2009 newsletter, I noted that I will not be cheer leading the extreme market manipulation; therefore, it is obvious at this juncture, I resolve the market irrationality by getting less involved as it is a big waste of time, money, and effort. So, weekly market summary is suffice. If market condition changes, I will of course note the changes.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-* SPX 880 and DOW 8200/8000 pivots.
* With the twist of manipulated consumer confidence number, markets are pumped up -- just same as the R.E. bubble/crash. EOM manipulation.
* Without going into much details of market behavior as shown on the market performance statistics on the left, it is obvious now, markets are pumped up until small funds are sucked into the same old legally criminal activities.
* I have noted about SPX 1000 since 3/26/2009 that we could see SPX 1000 by breaking above 850. And now markets are trading near at the Pivotal juncture SPX 930 +/-.
* On 5/18/2009 newsletter, I noted that I will not be cheer leading the extreme market manipulation; therefore, it is obvious at this juncture, I resolve the market irrationality by getting less involved as it is a big waste of time, money, and effort. So, weekly market summary is suffice. If market condition changes, I will of course note the changes.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-* SPX 880 and DOW 8200/8000 pivots.
Market Logic
Markets are much about deceiving logic - as most of people trying to rationalize and to be logical dealing with markets -- therefore, markets are going against the crowd as the big money is made by deceiving many.
Markets always find "New Baits" to deceive or to legally falsify.
___________
Sick-O: Art Cashin: North Korea Nukes 'Perversely' Good for US
Sliding home prices, more trouble in the Eurozone and another North Korean nuclear bomb test: How will these affect the stock markets?
Art Cashin, UBS Financial Services director of floor operations, offered CNBC his insights on Tuesday.
Traders engaged in "a lot" of chatter over Kim Jong-Il's latest saber-rattling, Cashin said — but not out of fear of North Korean aggression.
Markets always find "New Baits" to deceive or to legally falsify.
___________
Sick-O: Art Cashin: North Korea Nukes 'Perversely' Good for US
Sliding home prices, more trouble in the Eurozone and another North Korean nuclear bomb test: How will these affect the stock markets?
Art Cashin, UBS Financial Services director of floor operations, offered CNBC his insights on Tuesday.
Traders engaged in "a lot" of chatter over Kim Jong-Il's latest saber-rattling, Cashin said — but not out of fear of North Korean aggression.
Market Analysis & Forecast
Bearish Churning Markets at PivotsMarkets are continuing to trade above intraday support area even though we are seeing some technical violation of uptrend lines.
*VIX/VXN have risen to 32.63 and 31.87, respectively, as noted that the volatility was trading at intermediate support.
*VIX/VXN have risen to 32.63 and 31.87, respectively, as noted that the volatility was trading at intermediate support. I commented on the VIX/VXN relative to market actions since 2004, and now, Volatility is of course orchestrated to in sync with market actions to manipulate market directions. This is easy to do when you have entire money printing machine to gear market actions.
* SPX 880 and DOW 8200/8000 pivots.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
* Futures are trading at the lower end of 3 weeks trading range -- targeting SPX 820 as next pivot with a break.
*VIX/VXN have risen to 32.63 and 31.87, respectively, as noted that the volatility was trading at intermediate support.
*VIX/VXN have risen to 32.63 and 31.87, respectively, as noted that the volatility was trading at intermediate support. I commented on the VIX/VXN relative to market actions since 2004, and now, Volatility is of course orchestrated to in sync with market actions to manipulate market directions. This is easy to do when you have entire money printing machine to gear market actions.
* SPX 880 and DOW 8200/8000 pivots.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
* Futures are trading at the lower end of 3 weeks trading range -- targeting SPX 820 as next pivot with a break.
Monday, May 25, 2009
Deteriorating price pattern: FAS & FAZ
FAS/FAZ deteriorating Price: As previously, noted FAS/FAZ prices are both deteriorating as shown on the price charts. To briefly comment on the price impact, there are several contributing reasons such as 1) loss of values from rebalancing, 2) manipulation of market makers, and 3) competition among market markers, and other factors. The aforementioned stated speculations are based on what I have observed.Fact is that prices are dramatically deteriorating since its inception, however, when we compare the banking indexes, the dramatic price actions are within the context which we are considering even though the FAS/FAS have been around only about 7 months since Nov 2008. The 3x price action is much like that of financial indexes performance in a much shorter period.
Based on the short life span of 3x, especially the FAS and FAZ price actions, can we conclude that the 3x ETF by Direxion would fail to live up to the longevity of SPY, DIA, and IWM as example. FAS and FAZ, among 3x ETFs, look to be exceptions and the price actions are exaggerated by the recent banking industry volatility. Furthermore, the exploding trading volumes and the management fee do not help to retain the value of the stocks.
Based on the short life span of 3x, especially the FAS and FAZ price actions, can we conclude that the 3x ETF by Direxion would fail to live up to the longevity of SPY, DIA, and IWM as example. FAS and FAZ, among 3x ETFs, look to be exceptions and the price actions are exaggerated by the recent banking industry volatility. Furthermore, the exploding trading volumes and the management fee do not help to retain the value of the stocks.
Future market actions
As previously noted, the housing bottom is yet to come as well as commercial property capitulation.
Future markets are showing, however, very mixed, technically, it is easy to be bearish. Fundamentally, it is reasonable for markets pull back and market manipulation can last only so long as eventually fundamentals will trump over short term market actions.
Futures are trading above IT supports.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Housing Market Being Pounded By New Wave of Foreclosures
The New York Times
| 25 May 2009 | 12:14 PM ET
As job losses rise, growing numbers of American homeowners with once solid credit are falling behind on their mortgages, amplifying a wave of foreclosures.
In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories.
With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30929084/
Future markets are showing, however, very mixed, technically, it is easy to be bearish. Fundamentally, it is reasonable for markets pull back and market manipulation can last only so long as eventually fundamentals will trump over short term market actions.
Futures are trading above IT supports.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Housing Market Being Pounded By New Wave of Foreclosures
The New York Times
| 25 May 2009 | 12:14 PM ET
As job losses rise, growing numbers of American homeowners with once solid credit are falling behind on their mortgages, amplifying a wave of foreclosures.
In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories.
With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30929084/
Deteriorating American Wealth
Fed to Keep Rates Low as Economy Recovers: Kohn
| 23 May 2009 | 06:13 PM ET
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to keep benchmark interest rates near zero for a while in an economy that is pulling out of a steep decline and appears on course for a very gradual recovery, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said Saturday.
"The economy is only now beginning to show signs that it might be stabilizing, and the upturn, when it begins, is likely to be gradual amid the balance sheet repair of financial intermediaries and households," Kohn told a conference at Princeton University.
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30905345/
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Moving Average System
The Ivy ~ absurd and ridiculously simple that these guys wrote entire book based on the moving average system which I noted during 2005 when I was on StockCharts Public List and called the October 2005 bottom.
Of course, also, many others have used moving average system. However, these guys are selling the book like hot cake, and many fall for it.
Any moving average system does not work for all markets even though it is working on many markets during certain periods.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
Packaged so simple, the crowd would fall for it. It mentions monthly 10mma in the book; however, it is just scam as we do not have enough data to prove it working in most instances in financial market history.
We only have about 300 years of data within ever changing financial market environment which most of the data is practically absolute as the financial market has dynamically changed during the last few decades.
If you apply 10 day moving average to the 300 year data, or at least 20 year data on daily price actions, you will see a bunch of negative returns on many stocks.
It is just too ridiculous to package it to sell, and many are jumping on the bandwagon on scam like scheme just because it has "Harvard" in it. Well, Cramer is a Harvard brand.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Validity of Forward PE
Markets are continuing to use speculative forward PE/raised earning estimates which are often proven to be false expectation as we can validate whether the Forward PE was reasonable.
The following comparative cross-period PE vs FPE charts are showing that forward PE is often used and market manipulation as forward PE is speculation. Even though forward PE and earning estimate is based on reasonable expectation, markets have proven that the forward PE was unreliable and overpriced.
DOW 30 PE & Forward PE as of May 22, 2009 on page 2-3
* Forward PE in average is showing around 15.
* We have not seen warning signs based on the forward PE forecast during the last year. * Note that no earning for C, AA, and GM with forward PE of C 13 and AA 15.5 while GM is still negative. * JPM PE is over 60. * Forward PE is unrealistic just same as we didn't see a warning signal during the last year. Forward PE didn't warn us about the market sell-off which we have seen during the latter half of 2008.
Validity of Forward PE
The following comparative cross-period PE vs FPE charts are showing that forward PE is often used and market manipulation as forward PE is speculation. Even though forward PE and earning estimate is based on reasonable expectation, markets have proven that the forward PE was unreliable and overpriced.
DOW 30 PE & Forward PE as of May 22, 2009 on page 2-3
* Forward PE in average is showing around 15.
* We have not seen warning signs based on the forward PE forecast during the last year. * Note that no earning for C, AA, and GM with forward PE of C 13 and AA 15.5 while GM is still negative. * JPM PE is over 60. * Forward PE is unrealistic just same as we didn't see a warning signal during the last year. Forward PE didn't warn us about the market sell-off which we have seen during the latter half of 2008.
Validity of Forward PE
FAS and FAZ
Some are speculating that FAZ/FAS is going to zero as we can see the prices of bull and bear fund prices are deteriorating fairly quickly. However, I do not think that the stocks will further deteriorate as it can fast rise with manipulation which took the prices down. The prices can rise as quickly as it has fallen.
The overlay prices comparative analysis is showing there is no close correlation between FAZ and FAS even though the overall price trend is showing low correlation.
FAZ/FAS charts show and speak loud enough to see what the prices are doing - deteriorating prices in a short period.
Conversely, SKF and XLF do show a bit more stable price activities.
Even though there were fine prints on FAZ/FAS prospectus, we may see some law suits against the firm.
The overlay prices comparative analysis is showing there is no close correlation between FAZ and FAS even though the overall price trend is showing low correlation.
FAZ/FAS charts show and speak loud enough to see what the prices are doing - deteriorating prices in a short period.
Conversely, SKF and XLF do show a bit more stable price activities.
Even though there were fine prints on FAZ/FAS prospectus, we may see some law suits against the firm.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Market update
May 21, 2009 Market Analysis and Forecast
Bearish Churning Markets at PivotsMarkets are continuing to trade above intraday support area even though we are seeing some technical violation of uptrend lines.
* As noted during the trading hours, markets bounced off from the intraday low and support, SPX 879.61, DOW 8221.01, and Nasdaq 1677.77.* Contrarily, VIX/VXN have risen to 31.35 and 31.20, respectively, as noted that the volatility is at intermediate support. I commented on the VIX/VXN relative to market actions since 2004, and now, Volatility is of course orchestrated to in sync with market actions to manipulate market directions. This is easy to do when you have entire money printing machine to gear market actions.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-* As previously noted, it is detrimental to hype markets while we do not have genuine economic growth as prices will go up while real wealth is not generated; hence, we will see hidden inflation. Don't be fooled by the market hype as, at this point, many are waiting to unload positions to late comers.
DOW daily
* DOW 8292.13
* DOW traded to intraday support, 8221.01, and rallied back closing with a falling hammer formation.
* Markets are still waiting for sideline money to bite the bait.
* At this point, being in cash is safer as markets already rallied 30% from the low. If you have not exited markets, it was worth to stay in the markets. Evidently, there are still sideline money.
* Markets are continuing to show negative divergences. * The Fed forecasted lower GDP and job growth. Ref to the link on Page 1, FOMC Minutes.
EXTREME MARKET MANIPULATION
* Markets are still holding up - bouncing off from the intraday support areas which noted.* Markets were trading in trends even though we are seeing negative momentum in price and breath actions.
* Markets are showing highly manipulated price actions.
* With the higher volatility, markets are inherently possess higher risk.
* Financial markets are normally leading economy, however, remember that US household income has been demolished during the last decade for many.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Market Analysis & Forecast 05/20/2009
Market Analysis & Forecast 05/20/2009
http://trend-signals.com/Analysis/090520.htm
Bearish Churning Markets at Pivots
Fed lowered GDP expectation
Markets reversed after the Fed minutes were released with downgrading GDP expectation. Markets are still trading high multiples to trying to lure in small investors as cnbc reported that we still have 4.3% side line cash which is slightly reduced from 4.8%.
* We know that markets are overpriced as, in reality, we are less wealthier than last few decades as shown on the long term chart on page 3.
* With the misrepresentation of economic reality priced into markets, expecting markets to trade higher is certainly unrealistic and manipulative even though markets can easily be taken to upside.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances:
SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
* As previously noted, it is deterimental to hype markets while we do not have genuine economic growth as prices will go up while real wealth is not generated; hence, we will see hidden inflation. Don't be fooled by the market hype as, at this point, many are waiting to unload positions to late comers.
* Low volatility readings to VIX 26.57 / VXN 27.87 can be orchastrated.
* VIX/VXN are trading at IT supports.
DOW daily
* DOW 8422.04
* DOW rallied to 8600 resistance and pulled back closing with a falling hammer formation.
* Even though the formation is a bearish formation signaling a likely reversal based on the recent market actions and sentiment, it is better to be cautious and look for a confirmation for a break from a lower price channel shown on the DOW daily chart.
*At this point, being in cash is safer as markets already rallied 30% from the low. If you have not exited markets, it was worth to stay in the markets. Evidently, there are still saideline money.
* Markets are continuing to show negative divergences.
* The Fed forecasted lower GDP and job growth. Ref to the link on Page 1, FOMC Minutes.
EXTREME MARKET MANIPULATION
* Markets are trading near at pivotal resistances.
* Markets were trading in strong trends even though we are seeing negative momentum in price and breath actions.
* Markets are showing highly manipulated price actions.
* With the higher volatility, markets are inherently possess higher risk.
* Financial markets are normally leading economy, however, remember that US household income has been demolished during the last decade for many.
http://trend-signals.com/Analysis/090520.htm
Bearish Churning Markets at Pivots
Fed lowered GDP expectation
Markets reversed after the Fed minutes were released with downgrading GDP expectation. Markets are still trading high multiples to trying to lure in small investors as cnbc reported that we still have 4.3% side line cash which is slightly reduced from 4.8%.
* We know that markets are overpriced as, in reality, we are less wealthier than last few decades as shown on the long term chart on page 3.
* With the misrepresentation of economic reality priced into markets, expecting markets to trade higher is certainly unrealistic and manipulative even though markets can easily be taken to upside.
* Markets are trading near at major resistances:
SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq 1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-
* As previously noted, it is deterimental to hype markets while we do not have genuine economic growth as prices will go up while real wealth is not generated; hence, we will see hidden inflation. Don't be fooled by the market hype as, at this point, many are waiting to unload positions to late comers.
* Low volatility readings to VIX 26.57 / VXN 27.87 can be orchastrated.
* VIX/VXN are trading at IT supports.
DOW daily
* DOW 8422.04
* DOW rallied to 8600 resistance and pulled back closing with a falling hammer formation.
* Even though the formation is a bearish formation signaling a likely reversal based on the recent market actions and sentiment, it is better to be cautious and look for a confirmation for a break from a lower price channel shown on the DOW daily chart.
*At this point, being in cash is safer as markets already rallied 30% from the low. If you have not exited markets, it was worth to stay in the markets. Evidently, there are still saideline money.
* Markets are continuing to show negative divergences.
* The Fed forecasted lower GDP and job growth. Ref to the link on Page 1, FOMC Minutes.
EXTREME MARKET MANIPULATION
* Markets are trading near at pivotal resistances.
* Markets were trading in strong trends even though we are seeing negative momentum in price and breath actions.
* Markets are showing highly manipulated price actions.
* With the higher volatility, markets are inherently possess higher risk.
* Financial markets are normally leading economy, however, remember that US household income has been demolished during the last decade for many.
| May 20, 2009 Market Analysis and Forecast  |
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Market Analysis & Forecast
May 19, 2009 Market Analysis and Forecast
Bearish Churning Markets at Pivots
FOMC min on Wed, 5/20/2009
Markets consolidated the 3% gains which we have seen yesterday. We had very light trading volumes again as we have seen during the last several trading days.
* Markets are trading at pivotal resistances as VIX/VXN are manipulated to break to downside, however, as noted, small investors and sideline money participation often signals tops and bottoms. Evidently, markets are luring in sideline money. However, we are seeing very low trading volumes -- already summer trading session.
* Traders are gone to beach for Memorial Holiday.
* With the low VIX/VXN hype and holding up markets, we are continuing to see market manipulation as we already have seen 30-40% rally along with over 100% rallied stocks.
* The market condition is extremely misrepresenting real economic condition just same as what we have seen during the last decade.
* For short term trading, don't be fooled into buying markets as our economy is not nearly similar as that of 2002 or 2003 - a note on the GDP misrepresentation as example.
DOW daily
* DOW 8474.85
* DOW rallied back near down trend resistance and pulled back closing with a falling hammer formation.
* Even though the formation is a bearish formation signaling a likely reversal; however, based on the recent market actions and sentiment, it is better to be cautious and look for a confirmation for a break from a lower price channel shown on the DOW daily chart.
*At this point, being in cash is safer as markets already rallied 30% from the low. If you have not exited markets, it was worth to stay in the markets. Evidently, there are still saideline money.
* Markets are continuing to show negative divergences.
SPX 60min EW speculation (ST wave B or IT wave 5)
* Close at 908.13 as markets are trading near at IT pivotal resistances.
* Case 1: Markets completed ST wave A and ST wave B (SPX 800 +/-) is in progress. As shown on the SPX 60min chart.
* Case 2: Markets have completed IT wave 4 and are in progress of IT wave 5.
* Reasons for markets are still holding up: many traders are looking at the same traditional technical analysis, therefore, markets are fading the obviously informed technical readings as we have seen trend-ride price actions.
* SPX 930.17 and SPY 93.22 on 5/8/2009 is likely the top of the impulse wave which started on 3/6/2009 at SPX 666.79.
* SPY rallied 25.73 points, 38.25% in 62 days.
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Bearish Churning Markets at Pivots
FOMC min on Wed, 5/20/2009
Markets consolidated the 3% gains which we have seen yesterday. We had very light trading volumes again as we have seen during the last several trading days.
* Markets are trading at pivotal resistances as VIX/VXN are manipulated to break to downside, however, as noted, small investors and sideline money participation often signals tops and bottoms. Evidently, markets are luring in sideline money. However, we are seeing very low trading volumes -- already summer trading session.
* Traders are gone to beach for Memorial Holiday.
* With the low VIX/VXN hype and holding up markets, we are continuing to see market manipulation as we already have seen 30-40% rally along with over 100% rallied stocks.
* The market condition is extremely misrepresenting real economic condition just same as what we have seen during the last decade.
* For short term trading, don't be fooled into buying markets as our economy is not nearly similar as that of 2002 or 2003 - a note on the GDP misrepresentation as example.
DOW daily
* DOW 8474.85
* DOW rallied back near down trend resistance and pulled back closing with a falling hammer formation.
* Even though the formation is a bearish formation signaling a likely reversal; however, based on the recent market actions and sentiment, it is better to be cautious and look for a confirmation for a break from a lower price channel shown on the DOW daily chart.
*At this point, being in cash is safer as markets already rallied 30% from the low. If you have not exited markets, it was worth to stay in the markets. Evidently, there are still saideline money.
* Markets are continuing to show negative divergences.
SPX 60min EW speculation (ST wave B or IT wave 5)
* Close at 908.13 as markets are trading near at IT pivotal resistances.
* Case 1: Markets completed ST wave A and ST wave B (SPX 800 +/-) is in progress. As shown on the SPX 60min chart.
* Case 2: Markets have completed IT wave 4 and are in progress of IT wave 5.
* Reasons for markets are still holding up: many traders are looking at the same traditional technical analysis, therefore, markets are fading the obviously informed technical readings as we have seen trend-ride price actions.
* SPX 930.17 and SPY 93.22 on 5/8/2009 is likely the top of the impulse wave which started on 3/6/2009 at SPX 666.79.
* SPY rallied 25.73 points, 38.25% in 62 days.
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Monday, May 18, 2009
Market Analysis & Forecast 5/18/2009
ExtremeMarket Manipulation
Extremely bearish in longer term
when manipulation is over.
Markets have rallied about 3% in low trading volumes trying to hype up consumer sentiment; however, fundamental realities stay bearish, as an example, Trim Tab reported that insiders were selling into rallies.
* Eventually, market will collapse when not many are fooled into buying markets as fundamentals will be priced into markets. Market hype is bearish for many as prices will be hyped up - hence, hidden inflation, i.e. higher prices without real wealth.
Bubble/Crash Manipulation: If you are up for chasing this market which could be breaking out to upside trading to SPX 1000 +/- and DOW 10000, you are taking high risk. For conservative investors will not chase highly manipulated markets.
As stock market rallies, insiders sell, TrimTabs warns
Increase in shares outstanding last week was biggest this decade, firm says
May 18, 2009, 2:47 p.m. EST
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As the stock market rallied in recent months, company insiders have been selling, a sign that investors should exit, too, TrimTabs Investment Research said Monday.
"As investors have turned more upbeat, the smartest money in the stock market has been leaving the party," TrimTabs wrote in a note to clients.
TrimTabs, run by Charles Biderman, tracks share buybacks and acquisitions, along with new equity issuance by companies and stock buying and selling by chief executives and other corporate insiders.
This allows the firm to gauge the level of outstanding shares, or "float," in the market -- potentially useful information when trying to work out which way prices are heading next. It's particularly helpful because companies and their executives know more than outsiders such as investors, TrimTabs argues.
Judging by the behavior of these insiders in recent weeks, the signs aren't good for the stock market, the firm said Monday.
Last week there were $31.3 billion of new equity offerings, as many of the nation's largest banks sold stock to raise new capital, TrimTabs reported, noting that's the highest level of issuance this decade.
"Companies took advantage of the rally to flood the market with new shares," TrimTabs wrote.
Meanwhile, announced corporate buying was "almost non-existent," no new cash takeovers were unveiled and insiders sold $500 million worth of stock, the firm added.
May 18, 2009, 2:47 p.m. EST
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As the stock market rallied in recent months, company insiders have been selling, a sign that investors should exit, too, TrimTabs Investment Research said Monday.
"As investors have turned more upbeat, the smartest money in the stock market has been leaving the party," TrimTabs wrote in a note to clients.
TrimTabs, run by Charles Biderman, tracks share buybacks and acquisitions, along with new equity issuance by companies and stock buying and selling by chief executives and other corporate insiders.
This allows the firm to gauge the level of outstanding shares, or "float," in the market -- potentially useful information when trying to work out which way prices are heading next. It's particularly helpful because companies and their executives know more than outsiders such as investors, TrimTabs argues.
Judging by the behavior of these insiders in recent weeks, the signs aren't good for the stock market, the firm said Monday.
Last week there were $31.3 billion of new equity offerings, as many of the nation's largest banks sold stock to raise new capital, TrimTabs reported, noting that's the highest level of issuance this decade.
"Companies took advantage of the rally to flood the market with new shares," TrimTabs wrote.
Meanwhile, announced corporate buying was "almost non-existent," no new cash takeovers were unveiled and insiders sold $500 million worth of stock, the firm added.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 15
Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 15
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Market Correction Markets have shown a mild correction of 3-4% during the OE week as we anticipated. We have the FOMC minutes release on coming Wed which we already know that the Fed Bernanke saw Greenshoots of reviving Economy. For that reason, markets rallied 30-40% off from the March 6 low. We now continue to anticipate a correction period going into the Mid year CIT. However, we haven't seen stronger selling momentum yet as technical reading is not severely damaged; therefore, it is better to be cautious during the next week.
Markets are entering into a pivotal week for a sell-signal confirmation even though we now have a correction signal after the OE week. * QQQQ 33.37 after trading to QQQQ 33.23 within the range which I noted and noted consolidating trading session.* SPX 882.88 after trading to SPX 878.94 traded below the 881 S.* DOW 8268.64 after trading to 8230.17 - the lower price channel S.* Nasdaq 1680.14 after trading to 1676.56 - the 60min, 200ma support.SP500: 900 ~ 880 /850/800/750
DOW: 8420 ~ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1710 ~ 1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.70 ~ 33/32.50/31.50/30.70
SPX 15min
After the 3-4% correction during the OE week, would the vst downtrend continue during the next week?
* Even though 60min SPX chart is showing a moderate positive divergence, daily price action is continuing to show negative divergences which I previously noted.* We now see a vst downtrend and could see a continuation of the downtrend during the next week.* A violation of the vst downtrend as shown on to 15min SPX chart, SPX 900 +/- remains as a resistance.
As anticipated, markets have shown a moderate profit taking OE week and finished off the week at SPX 882.88. We have seen about a net 3-4% correction of the recent 30-40% rally.* We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. ** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* Markets already rallied 30-40% during March 6 - May 9, 2009.
* Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%.
* Markets are very overbought!
Other Market Updates
* Cnbc weekly analysis
* MSN money market summary
* So far, we are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line.
* Even though 60min charts are showing a moderate positive divergence, daily price action is continuing to show negative divergences which I previously noted.* After the light correction during the OE week, markets finished the week near at scondary supports, therefore, this week will be another pivotal week with the FOMC min release. * Markets priced in stabilization of markets and a moderate rebound during the second half of the year.* This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. >> Continued
To view in full screen, click the top-right corner: "Toggle Full Screen".
Market Correction Markets have shown a mild correction of 3-4% during the OE week as we anticipated. We have the FOMC minutes release on coming Wed which we already know that the Fed Bernanke saw Greenshoots of reviving Economy. For that reason, markets rallied 30-40% off from the March 6 low. We now continue to anticipate a correction period going into the Mid year CIT. However, we haven't seen stronger selling momentum yet as technical reading is not severely damaged; therefore, it is better to be cautious during the next week.
Markets are entering into a pivotal week for a sell-signal confirmation even though we now have a correction signal after the OE week. * QQQQ 33.37 after trading to QQQQ 33.23 within the range which I noted and noted consolidating trading session.* SPX 882.88 after trading to SPX 878.94 traded below the 881 S.* DOW 8268.64 after trading to 8230.17 - the lower price channel S.* Nasdaq 1680.14 after trading to 1676.56 - the 60min, 200ma support.SP500: 900 ~ 880 /850/800/750
DOW: 8420 ~ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1710 ~ 1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.70 ~ 33/32.50/31.50/30.70
SPX 15min
After the 3-4% correction during the OE week, would the vst downtrend continue during the next week?
* Even though 60min SPX chart is showing a moderate positive divergence, daily price action is continuing to show negative divergences which I previously noted.* We now see a vst downtrend and could see a continuation of the downtrend during the next week.* A violation of the vst downtrend as shown on to 15min SPX chart, SPX 900 +/- remains as a resistance.
As anticipated, markets have shown a moderate profit taking OE week and finished off the week at SPX 882.88. We have seen about a net 3-4% correction of the recent 30-40% rally.* We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. ** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* Markets already rallied 30-40% during March 6 - May 9, 2009.
* Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%.
* Markets are very overbought!
Other Market Updates
* Cnbc weekly analysis
* MSN money market summary
* So far, we are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line.
* Even though 60min charts are showing a moderate positive divergence, daily price action is continuing to show negative divergences which I previously noted.* After the light correction during the OE week, markets finished the week near at scondary supports, therefore, this week will be another pivotal week with the FOMC min release. * Markets priced in stabilization of markets and a moderate rebound during the second half of the year.* This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. >> Continued
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 14
Consolidation Day Markets bounced up today as anticipated to work off intraday oversold condition and traded in the range which I noted yesterday.Markets will likely consolidate to finish off the OE week.
Markets traded to upper range. * QQQQ 33.40 after trading to QQQQ 33.08 within the range which I noted yesterday* SPX 893.07 after trading to SPX 898.36 traded below the 900 R.* DOW 8331.32 after trading to 8376.64.* Nasdaq 1689.21 after trading to 1701.22.SP500: 920 ~ 880 /850
DOW: 8420 ~ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1710 ~ 1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.70 ~ 33/31.50
How long markets will rally based on hope? Markets already discounted Economic recovery during the second half of the year as we have seen 30%-40% rally and many stocks have gone up 100%-200%.
SPX 15 min
As anticipated, markets bounced up and now show moderate correction of oversold condition as SPX traded up to 898.36 which is near the 900 R for this correction.
15 min chart is showing overbought condition and is trading under the vst downtrend line as shown on the chart. The trading range was within the anticipated range, and now, I am showing higher range to noted resistance of 905 +/-, however, it will likely stay under the recent vst downtrend as traders will sell near at SPX 900. If the resistance is violated, as previously noted, SPX 905 is a key pivotal resistance.
As anticipated, markets bounced up and now show moderate correction of oversold condition as SPX traded up to 898.36 which is near the 900 R for this correction. We have seen about a net 3% correction of the recent 30-40% rally.* We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. ** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought* Markets already rallied 30-40%.
* Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%.
* Markets are very overbought!
SPY Daily
Markets completed wave I or A.
* 93.22 on 5/8/2009 is likely the top of the impulse wave which started on 3/6/2009.
* SPY rallied 25.73 points, 38.25% in 62 days. * During the major market rally of 30-40%, we haven't seen a meaningful correction, and now we will probably see a correction of 10%-15% going into the mid year CIT.* Markets are extremely unreal to hold up -- as we have seen.
DOW Daily
* DOW closed at 8331.32 above trendline supports.
* 8587.55 on 5/8/2009 is probably a top for this correction.* It has not violated various trendline supports.* Correction target: 7500 +/-
* Some of indicators which I show is a guideline as I use various methods for market analysis.re Indicators* As previously noted, you may want to test various indicator sets using plateforms with backtesting capabilities such as Metastock.
DOW 60min
* DOW +46.63, +0.56%* As anticipated, we saw a bounce to resolve oversold market condition.* Based on bad economic data, market rallied and closed with a moderate gain.
* DOW 60min does not show a violation of trend supports as shown on the chart.
* While markets could continue to push upside, the overbought condition and negative divergences for weeks does now show a good reason to be in the markets, especially it does not provide good opportunity as markets can suddenly sell off.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Market Analysis & Forecast 5/13/2009
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* QQQQ 33.05 after trading to QQQQ 32.96 below the 33 pivot which I noted yesterday.
* SPX 883.92 after trading to SPX 882.80 as anticipated key pivot for a correction confirmation.
* SPY 88.80 after trading to SPY 88.50.
* DOW 8284.89 after trading to 8262.43
* Nasdaq 1664.19 after trading to 1664.19 below 1669 pivot which I noted at 1:19 pm.
SP500: 900 ~ 880 /850
* The outlook will be adjusted when necessary.
* QQQQ 33.05 after trading to QQQQ 32.96 below the 33 pivot which I noted yesterday.
* SPX 883.92 after trading to SPX 882.80 as anticipated key pivot for a correction confirmation.
* SPY 88.80 after trading to SPY 88.50.
* DOW 8284.89 after trading to 8262.43
* Nasdaq 1664.19 after trading to 1664.19 below 1669 pivot which I noted at 1:19 pm.
SP500: 900 ~ 880 /850
DOW: 8400 ~ 8250 / 8000
Nasdaq: 1700 ~ 1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.50 ~ 33/31.50
* Intraday is becoming oversold - will reassess after a bounce which I am anticipating.
Markets are overbought as many stocks are already traded up over 100%, and chasing overbought markets will mostly result in significant loss, except day trading and VST trading.
SPX 15 min
Pivotal area: SPX 920-888
With the mild sell-off/profit taking, we now have moderate sell-momentum which can be seen on major market indexes. SPX traded to 882.90 then bounced up closing at 883.92. Intraday is now oversold, however, with the initial profit taking phase, we will likely see a continuation of down trend into Mid year CIT which previously noted.
* Intraday is becoming oversold - will reassess after a bounce which I am anticipating.
*** SPX 875 +/-
Key area which is a pivot for intraday bounce.
* SPX 908 +/-
Intraday resistance at where traders would likely sell.
We are seeing progressive correction going into the Mid-year CIT. While we still have DOW and SPX have not broken below the uptrend line supports, Qs and other major indexes are clearly trading below the recent uptrend line. Considering other technical reading factors as previously stated, our anticipation for a correction is now becoming realization. As noted on earlier commentaries, SPX 750 -800 target is the best case scenario correction targets. On the other hand, we could see other bearish scenarios which are 1) retesting the March 6, 2009 low, and 2) trading to SPX 555 and DOW 5555. At this point, I do not see the bearish case scenario during this year.
** This correction is just started, with a continuation of market correction, hence, it is better to take profit than thinking that we are going to right back up. Considering other technical factors, markets are still very overbought
* Markets already rallied 30-40%.
* Many stocks are already rallied 100-200%.
* Markets are very overbought!QQQQ 60min
Qs closed at 33.02 below the 200ma which I previously commented that closing below the uptrend moving average would give us a signal as a confirmation for a correction.
* We now see a converging 50/200 with which we may be a confirmation of a ST trend reversal, as weekly price actions are very overbought.
QQQQ Daily
We have seen a range expansion day today:
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* We may see a faster momentum to downside as markets as previously noted that faster markets rise, faster markets will fall.
* Key downside target:
QQQQ 30.50 +/- unfilled gap
* The outlook will be adjusted when necessary.
SPX 60min
SPX 60min bounced up at the 880 lower price channel support 882.80 +/-
* We may see a faster momentum to downside as markets as previously noted that faster markets rise, faster markets will fall.
* 908 - 900 bounce R
* Pivot 875 +/-
* The outlook will be adjusted when necessary.
SPX Daily
SPX 60min bounced up at the 880 lower price channel support 882.80 +/-
* We may see a faster momentum to downside as markets as previously noted that faster markets rise, faster markets will fall.
* 908 - 900 bounce R
* Pivot 875 +/-
* SPX 800 - 750 correction target
by mid-year CIT.
We may see more correction during this down turn cycle as I previously noted that the Fed intervention is usually retested. Downside targets will be adjusted as markets unfold.
* The outlook will be adjusted when necessary.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Market Analysis and Forecast
Market Analysis and Forecast for May 12, 2009
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Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 12
Profit taking
Markets are still trading above intraday supports which noted below after markets bounced off from the SPX 896.46 which is the lower support from the price channel - Nasdaq 1695.87 and QQQQ 33.52, respectively . DOW bounced up from 8366.65 support. The major markets reversed around 1 pm finishing the day with hammer formations at the intraday supports. Even though we have seen piercing the first support area today as noted LOD (low of day), closing above hammer formations above the pivots is not encouraging. SP500: 900 /880 /850
DOW: 8400/ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1700/1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.50/33/31.50
Markets are very overbought as many stocks are already traded up over 100%, and chasing overbought markets will mostly result in significant loss, except day trading and VST trading.
Pivot range
Pivotal area: SPX 920-888
With the intraday reversal today, markets are now relatively better positioned noting significant price supports even though markets are very overbought as we can see Goldman Abby comment on CNBC. With the comment, profit taking is better suited for the very overbought and extended markets.*** SPX 888
Key area which is pivotal juncture for a market correction.
SPX 875
Intraday bounce pivot
SPX 920 -930 is, of course, the red zone where some could be fooled into market hype. And, of course, markets could continue up. Higher markets goes up, further sell-off will be.
* QQQQ 33 +/- pivot
* QQQQ 31 +/- unfilled gap
QQQQ 60min
Since the Fed Bernanke has spoken on the 60min interview, markets have not fallen below the 200dma as shown on the QQQQ 60min chart, as example.
We now see a converging 50/200 with which we may be a confirmation of a ST trend reversal, as weekly price actions are very overbought.
As noted, Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.
QQQQ Daily - very overbought
We have a tight trading range for the last several days as shown on the QQQQ daily chart trading above the 200 dma. It again closed at 33.93 above it today.
* With the 60min actions: Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.
* With the 31 +/- unfilled gap, a market correction would be reasonable expectation.
Nasdaq Daily - very overbought
Nasdaq led the recent rally, and now it is showing a sign of leading the markets to downside even though price action does not reflect it yet. Internal momentum is showing an early sell signal after showing a few weeks of neg D breadth momentum.* We have not hear "Profit Taking" yet, hence, it is wise to take profit before many rush out the door.
* Markets made easy 100% rally on the Obama - the Fed hope speech, and now markets are very overbought.
* It's time to take profit. Don't chase overbought markets.
To view in full screen, click on the top-right corner.
Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 12
Profit taking
Markets are still trading above intraday supports which noted below after markets bounced off from the SPX 896.46 which is the lower support from the price channel - Nasdaq 1695.87 and QQQQ 33.52, respectively . DOW bounced up from 8366.65 support. The major markets reversed around 1 pm finishing the day with hammer formations at the intraday supports. Even though we have seen piercing the first support area today as noted LOD (low of day), closing above hammer formations above the pivots is not encouraging. SP500: 900 /880 /850
DOW: 8400/ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1700/1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.50/33/31.50
Markets are very overbought as many stocks are already traded up over 100%, and chasing overbought markets will mostly result in significant loss, except day trading and VST trading.
Pivot range
Pivotal area: SPX 920-888
With the intraday reversal today, markets are now relatively better positioned noting significant price supports even though markets are very overbought as we can see Goldman Abby comment on CNBC. With the comment, profit taking is better suited for the very overbought and extended markets.*** SPX 888
Key area which is pivotal juncture for a market correction.
SPX 875
Intraday bounce pivot
SPX 920 -930 is, of course, the red zone where some could be fooled into market hype. And, of course, markets could continue up. Higher markets goes up, further sell-off will be.
* QQQQ 33 +/- pivot
* QQQQ 31 +/- unfilled gap
QQQQ 60min
Since the Fed Bernanke has spoken on the 60min interview, markets have not fallen below the 200dma as shown on the QQQQ 60min chart, as example.
We now see a converging 50/200 with which we may be a confirmation of a ST trend reversal, as weekly price actions are very overbought.
As noted, Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.
QQQQ Daily - very overbought
We have a tight trading range for the last several days as shown on the QQQQ daily chart trading above the 200 dma. It again closed at 33.93 above it today.
* With the 60min actions: Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.
* With the 31 +/- unfilled gap, a market correction would be reasonable expectation.
Nasdaq Daily - very overbought
Nasdaq led the recent rally, and now it is showing a sign of leading the markets to downside even though price action does not reflect it yet. Internal momentum is showing an early sell signal after showing a few weeks of neg D breadth momentum.* We have not hear "Profit Taking" yet, hence, it is wise to take profit before many rush out the door.
* Markets made easy 100% rally on the Obama - the Fed hope speech, and now markets are very overbought.
* It's time to take profit. Don't chase overbought markets.
Market Psychology
Market Psychology
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FRACTAL ~We have a fractal traders' psychology pattern today.
FRACTAL ~We have a fractal traders' psychology pattern today.
May 12, 2009 Traders' Psychology
We have a fractal intraday Traders' psychology pattern.
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