Showing posts with label SPY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SPY. Show all posts

Thursday, December 10, 2009

SPY weekly

12.10.2009

The rally from July 2009 is showing gradual negative divergences in price and in breadth, e.g. macd on the SPY weekly chart.








  • Relief Plan Yields Only 10,000 Permanent Modifications ~ Only about 10,000 homeowners have received permanent loan modifications under the Obama administration's mortgage relief plan, evidence of continuing woes for the government's effort to stem the foreclosure crisis.

    That means fewer than 2 percent of the 650,000 homeowners enrolled in the program as of October had their mortgage payments permanently lowered to more affordable levels. The results spotlight the limited success lenders are having in getting borrowers through the trial period, according to an oversight panel report released Wednesday.
~~~
Considering Americans are just about emptied their pockets,
the trillion size sharks can only pick each other or China/Asia if they can.
12.09.2009
$COMPX 2183.73 10.74 0.49% 1,902,358
$INDU 10337.05 51.08 0.50% 1,132,016
$INX 1095.94 4.00 0.37%



Saturday, May 30, 2009

The Effective Trading System since 3/6/2009

You would wonder what system has worked best since the March 6 low.

The best system since the March low is "Trend-following" system.

The Effective Trading System since 3/6/2009


The only effective system working since the March low is Trend-Following System as I previously noted that the trend has not violated.

SPY Daily
 
* 92.53

* My trend-following indicator is on trending market mode as shown on the chart.

* Trend-following markets which we have seen since the 3/6/2009. As I have noted that we do not have a violation of the trend to confirm a meaningful pull back.
Obviously, markets were fading many other technical readings for those who were looking for a pull back. The bottomline is that markets were pushing higher in light volumes using shorters as fueling the markets regardless of what real economic prospect is.
 
* Of course, financial media is always hype one way or the other to sway market sentiment - now, projecting bullish scenario to lure in small investors.
 
* A breakout above 930-950, as previously note is targeting SPX 1000 +/-.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Market Analysis and Forecast

Market Analysis and Forecast for May 12, 2009
To view in full screen, click on the top-right corner.
Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 12 Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 12 GS Market Analysis and Forecast 2009 May 12

Profit taking
Markets are still trading above intraday supports which noted below after markets bounced off from the SPX 896.46 which is the lower support from the price channel - Nasdaq 1695.87 and QQQQ 33.52, respectively . DOW bounced up from 8366.65 support. The major markets reversed around 1 pm finishing the day with hammer formations at the intraday supports. Even though we have seen piercing the first support area today as noted LOD (low of day), closing above hammer formations above the pivots is not encouraging. SP500: 900 /880 /850
DOW: 8400/ 8250 / 8000Nasdaq: 1700/1660/1620
QQQQ: 33.50/33/31.50
Markets are very overbought as many stocks are already traded up over 100%, and chasing overbought markets will mostly result in significant loss, except day trading and VST trading.



Pivot range

Pivotal area: SPX 920-888

With the intraday reversal today, markets are now relatively better positioned noting significant price supports even though markets are very overbought as we can see Goldman Abby comment on CNBC. With the comment, profit taking is better suited for the very overbought and extended markets.*** SPX 888
Key area which is pivotal juncture for a market correction.


SPX 875
Intraday bounce pivot


SPX 920 -930 is, of course, the red zone where some could be fooled into market hype. And, of course, markets could continue up. Higher markets goes up, further sell-off will be.


* QQQQ 33 +/- pivot
* QQQQ 31 +/- unfilled gap


QQQQ 60min
Since the Fed Bernanke has spoken on the 60min interview, markets have not fallen below the 200dma as shown on the QQQQ 60min chart, as example.

We now see a converging 50/200 with which we may be a confirmation of a ST trend reversal, as weekly price actions are very overbought.
As noted, Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.



QQQQ Daily - very overbought
We have a tight trading range for the last several days as shown on the QQQQ daily chart trading above the 200 dma. It again closed at 33.93 above it today.
* With the 60min actions: Qs bounced up from 33.50 and closing below 200 ma on 60min gives us a confirmation.
* With the 31 +/- unfilled gap, a market correction would be reasonable expectation.

Nasdaq Daily - very overbought

Nasdaq led the recent rally, and now it is showing a sign of leading the markets to downside even though price action does not reflect it yet. Internal momentum is showing an early sell signal after showing a few weeks of neg D breadth momentum.* We have not hear "Profit Taking" yet, hence, it is wise to take profit before many rush out the door.
* Markets made easy 100% rally on the Obama - the Fed hope speech, and now markets are very overbought.

* It's time to take profit. Don't chase overbought markets.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Premarket - ES/NQ/SPY

Premarkets ~ Premarket is showing a sign of pulling back after trading to ES 930 target.

* Financial news is mixed, but it is helping a pull back after extremely bullish news media sentiment during the last several weeks.

** ES is showing stronger performance than NQ during the last week as NQ/Nasdaq/QQQQ led the recent rally since the March low.

* Closing below ES 1366 is a good sign for obtaining a much waited correction.

* SPY traded to 91.53 in premarket and bounced up. Considering how strong the recent rally, relatively, the premarket price actions didn't make a dint to show a confirmation for a pull back even though I have an early sell-signal.

PDF 2 pages Charts and Commentaries: Click at the top right corner to view in full screen.
Market Analysis & Forecast 5/11/2009 Premarket Market Analysis & Forecast 5/11/2009 Premarket GS Market Analysis & Forecast 5/11/2009 Premarket

Thursday, April 30, 2009

No Falling Knife yet



ST: Bearish and IT: Neutral

Markets already rallied 30-40% from the bottom. I will not take fresh long position at here. It is insane to bite the long bait after 30-40% major markets have pumped up based on massive debt spending.

Without a meaningful correction, it is crazy to take long term investment at here even though we have seen market hypers after markets have pumped up 30-40%. Even though markets are still trading in the price channels, markets could quickly sell off based on some manipulated news. Even with sudden "Taking Profit" excuse. Markets are insane and very manipulative, hence, it could slash quickly when no more sideline cash is coming in.

Of course, technically, SPX 900/1000 is very doable with crazy printing machine which everyone HATES that the Gov/Bernanke/Geithner are doing it.

Of course, traders do day trade in VST.






Monday, April 27, 2009

Major Markets


As alerted at 4/27/2009 3:13:26 PM, markets formed double top, after fading the morning GAP making the HOD at SPX 868.83, DOW 8122.56, and Nasdaq 1700.53, then retested the top and swing to near the LOD.

No sell in May and go away?
Also, noted the series of diamond formations for the last 5-6 weeks in consolidation mode in a price channel after initial thrust from the SPX 666 low. Evidently, much waited lower market targets will not be see anytime soon at this rate

Even though markets are continuing to show negative divergences, markets are still trading in the recent up trend.

Shall we see a confirmation of a meaning market correction? In this volatile markets, VST traders should be careful thinking that markets will break to the downside as markets are compressing to make a next move. Anticipating a pull back at this point is an easy expectation, but markets can surprise many, therefore, need to be cautious.

Market Formations:

Most of traders are looking at the same formation: Inverse H&S
As shown on the chart as it is quite obvious formation at this point.
As noted, markets were retracing only Fib 23% since the March rally
Started, and we are still seeing the similar market actions as we have
Seen during the last several weeks. The obvious expectation at this point is
inverse H&S, while H&S formation is quite desirable and hoping for.
Waiting for a directional confirmation is quite obvious at this point.
We can only hope for, PLEASE SELL and GO AWAY for summer.





Major Markets in diamond/triangle formations
SPX is showing a diamond formation as shown below.
Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 845-870 +/-.


SPX is showing a diamond formation as shown below.
Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 85 - 87 +/-.



DOW is showing a diamond formation as shown below.
Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 7800 - 8100 +/-.

Nasdaq rallied along price channel for several weeks

1650 - 1750 +/-. pivots

$BKX trading in symmetrical triangle/diamond formations
30-36 +/- pivots



Friday, April 24, 2009

Market Calls

FAS 7 bounce



DOW 7800 pivot




AAPL 127 R





SPY Pivot 85 r


SPY 87.85 r backtest




SPY backtest at 85


FAZ backtest at 10


Saturday, March 28, 2009

The Caveat final count down

The Caveat: Even though markets rallied based on the Bernanke, Obama, and Geithner speeches, we still have potential bad news such as more bad news from the commercial R.E. fall-out and personal credit fall-out.

e.g. Commercial RE loan default and Moody downgrade jumbo loans http://www.cnbc.com/id/29774863/

Markets bottomed at SPX 666.79 for 2009 and NO SPX 555?

Did the Bernanke 60 min interview effectively eliminated bearish sentiment for the year?

The Obama and Geithner speeches also effectively eliminated the bear for the year?

Commercial R.E. loan defaults are skyrocketing.

AP reported "Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, offices, retail and industrial buildings have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to soar through the end of 2010 as companies lay off workers, downsize or shut their doors."
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/final-count-down-3-4-5.html

Commercial real estate loan defaults skyrocket

WASHINGTON: With loan defaults rising, analysts say the struggling commercial real estate industry is poised to fall into the worst crisis since the last great property bust of the early 1990s.


VIX and VXN are trading below 200 dma suggesting that markets will continue the recent uptrend with the subdued volatility. However, the volatility closed above the contracting triangle trendline support going into the Q1 earning reports in April. Also, $CPC/CPCI/CPCE reading are extremely low below 2 year + low. With the commercial RE defaults and more economic and earning bad news, Markets have the excuse to sell-off trading down to SPX 555 target as a final wash off going into mid year.

The final count down 3-4-5 to SPX 555 during the April Q1 earning reports?


Alternative EW Market Price Actions: Final Count Down 3-4-5

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZkllM8znx4

If markets trade to SPX 555 +/- by mid year, I expect the rally off from the low will be stronger than the rally which we recently have seen.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36634247



14775











14774

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Dissecting S&P 500 Dividends

Dissecting S&P 500 Dividends
Posted By: Giovanny Moreano, Ariel Nelson

| 05 Feb 2009 | 09:58 AM ET

As market participants anticipate possible stagnant growth in the coming quarters, investors might be more apt to get back to "old fashioned" investing with higher-yielding stocks.

Amid the current market environment, should investors feel safe reaching for the carrot? "Dividends are an important source of income for many investors, accounting for about half of an investor's total return historically," said Tim O'Brien, Manager of the Evergreen Global Dividend Opportunity Fund. According to Mr. O’Brien, investors looking for dividend-yielding stocks should limit their exposure to financial companies, and look for higher-yielding preferred shares in addition to common stocks. Mr. O’Brien suggests considering companies in the utilities sector, since some of these companies provide relatively stable business models reflecting their longevity. "A company that is in a position to raise its dividend, it's obviously a company that's doing well."

As market participants anticipate possible stagnant growth in the coming quarters, investors might be more apt to get back to "old fashioned" investing with higher-yielding stocks.

Amid the current market environment, should investors feel safe reaching for the carrot? "Dividends are an important source of income for many investors, accounting for about half of an investor's total return historically," said Tim O'Brien, Manager of the Evergreen Global Dividend Opportunity Fund. According to Mr. O’Brien, investors looking for dividend-yielding stocks should limit their exposure to financial companies, and look for higher-yielding preferred shares in addition to common stocks. Mr. O’Brien suggests considering companies in the utilities sector, since some of these companies provide relatively stable business models reflecting their longevity. "A company that is in a position to raise its dividend, it's obviously a company that's doing well."

According to Don Taylor, Manager of the Franklin Rising Dividends Fund, investors should also consider companies that continuously increase their dividends. Some of the sectors that Mr. Taylor favors include consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and diversified industrials. He suggests looking at companies with fairly stable business models and recurring revenue. "The sell-off that we have seen in many of these companies in the past year, makes it an attractive opportunity" Mr. Taylor added.

A stock screen of the S&P 500 Index reveals that about 26% of its components have a dividend yield between 3 to 6 percent. The average dividend yield for these companies stands at 4.15%, while the median is at 3.16%. The following histogram portrays the distribution of all the companies in the S&P 500, according to their corresponding dividend yields. You will see that the chart skews to the left, with fewer companies driving up the overall average.


According to Don Taylor, Manager of the Franklin Rising Dividends Fund, investors should also consider companies that continuously increase their dividends. Some of the sectors that Mr. Taylor favors include consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and diversified industrials. He suggests looking at companies with fairly stable business models and recurring revenue. "The sell-off that we have seen in many of these companies in the past year, makes it an attractive opportunity" Mr. Taylor added.
# See Highest Yielding Stocks on the Dow

A stock screen of the S&P 500 Index reveals that about 26% of its components have a dividend yield between 3 to 6 percent. The average dividend yield for these companies stands at 4.15%, while the median is at 3.16%. The following histogram portrays the distribution of all the companies in the S&P 500, according to their corresponding dividend yields. You will see that the chart skews to the left, with fewer companies driving up the overall average.

The tables on the next few pages depict some of the companies in the S&P 500 with dividend yields north of 5%. The yields on these companies are based on historical dividend payments, as per Thomson Reuters data. The dividend yields of these companies could change, as has been the case with many financial companies in the past few months including Citigroup and Bank of America. As you will see, financials represent a more dominant share of the highest yielding stocks. As always, keep in mind that the stock screen should help you generate ideas, but there is more homework to be done, especially with stocks paying dividend yields above 7%.

Stocks yielding over 10%: ~40% of them are Financials

Stocks yielding 8-10%: ~30% of them are Financials

Stocks yielding 6-8%: ~26% of them are Financials

Stocks yielding 5-6%: ~18% of them are Financials




bythenumbers.cnbc.com
© 2009 CNBC.com

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29021063/

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Qs perfect symmetrical formation & SPY/DIA




Qs perfect triangle formation with a support at the bottom retesting the yesterday low, 50.13 with a higher low at 50.15.

60m macd is about to turn positive.


SPY and DIA showing higher low formation. The SPY and DIA charts are showing "Option Expiration Percent Movement" Supports and Resistances based on the OE close price. The explanation on OEPM is on my website.