Final Count Down in a new downtrend channel which we may see soon

Final Count Down in a new downtrend channel which we may see soon ~ Markets reversed at note SPX 810 and Qs 31, and sold off going into close. Futures are showing volatility ES/NQ off 1.5% +/-. So far market actions are consistent to the final count down 3-4-5 going into mid year. With volatility, we may see VIX/VXN breakout tomorrow.

Final Count Down 3-4-5?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZkllM8znx4

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36703320

$COMPX 1554.47
$INDU 7725.36
$INX 810.48

DIA 77.23
IWM 43.31
QID 48.70
QLD 28.05
QQQQ 30.95
SMH 19.09
SPY 81.08





http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36678314

VIX/VXN Breakout attempt
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33366725


Market actions going into close is encouraging: Inverted Hammers and doji

Markets are entering to the Q1 earning reports in April. After markets rallying 20%, looking for more to upside without a decent pull back is illogical. With the market volatility, SPX 100 point delta is becoming a minor event nowadays. The SPX 100 point difference between 555 and 666 is about 100 point difference which is about 20%. With the volatility, the 20% move in two weeks is not a surprise as we have seen during March.

Markets are showing negative divergences after rallying 20% off from the SPX 666 low on 3/8/2009. The initial thrust from the low has shown strong momentum; however, the last two week rally was showing weakening momentum and price/breadth was overbought. We had very light trading volumes today before the sharp sell off going into close which is another sign of ST top formation closing the day with reversal formations of Inverted hammers and doji.

Modified M2M ~ Black Swan: Don't Change 'Mark To Market' Rules

With the volatility which we are seeing lately, it is premature to manipulate markets with changing policies and procedures. As is, markets are volatile and fragile. Weighted average price is one option.

Altering mark-to-market accounting rules would bring more opacity to the financial system, said Nassim Taleb, “The Black Swan” author.

“It’s exactly like how a thermometer makes a patient look more sick,” he said in a CNBC interview. “Eliminating the mark-to-market is exactly like putting your head in the sand.”

Rather than taxpayers propping up large banks, Taleb said, the hedge fund model should be followed.

“Some go bust, some do okay, some have problems,” he said. “We don’t care. It’s their problem. It’s not society’s problem.”

The EOQ and Light Volumes

Tuesday, March 31, 2009 3:19:54 PM

Markets are hyperventilating in very light volumes. Not a good sign for the coming volatility during the earning reports. SPX 810 intraday resistance.

$COMPX 1554.47
$INDU 7725.36
$INX 810.48

DIA 77.23
IWM 43.31
QID 48.70
QLD 28.05
QQQQ 30.95
SMH 19.09
SPY 81.08

14811

‘Conflicker’ virus may hit computers on April Fools’ Day

Computer security firms are sounding the alarm about a new “Conflicker” virus that makes network computers their “slaves.”

Some think the software worm could try to expand its potential reach tomorrow, April Fools’ Day, no joke.

“It’s definitely serious,” Kevin Haley, director of security response at Symantec, said of the virus thought to be embedded in millions of network computers across the globe.

1929

Futures:

@ES 790.50 6.25 0.80%
@NQ 1233.50 10.75 0.88%

Potential New DOWN Channel and VIX breakout attempt

New DOWN Channel? Markets bounced off from the intraday supports, SPX 780, DOW 7450, Nasdaq 1485, and Qs 29.60 with VIX/VXN closing below the triangle breakout after trading above the upper trend line resistance. However, VIX 30min shows a breakout.

VIX/VXN Breakout attempt
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33366725

With the market actions today, the 60min price actions are now showing oversold condition from which the markets bounced off, SPX 780. We have seen strong market price actions with an initial VIX/VXN breakout actions even though the volatility closed inside of the triangle formations. While market actions remain volatile reacting to the Economic news and earning news, so far, market actions are suggesting a potential -continuation of the downside momentum of the final downside momentum to SPX 555 +/-.

Intraday Supports: LOD
$COMPX 1484.98, DOW 7437.59, $INX 779.81
DIA 74.37
IWM 40.78
QID 48.64
QLD 25.71
QQQQ 29.62
SMH 18.37
SPY 77.96

The SPX 60min chart below suggests a potential fractal formation of the 2/9/2009 price actions which could be the wave 1 of wave 5 of Cycle A which could be also a long term consolidation triangle. SPX 750 is a good support area for the cyclical bullish case; however, markets trading to lower to retest the low at 666 is preferred.

Markets have formed a new down channel or resume the recent VST uptrend?

Considering all factors, it is likely that a retest of the low at least.

Daily market momentum is now turning down, however, we do not have a reversal confirmation for a ST top. 60min momentum is now turning up with negative divergences.



Fractal formation?



VIX/VXN Breakout attempt

Markets are showing negative divergences

While markets have bounced off intraday supports from the the low S so far, the price actions are showing negative divergences.

$COMPX 1484.98
$INDU 7475.67
$INX 784.51

DIA 74.73
IWM 40.78
QID 48.64
QLD 25.71
QQQQ 29.62
SMH 18.37
SPY 78.41

Bear Market Rallies

Bear Market Rallies during 1938 - 1941: 20% - 55%



Bear Market Rallies during 1930 - 1932: 15% - 40%



Bear Market Rallies during 1967 - 1981: 30% - 75%



Bear Market Rallies during 2001 - 2002: 15% - 30%



http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/caveat-even-though-markets-rallied.html

The Caveat final count down

The Caveat: Even though markets rallied based on the Bernanke, Obama, and Geithner speeches, we still have potential bad news such as more bad news from the commercial R.E. fall-out and personal credit fall-out.

e.g. Commercial RE loan default and Moody downgrade jumbo loans http://www.cnbc.com/id/29774863/

Markets bottomed at SPX 666.79 for 2009 and NO SPX 555?

Did the Bernanke 60 min interview effectively eliminated bearish sentiment for the year?

The Obama and Geithner speeches also effectively eliminated the bear for the year?

Commercial R.E. loan defaults are skyrocketing.

AP reported "Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, offices, retail and industrial buildings have risen sharply in recent months and are likely to soar through the end of 2010 as companies lay off workers, downsize or shut their doors."
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/final-count-down-3-4-5.html

Commercial real estate loan defaults skyrocket

WASHINGTON: With loan defaults rising, analysts say the struggling commercial real estate industry is poised to fall into the worst crisis since the last great property bust of the early 1990s.

VIX and VXN are trading below 200 dma suggesting that markets will continue the recent uptrend with the subdued volatility. However, the volatility closed above the contracting triangle trendline support going into the Q1 earning reports in April. Also, $CPC/CPCI/CPCE reading are extremely low below 2 year + low. With the commercial RE defaults and more economic and earning bad news, Markets have the excuse to sell-off trading down to SPX 555 target as a final wash off going into mid year.

The final count down 3-4-5 to SPX 555 during the April Q1 earning reports?


Alternative EW Market Price Actions: Final Count Down 3-4-5

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZkllM8znx4

If markets trade to SPX 555 +/- by mid year, I expect the rally off from the low will be stronger than the rally which we recently have seen.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36634247



14775











14774

Best 15-day rally in 70 years

Best Rally: Markets rallied from SPX 666.79 on 3/6/2009 to SPX 832.98 on 3/24/2009. H/L 166.19 points, 25%

The market rally of 25% H/L and 20% gain is its best 15-day rally in 70 years.



Economic data



CONSOLIDATION: After the market rally of 25% H/L and 20% gain is its best 15-day rally in 70 years, markets will consolidate retracing 30%-50% for the bullish case to SPX 755 +/-, DOW 7225 +/-, Nasdaq 1425 +/-, and Qs 28.60 +/-. However, we have the EOQ mark-up and G20 meeting during the next week going into the Q1 earning report in April; hence, volatility will continue as VIX and CPC volatility reading is very low signaling higher volatility during the earning reports. For those who missed the rally from 3/6/2009, waiting for a pull back is better than chasing the markets at this time. Of course, the EOQ positioning is the game which fund managers play.
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/best-15-day-rally-in-70-years.html

Market Pivots
Qs 32 +/-
SPX 830 +/-
DOW 8000 +/-
Nasdaq 1600 +/-

Breaking above SPX 830 +/-, markets will trade to SPX 1000 +/-.


14772

Bank CEOs Meet With Obama: 'We're All In This Together'

re Bank CEOs Meet With Obama: 'We're All In This Together'

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36603013
So, you can hire 5 millions and keep jobs in homeland.


Original:
I'm Chiquita Banana, and I've come to say
Bananas have to ripen in a certain way.
And when they are flecked with brown
and have a golden hue,
Bananas taste the best, and are the best for you.
You can put them in a salad. You can put
them in a pie - aye.
Anyway you want to eat them it's
impossible to beat them.
But bananas like the climate of the very,
very tropical equator.
So you should never put bananas in the refrigerator.




Commercial Property Faces Crisis
Delinquency Rate at 1.8%, Near Peak of Last Recession; Parallels to S&L Debacle

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/final-count-down-3-4-5.html

Hedge Funds and the Global Economic Meltdown

Hedge Funds and the Global Economic Meltdown from Judd Bagley on Vimeo.

Final Count Down 3-4-5?

Profit taking acceleration before big falls?

2.6 million Americans were handed a pink slip last year and the Conference Board, a nonprofit business research group, estimates another 2 million people will lose their jobs by mid-2009.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29880787


City Center, an $8 billion Las Vegas project owned by MGM Mirage and Dubai World, has hired counsel to advise on a possible bankruptcy filing, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29911001/


Commercial Property Faces Crisis
Delinquency Rate at 1.8%, Near Peak of Last Recession; Parallels to S&L Debacle

The delinquency rate on about $700 billion in securitized loans backed by office buildings, hotels, stores and other investment property has more than doubled since September to 1.8% this month, according to data provided to The Wall Street Journal by Deutsche Bank AG. While that's low compared with the home-mortgage delinquency rate, it's just short of the highest rate during the last downturn early this decade.





Boston's John Hancock Tower is to be auctioned after lenders moved to foreclose on owner Broadway Partners.

Markets trading near SPX 850 target

Markets are now trading near at SPX 850 target. Breaking above it, the next target is SPX 1000 +/-.

$COMPX 1587.00
$INDU 7931.33
$INX 832.98


Markets have not violated the bearish scenario, yet. However, markets are showing bullish sentiment which is showing less likely the bearish scenario.

___________________________________________________

Wednesday, March 11, 2009 11:11:42 AM

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36204303

Markets are trading at pivotal resistances: Intraday HOD so far SPX 731.92, SPY 73.75, Qs 27.99 -- consolidating near at R1 which was the case yesterday. A follow-through day with the rally yesterday would provide some positive sentiment as markets are oversold and now daily/weekly indicators are showing a sign of price improvement with internal positive divergences -- targets to RST formation wave upside, Qs 34 +/- and SPX 850 +/- -- with the impulse wave, so far, in progress.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36114307

Posted by: *~1Best~* Date: Friday, March 06, 2009 5:10:03 PM

MARKET BOTTOM: SPX 683.38 0.83 0.12%

SPX 666.79

Still possible: VIX breakout to upside final count down, 3-4-5?

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33366725

Markets have not violated the bearish scenario, yet, markets are showing bullish sentiment which is showing less likely the bearish scenario.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36531105

Nuking Markets while Jobs are imploding

Many fled markets during the 3 weeks into 3/6/2009 as we can see on the CMF with huge sell-off pushing down markets.
Then nuking markets with the Bernanke speech on 60min to slaughter again.

Since many Americans are already lost savings and in debt, what is left is market volatility to lure in sideline cash to nuke.

IMPLODING JOBS

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/bushville-massacre-contd.html

Nuke markets to resistances: Just more dead bodies and financial torture sooner or later with the nuking scams after scams.

$COMPX 1587.00 1587.00 58.05 3.80% 2,589,609
$INDU 7931.33 7924.56 174.75 2.25% 1,684,597
$INX 832.98 832.86 18.98 2.33%

Illuminati Nuke Money Power

Moving Markets at snap

Illuminati Nuke money power

Bushville Massacre cont'd:

Bushville Massacre cont'd: IBM shifting jobs abroad. Sources say IBM (IBM) plans to lay off around 5,000 U.S. employees and transfer many of the jobs to India. The cuts will target the company's global business-services unit, and are part of IBM's efforts to steadily build up its foreign workforce. Foreign workers accounted for 71% of IBM's employees at the start of the year, up from 65% in 2006.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123799610031239341.html


Bushville
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/bubblecrash.html

Market Sell-off setup

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36531105

	Date: Thursday, March 26, 2009 9:07:54 AM

Markets are setting up for a disaster sell-off after the 20% (Major Markets) and 200%(FAS 3x) rallies.

Piling on to this market at this time is piling on to nuclear market bombs.

Pivotal Resistances:
SPX 830 +/-
DOW 7780 +/-
Nasdaq 1555 +/-
Q 31 +/-

Nuke money manipulation

"Only need a few months to go from 4.5% to 93%" Just like market behavior.

Nuke money manipulation while many get slaughtered.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36567062

Wait & See whether Iran will drop bombs on Israel and USA.

This could be political games for money.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36549744

"They have 4000 centrifuges in a facility monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). They have the knowledge to enrich uranium to 93%, making it weapon grade. The rate they are going, they will only need a few months to go from 4.5% to 93%."

Bernanke 60min speech -- 20% market bubble up

Bernanke 1/3: Bernanke had freedom to act, didn't need permission from Congress or president!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=894X9_CU-QQ

Bernanke 2/3: Federal Reserve is the life blood of the banking system!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecTgxT3DK3Y

Bernanke 3/3: We had a regulatory system that was like a sandcastle on the beac!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXerJg03oV0

Bubble/Crash volatility

Bubble/crash blackmails & drugs: http://www.cnbc.com/
# AIG Europe Execs: Returning Bonuses Is Blackmail
AIG executives in Europe are adamant they should not have to return their controversial bonuses and some feel that pressure on them to do so may amount to blackmail, according to a company employee and internal emails.
AIG Exec Quits over Bonus Row
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/03/bubblecrash.html
# More Troubled Firms Paying Bonuses
About $50 million in retention bonuses will be paid by 19 companies receiving government money, the New York Times reports.
# Fed Needs to Double Its Spending for Recovery: Pimco
# Fed's Lockhart: Better Data Does Not Signal Recovery
# Forget Stocks: The Real Rally Now Is In Corporate Bonds
# Credit Crunch Will Lead to Oil Shock: Consultant
# Regulatory Reform Plan Calls for Increased Oversight
# World's Largest Listed Hedge Fund's Assets Fall
# Senator Says More Aid Likely for US Automakers

Bubble/Crash manipulation casualties

Bubble/Crash Drugs: Bushvilles http://tinyurl.com/dkogyg

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/scenes_from_the_recession.html

Cities Deal With a Surge in Shanty Towns


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/us/26tents.html?_r=1&hp

Volatile markets

It's absolutely insane markets with volatility hell and deception using Eco data. The insane price volatility doesn't show on VIX.

Major markets (DOW, SPX and Nasdaq) up and down 6% price movements in less than 3 hours.

FAS moved 35% in less than 3 hours (1 pm - 4 pm) and major markets 6%.

FAS moved 20% in less than one hour going into close.

Too manipulative and volatile as if bomb is going off.

Gullible & Potential Big War with Iran

Gullible even after massive financial disaster going for vertical moves -- go to beach -- not worth messing with drugged markets.

New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods unexpectedly rebounded in February, rising for the first time in seven months, according to a government report on Wednesday that could bring some cheer to an economy mired in recession.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29874481

Another data manipulation

______________________
Don't "lie-to-me" :

Investors can't handle the truth
We've adopted a culture of whining and embraced the 'Lie to Me' mindset
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:35 p.m. EDT March 23, 2009

Meanwhile, it keeps getting worse. And our leaders know it, know America is trapped in this insidious "lie-to-me" mindset. They know that if they just "lie to me," we'll let them do whatever they want. http://tinyurl.com/c3lhc5


Iran's supreme leader vows nuclear path can't be blocked
Israeli intelligence chief warns of Iranian nuke development
www.chinaview.cn 2009-03-25 22:26:12

MI chief: Iran waiting with nuclear bomb

Major-General Amos Yadlin tells Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that while Tehran possesses full technological capabilities needed to manufacture atomic weapon, it prefers to act slowly so as not to evoke West's wrath

Amnon Meranda

Published:

03.25.09, 13:48 / Israel News

Final Count Down 3-4-5?

Markets are trading at critical pivotal prices which could be ST tops and which could be followed by sharp declines to finish off the final decline into mid year. Because of the recent excessive bullish sentiment, it is difficult to pounce the ST top; however, the 3/6/2009 could become one of the well-known false bottom. VIX and CPC formation is getting ready to explode which I think that it is to upside as markets trade down. Markets will soon confirm or negate the scenario since markets are trading near at pivotal S/R. After reviewing all major market charts and formations and considering other factors, we could see unexpected market actions as we have seen during the last couple of weeks. But for this time, we could see market actions to the opposite side.



VIX and VXN breakout to upside?


Pivotal Resistances:
SPX 830 +/-
DOW 7780 +/-
Nasdaq 1555 +/-
Q 31 +/-

The cyclical bull market will come when markets trade to the final target to SPX 555 +/-, DOW 5555 +/-, and Nasdaq 1000 +/- for the bear market which started in October 2007.




$BKX

$BKX 17.75 reversed at the same time as SPX 666.79 on 3/6/2009 and rallied to 31.05 on 3/23/2009 -- 70% rally from the low which is below the 1995 support at 30. $BKX is also trading near at the pivotal resistance 31 +/-. The bearish case for the major markets is to resume the final down move while $BKX is testing near the low 20, a higher low.

During $BKX is testing the low, the targets for major markets are SPX 555 +/-, DOW 5555 +/-, and Nasdaq 1000 +/-.
________________________________________________________________________

The cessation of the recent rally as the ST Top to resume the final down move:

Posted by: *~1Best~* Date: Tuesday, March 24, 2009 10:37:06 AM

Markets are trading at pivotal S/R which could be a start of a strong move to downside which is technically sound after the recent reactive bear market rally of 20% +/- from SPX 666.79 on 3/6/2009 to SPX 823.37 on 3/23/2009. The bearish case is a long squeeze which is the opposite reaction to the recent vicious rally. A bearish case is, rather than resuming the strong bounce since 3/6/2009, resuming the down move during the Q1 earning report as a final down move.

Resistances:
SPX 830 +/-
DOW 7780 +/-
Nasdaq 1555 +/-
Q 31 +/-

The volatility setup could be a contrarian setup which is signaling a strong down-move, but again markets are trading at all important pivotal junctures.


$VIX and $CPC as of 3/23/2009:

$VIX closed at 42.01 while $CPC is at 0.70 which is the 2 year low (CPCI is lower than CPCE which P/C ratio is saying many are buying Index ETFs)



Thou shall not "lie-to-me" :

Investors can't handle the truth
We've adopted a culture of whining and embraced the 'Lie to Me' mindset
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:35 p.m. EDT March 23, 2009

Meanwhile, it keeps getting worse. And our leaders know it, know America is trapped in this insidious "lie-to-me" mindset. They know that if they just "lie to me," we'll let them do whatever they want. http://tinyurl.com/c3lhc5

Markets are trading at pivotal junctures.

Markets are trading at pivotal S/R which could be a start of a strong move to downside which is technically sound after the recent reactive bear market rally of 20% +/- from SPX 666.79 on 3/6/2009 to SPX 823.37 on 3/23/2009. The bearish case is a long squeeze which is the opposite reaction to the recent vicious rally.

Resistances:
SPX 830 +/-
DOW 7780 +/-
Nasdaq 1555 +/-
Q 31 +/-

The volatility setup could be a contrarian setup which is signaling a strong down-move, but again markets are trading at all important pivotal junctures.

$VIX and $CPC as of 3/23/2009:

VIX closed at 42.01 while $CPC is at 0.70 which is the 2 year low (CPCI is lower than CPCE which P/C ratio is saying many are buying Index ETFs)

Irrational markets

Markets like this ~ after vicious rally - go to beach. Not worth dealing with high volatility and the April Q1 earning report volatile market actions.

Low volume markets -- not many are fooled into markets.

Profit taking


Low volume markets -- not many are fooled into markets.
$COMPX 1555.77 98.50 6.76% 2,254,140
$INDU 7775.86 497.48 6.84% 1,815,721
$INX 822.92 54.38 7.08%

Bubbling up in light volumes.

Why volatility?
What markets would be intending is using price volatility to wipe out sideline money after ruining majority of Americans using other methods such as the ARM housing and tech bubble and crash.



VIX closed at 42.01 while $CPC is at 0.70 which is the 2 year low (CPCI is lower than CPCE which P/C ratio is saying many are buying Index ETFs)



This list was the 2008 expectations in the year when markets crashed.

Now majority of Americans are in debt, in mortgage trouble, or jobless. Markets are pumping like on drugs on spending trillions of debt. If anyone is lured into the parabolic market, it must be because of the influence using illegal substances. Don't be fooled into chasing parabolic markets as markets will crash worse than it went up.

---

Biggest Dow Point Gains and Percent Gains

Today's 497.48 point move (6.84%) for the Dow was the 5th biggest one-day point gain and 23rd biggest one-day percentage gain. Below we highlight a list of the biggest point and percentage gains for the Dow since 1900. We've now had 11 400-point up days during the current bear market, so as happy as they make investors feel, they haven't been out of the ordinary.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/03/biggest-dow-point-gains-and-percent-gains.html

Too Fast and Too Far in hyperbola price actions

Drunken markets in hyperbola are trading near at the recent high, Qs 30 as example, in premarket. Anyone who chases this drunken, hyperbole market is irrational. Let's see where this market ends, but the recent resistances are rational resistances given the recent hyperbola market actions.

Resistances: SPX 800, Qs 30, Nasdaq 1500, DOW 7500.

Markets already rallied 20% on the news when Bernanke spoke.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29834595/

Financial Crisis

We do not have R.E. recovery yet. There are many who are going through detrimental financial trouble, and it will take more time to recover from the current economic crisis and the recent hyperbole price action is unreasonable.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/29779920/

$USD support 82 +/-.

$USD traded to 70.70 on 3/17/2008, then reversed. It traded to 89.62 on 3/4/2009, and now trading at 83.48. Support is 82 +/-.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31739712
Monday, September 08, 2008 7:56:44 PM

USD rally means EURUSD is falling and it is showing +D on daily.
EUR/USD topped when USD hit bottom at 70.70.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29709069
Monday, June 02, 2008 7:09:57 AM
~~ $USD ~~ breaking above Sym Triangle TL 73 R ~> 1st target 75 +/-
70.70 VST TL support

GAS went up 80% from 0.82 to 1.48

GAS went up 80% from 0.82 to 1.48, a sign of hidden hyperinflation in reality.