Market Update

The Fed day 1Correction to SPX 880 going into the FOMC announcement?
* Markets closed below the pivots, SPX 893.04 LOD, which I noted during the QOE week as noted: a confirmation for a meaningful correction, e.g. breaking below the lows of the last week: SPX 900, DOW 8450, Nasdaq 1780, and Qs 35.40.

* SPX 880 +/- is the next pivot which will lead to the next target SPX 750.

* Major indexes SPX, DOW, TRAN, BKX, and XBD closed below primary supports and ST price actions are now showing downside momentum.

* Intraday 60min price actions are now becoming oversold, however, showing negative divergences to downside with extended corrective impulse wave.

* ST A-B-C correction scenario is currently wave B correction to 850-

* Correction to DOW 7500, SPX 750, QQQQ 30.50 into mid July is ideal, however, markets could hold up until Q2 report to show false hope financial reports.

* Realistic: Bearish case is intermediate corrective wave 5 to SPX 666/555.


DOW daily

* DOW 8339.01* Dow closed below uptrend support

* 8200 support showing H&S formation

* Daily momentum turned to downside with a trend break.

* 60min is becoming oversold however downside momentum could carry strong downside trend to 8200.

* Markets are very overbought on weekly.* Ideally, a correction to DOW 7500, SPX 750, QQQQ 30.50 into mid July is the best case scenario.


6/22/2009

* 10yr 3.72
* 10yr 3.50 pivot

* Rising interests rate

* Rising energy cost: Gas price ==> squeezing consumer

* Rising trillions of debt* Comparatively, interest rate is rising faster than housing recovery.

* HGX housing 77.09

Market Update 090618

Brief Market update 090618 ~

Markets bounced off from the noted vst supports: SPX 903, Qs 35.50, and DOW 8575 which I noted as the secondary supports.

As noted the HOD (high of the day) back-testing the trend break, markets traded in the support and resistance zone.

Thursday, June 18, 2009 1:16:59 PM
Backtest R

$COMPX 1816.60
$INDU 8590.52
$INX 921.93

Market trading volumes are extremely low as we can see that DOW has only 1.07 billion which is a half of normal trading volume.

With the massive debt selling and running up deficit, it is evident that the Gov and the Fed actions are mainly support the Gov expanses to operate instead of focusing on creating jobs. It is foolish to believe that we have a real economic recovery based on debt spending which is worse than the R.E. bubble/crash economy bankrupting millions of Americans.

With the RIMM earning report, futures are positive at the moment even though the guidance was low.

Intraday market actions are mixed as we can see on 60mins consolidated the day. Markets are very overbought, and holding up with artificial price manipulation which could, based on 5th wave scenario, crush down faster than it went up.

Following the correction period, based on Intermediate Wave 5 scenario, SPX 750/666 truncated or SPX 555 which is normal W5 price length.

For VST, the next lower targets are: Qs 34.50/33, SPX 880, and DOW 8200

Given the high risk, it is best to sell the long position as markets have rallied 40% before markets are in full blown sell-off mode. As noted before, being realistic is best dealing with highly risky market condition which we are in:

1) the Gov is continuing to sell debt to sustain the operating.
2) many unemployment check spending is running out the benefit which will cause more trouble with credit card payments resulting in more default.
3) 500 trillion derivative debt is still looming over markets.
4) housing markets are still going through down-sliding which is obvious when we do not have genuine economic growth.
5) not many have home equity to spend like in 2002-2007.
6) interest rate went up which will further stress many consumers.
7) higher gas price will strain many who are in tight budget.
8) markets can sell off very sharp as did before. Just because markets holding up now, does not mean it will be the same in the very overbought markets in narrow range/breadth compared to other market condition such as 2002. As noted before, this economy is not similar as that of 2002-2003.
9) in reality, there is no cyclical bull market with debt-spending economy. It is just a matter of time before the debt-clock runs out.
10) many are not as foolish as they were like in 2002-2003 about the Fed and the Gov activities as we have massive internet communication.

Market Summary:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches-061809.aspx

WEDNESDAY: Bernanke speaks; weekly mortgage applications; CPI; crude inventories; Earnings from FedEx

THURSDAY: Weekly jobless claims; leading indicators; Philly Fed index; Earnings from Research In Motion

FRIDAY: Quadruple OE friday




Markets are in early stage of a correction period.SPX 911 and DOW 8500

* Markets are showing an initial stage of a correction period after trading to the noted targets: SPX 950, DOW8800, NYA 6200, and NASDAQ 1880

* After showing extended period of negative divergences in price and breadth momentum on daily price actions, markets are now showing a correction period closing below a primary uptrend supports.

* Major indexes SPX, DOW, TRAN, BKX, and XBD closed below primary supports and ST price actions are now showing downside momentum.

* Intraday 60min price actions are now showing vst positive divergences. However, daily momentum is now down from very overbought condition.

* BEST CASE SCENARIO: correction to DOW 7500, SPX 750, QQQQ 30.50 into mid July is the best case scenario.

Markets traded to targets: SPX 950 & DOW 8800

Markets traded to SPX 950 target today which is the target zone area of 930-
950.

* With the Jun 1 rally, markets are now trading well above the resistances which
I noted, during the last couple of weeks, as: SPX 930 +/-, DOW 8600 +/-, Nasdaq
1770 +/-, NYA 6000 +/-; as we can see the closing prices showing on the left.

* I commented on SPX 1000 +/- target since a break above 850 on 3/26/2009.
Even though I anticipated a meaningful pull back, markets have now showing a
pull back as we have seen a continuation of the recent trend.


* Profit taking: However, for short term, markets are very overbought and
showing negative divergences on most of breadth chart analysis. Therefore, so
short term, we will likely see a pull back as we have seen news on a couple of
large investors have cashed in profits which could be an early signal of a series
of profit taking to follow as the recent bullish sentiment can easily be a
contrarian indicator.

* Mid year cycle at the end of June 2009: As previously noted, a major mid year
cycle term date is next pivotal market juncture. The recent very short term
cycle pivot was, so far, to upside after a consolidation period, we have seen

* Intermediate targets are:
DOW 11000 +/-, Nasdaq 2200, QQQQ 44, NYA 8000, $BKX 77


Weekly Bullish Percent :

* Contrary to daily breadth actions which are
showing negative divergences, weekly breadth
actions are showing bullish price actions.

* Markets are very overbought as shown on the
weekly breadth actions.

* Market sentiment turned very bullish as markets
continue to trade higher even though fundamentals
do not show improvement as we do not see no job
growth.

* Even though daily breadth action is showing negative
divergences, weekly breadth action is very bullish as the
initial buy program in March low has turned markets very
bullish with trending markets during the last 3 months.

The Effective Trading System since 3/6/2009

You would wonder what system has worked best since the March 6 low.

The best system since the March low is "Trend-following" system.

The Effective Trading System since 3/6/2009


The only effective system working since the March low is Trend-Following System as I previously noted that the trend has not violated.

SPY Daily
 
* 92.53

* My trend-following indicator is on trending market mode as shown on the chart.

* Trend-following markets which we have seen since the 3/6/2009. As I have noted that we do not have a violation of the trend to confirm a meaningful pull back.
Obviously, markets were fading many other technical readings for those who were looking for a pull back. The bottomline is that markets were pushing higher in light volumes using shorters as fueling the markets regardless of what real economic prospect is.
 
* Of course, financial media is always hype one way or the other to sway market sentiment - now, projecting bullish scenario to lure in small investors.
 
* A breakout above 930-950, as previously note is targeting SPX 1000 +/-.

Market Analysis & Forecast

May 19, 2009 Market Analysis and Forecast

Bearish Churning Markets at Pivots
FOMC min on Wed, 5/20/2009

Markets consolidated the 3% gains which we have seen yesterday. We had very light trading volumes again as we have seen during the last several trading days.

* Markets are trading at pivotal resistances as VIX/VXN are manipulated to break to downside, however, as noted, small investors and sideline money participation often signals tops and bottoms. Evidently, markets are luring in sideline money. However, we are seeing very low trading volumes -- already summer trading session.
* Traders are gone to beach for Memorial Holiday.

* With the low VIX/VXN hype and holding up markets, we are continuing to see market manipulation as we already have seen 30-40% rally along with over 100% rallied stocks.
* The market condition is extremely misrepresenting real economic condition just same as what we have seen during the last decade.
* For short term trading, don't be fooled into buying markets as our economy is not nearly similar as that of 2002 or 2003 - a note on the GDP misrepresentation as example.

DOW daily
* DOW 8474.85
* DOW rallied back near down trend resistance and pulled back closing with a falling hammer formation.
* Even though the formation is a bearish formation signaling a likely reversal; however, based on the recent market actions and sentiment, it is better to be cautious and look for a confirmation for a break from a lower price channel shown on the DOW daily chart.
*At this point, being in cash is safer as markets already rallied 30% from the low. If you have not exited markets, it was worth to stay in the markets. Evidently, there are still saideline money.
* Markets are continuing to show negative divergences.

SPX 60min EW speculation (ST wave B or IT wave 5)

* Close at 908.13 as markets are trading near at IT pivotal resistances.

* Case 1: Markets completed ST wave A and ST wave B (SPX 800 +/-) is in progress. As shown on the SPX 60min chart.

* Case 2: Markets have completed IT wave 4 and are in progress of IT wave 5.

* Reasons for markets are still holding up: many traders are looking at the same traditional technical analysis, therefore, markets are fading the obviously informed technical readings as we have seen trend-ride price actions.

* SPX 930.17 and SPY 93.22 on 5/8/2009 is likely the top of the impulse wave which started on 3/6/2009 at SPX 666.79.
* SPY rallied 25.73 points, 38.25% in 62 days.

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Weekly Financial Markets

Markets are trading at pivotal resistances with very overbought condition after six weeks rally as shown on the daily charts: Qs 33.50 upper RST TL, SPX 875 double top formation, DOW 8190 downtrend TL, and Nasdaq 1682 TL. Also, markets are in rising wedge/ED formations which are bearish formations. Markets are overbought on all timeframe showing negative divergences for weeks. After rallying for six weeks with a gain of 30%+ H/L from SPX 666, markets will likely pull back at this point even though market sentiment is extremely bullish; however, since markets are trading with the recent uptrend, until markets are technically showing a pull back, it is better to remain cautious.

Major Market pivots:

Qs	31.50
SPX	850.00
DOW	8,200.00
Nasdaq	1,660.00

The wave of the Red Sea is coming down.

Monday, April 06, 2009 10:28:29 AM

Finally, we are getting a pull back.

Sell, sell, sell -- the wave of the Red Sea is coming down.


Monday, April 06, 2009 8:59:52 AM
Markets are pulling back after reaching the SPX 850 target. Since the March 6, 2009 bottom at SPX 666.79, markets were absolutely skyrocketing relentlessly without any decent pull back which was showing strong trend following up price momentum with negative divergences.

Many bears were running tails tucked in and are slaughtered ruthlessly, and with the bull rocket bomb reined on bears lately, we don't have many bears left.

Markets retrieved from the resistances.
$COMPX 1625 +/-
$INDU 8075 +/-
$INX 850 +/-
Qs megaphone formation is completed at 32.50 +/-.

SPX 850

SPX 834.38 ~ Reached target 850+/- R and with the Bernanke, G20, FASB, and OB Madoff printing scheme, markets will pump and dump at will drive the world financial markets like their little cash registers. With the big Bernanke/G20 money Madoff scheme, markets will blow off up or down. Markets are snoozing with low VIX. Big Madoff show in March -- will it continue to April?

I recommend to take profit and sell. A pull back is due.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uehqZlkUb3g

Markets retrieved from the resistances.
$COMPX 1625 +/-
$INDU 8075 +/-
$INX 850 +/-

Major Market 2008 performance

Market manipulation

Qs 50.10, SPX 1388 , and DOW 12496 ~~ > The Bush/greed national disaster makers manipulate markets to HOD R which is the Sym Triangle DTL for Qs 50.10, SPX 1388 R, and DOW 12496. Those are the TL resistances which can be seen as simple TL r.

The greed evil has much motivation to hype markets continuing our national financial disaster while they make themselves pig rich robbing entire nation using deceit. God save US from the evil power.

Market price hype in light volume

Markets bounced off from ST supports today with oversold intradays with positive divergences. Also, it is the End-of-month market manipulation to get market prices high as possible to show good portfolio level. However, we had extremely negative economic news today with multi-decaded low consumer sentiment and Shiller's home price index.

Because markets are continuing to hype markets, we are facing multi-decades of bubbles and a mountain of US Debt. Through bubbles and crashes, only a privy, colluded financial group is getting super-rich.

Markets traded in very light volumes showing higher risk even though price actions are marked up with EOM manipulation with big cap stocks.




Markets bounced off from supports in light volumes today with hype:
Investors who spent the past nine months avoiding the skidding US stock market and economy by snapping up multinational companies are now coming back home. Hyping about oil pulling back 2.6% today.

Oil price was low in 2002 and with ARM housing manipulation, economy bounced up, i.e. US consumers emptied their wallets with home equity spending.

Now we have many US consumer skeleton spending power, but it is obvious that markets are hyping up for the election year with deceiving bull market.

Qs, SPX, DOW, Nasdaq met 1st Targets

With FOMC meeting during next week, major markets traded to targets area, e.g. Qs 48 +/-. Qs near daily DTL after tagging 47.79 with 48 +/-R, DOW 12891.86 with 13000 R, Nasdaq 2422.93 with daily DTL at 2450 +/-.

Since the double bottom, as noted on 3/17 and 3/18, after testing LT supports, as shown on the weekly charts markets traded to weekly resistances after breaking out of the falling wedges noted since 3/19/08. Falling wedge formation is a bullish pattern. Since the 3/17/08 double bottom at SPX 1256, DOW 11756, Nas 2155, and Qs 41, markets have rallied 11%, 10%, 14%, and 17% respectively from the lows. I noted the double bottom in Jan-Mar 2008 likely to be the low for 2008 with the target of SPX 1650 as commented on 1/25/08.

I expect a pull back after the Fed announcement from the current resistances as we are at ST cycle pivot going into next cycle pivot in Jun. I am anticipating SPX 1330 +/-, Wave 2, will hold closing gaps which we have and that will set up Jun rally going into EOY. This is the "Wave 4" scenario from the Oct 2007 top. During Dec 2007, I explained technical and fundamental readings going into Jan-Mar 2008 double bottom as a meaningful correction from the Oct 2007 top.

While markets have not broken out of the IT down TL above 1400 +/-, I believe that markets will break above it going into EOY to SPX 1600 +/-.