1998 Scenario

1998 scenario: As of 1/22/08, a correction to SPX 1270 +/- target is met. As noted on 12/12 and 12/23, markets have met targeted corrections. For 1998 scenario, I have shown the wave "4" formation as of 1/22/08 on the cycle chart with EW notation. (WIP) As shown on the cycle, we have peaking 4 yr cycle with declining 8yr cycle.



http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=25519214

Date: 12/23/2007 4:30:46 PM

SPX daily in a Diamond formation: SPX 1485 is a pivotal resistance within a diamond formation after a strong trend up since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom which is the 4yr/8yr cycle bottoms as noted on previous posts.

Breaking above 1485/1500, SPX will retrace to 1575 +/-; conversely, breaking below the lower Diamond TL support, it will retrace to the Jun-Jul 2006 TL support targeting 1250 +/-.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25256353
Date:12/12/2007 8:47:23 PM

Huge and beautiful runs since 2006 bottoms. Markets consolidated during 2007.

$TRAN, $BKX, and $SOX were leading.

Ideal market correction:
Qs 47.50/41
TRAN 4110
DOW 11300
SPX 1275
NAS 2200



http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25519214

Date:12/23/2007 4:18:44 PM
Post #of 5605

Market Cycle update and comments: WIP (still in work in progress)

http://www.trend-signals.com/Comments/analysis/SPXLTCycle.htm

CYCLES update: SPX is in late stage of 8yr cycle after Jun-Jul 2006 4yr cycle low. Markets are in late stage of bull market near pivotal point. SPX consolidated since 10/11/07 high, forming a diamond top formation. While we do not have a confirmation of a top as SPX 1485 is a resistance which is a pivot for bull or bear case. SPX correction target is 1250 +/- which will be retracing 2006 rally. Additional note on EW count based on major market comparative performances.

20yr cycle low in 1995 and 2015
16yr cycle low in 2006
8yr low in 2002
4yr cycle low in 2002 and 2006



Performances of major markets since Oct 2002 low are DOW 60.18% and SPX 67.59, the two indices have performed comparable percent while NYA has significantly out performed other markets, 95.75%. Since 1995, SPX gained 215.56%, DOW 249.92%, and NYA 261.69% even though the market performances have shown volatility during 2007, SPX 4.66%, DOW, 7.92%, QQQQ 20.49%, and Nasdaq 11.46%.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25519042

Comparing economic condition and the major market relative performances as stated above.

As of 12/21/07, SPX closed at 1484, 50dma resistance after bouncing off from LT trend support as shown on the chart.

Invisible Hand Power on Hard or Soft Landing

I noted my thoughts on Soro's comment as shown below. Then, there is Bernanke parody. As noted earlier, I think that the Fed/super rich has a good control over how hard or soft landing we should have during this economic cycle.

On the contrary to Soro thinking on "Banks have lost control":
Yes, banks have lost control, but I think that the Fed has foreseen ARM-melt and has allowed it to happen because they didn't want to micro-manage the industry; however, they knew this would be happening and was thinking remedies.

I noted other speculative, alternative motives of the Fed.




DOW closed at 12378.61 at weekly TL resistance. With the MSFT earning news, it will trade above the resistance tomorrow.

Since Oct 11, 2007 top, Markets corrected: H-L

Qs 23%
Nasdaq 23%
SPX 19%
DOW 18%
NYA 19%
OEX 18%

The above correction easily makes us to think that we are in bear market. I've noted that we could see SPX 1600-1700 in 2008 with the last wave "V" on this reversal low as IT bottom, if not, the low for the year.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26223710

It is too early to determine whether we will trade to the new bull market targets as we are just coming off from the high volatility. It is easier to think that we are in bear market at this point; nevertheless, I would not rule out that markets will trade to new bull market highs noted above.

During economic down cycle, markets do fluctuate and markets could trade to new highs during the economic down cycle. The formation will create soft economic down cycle period. Nevertheless, I do not think that we are launching a brand new bull market yet as noted on my LT cycle comment that we are in maturing 8 year cycle.

Big Bang Day follow up with Bigger Reversal Day

After the big reversal day with the Fed big bang 20 year history breaking action,

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/01/big-bang-day.html

we now have another bigger reversal day with greater power.

Today, we have intraday range of:

DOW 631.86 points (5.15%)
Nasdaq 117.59 (5.08%)
SPX 69.04 (5.16%)

Qs 2.54 (5.77%)
QID 6.35 (12.60%)

I noted lower VIX reading right after 1 pm LOD price action, which was the indeed the LOD, and markets rallied signaling the retest of the Lows, so far.

With the additional news that the Fed could cut another 0.75 % on the Fed day, Jan 30, market rallied making the stronger reversal day.

After my analysis on market breadth, I can conclude that markets are very oversold at the support level which I noted for this market correction to SPX 1275 +/- level.

We have distressed sectors rallies such as XHB up 12.40% today and up 34.69% from 52 wk low. Also, COH reported a good earning today, XLY up 8.31% today. These two sectors are most distressed sectors which are now signaling a recovery.

After seeing my projected market correction level of SPX 1250 - 1275 +/- and based on other market analysis indicates that we have seen the worst of market condition and will see market building bottoms at this level to trade up for the next few months, if not, close to lows of the year.




We have MSFT earning report tomorrow, therefore, with the higher volatility, we have higher risk/reward in the current market condition. Furthermore, SPX 1600 for the 2008 target is not out of question as I think that it could be accomplished.





Come on Baby, Light my fire: All-Time high short interest.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Py_JN5lPCC0
http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/01/big-bang-day-follow-up-with-bigger.html

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Short interest jumped 8.7
percent on the New York Stock Exchange in mid-January, rising
to an all-time high, the exchange said on Tuesday, as short
sellers sought to take advantage of a global sell-off in
stocks.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN2234246720080123

Volatility is sickening

VIX went up again to the previous high. Futures are falling apart again.

This market is becoming very annoying to deal with.

Market breadth indicators are showing extreme readings which noted during the last several weeks. Now, some breadth indicators are showing decade low readings.

Hope that the Fed action was not another first class fooling day; otherwise, it would be another banking on the permanent distrust of the Fed actions.

Fed Makes History - Big Bang sticks?

Fed Makes History: There is actually no precedence in the past 20 years of the Fed cutting by 75 basis points in a single meeting.


The Fed cut .75 points which save the market today turning a crash day into a big bang day.

Intraday range of the big bang day:

DOW 457.90 3.83%
SPX 48.80 3.65%
Nasdaq 97.40 4.25%

Bernanke managed the potential crash day into the "soft landing" day. As noted before, based on my market analysis, markets have complete control of all bubbles and crashes in the past.

As of today, SPX 1275 correction target is met and I am seeing major support actions by the Fed and the Gov. I think that the market will trade up for the next few months at the IT supports. However, market reaction to AAPL earning report was negative in AH, nevertheless market reacted positive to TXN. Therefore, I need to see a confirmation of the reversal.


Previous Market Analysis targeting SPX 1275 +/-

http://www.trend-signals.com/Comments/analysis/SPXLTCycle.htm


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25256353

Huge and beautiful runs since 2006 bottoms. Markets consolidated during 2007.

$TRAN, $BKX, and $SOX were leading.

Ideal market correction:
Qs 47.50/41
TRAN 4110
DOW 11300
SPX 1275
NAS 2200

Greedy Pig Style Market

This is a fact based on all my market analysis, studies, prayers, and other facts. The fact that "The Fed" is "Private" , not a government entity is a clue. The rest fell into puzzle.

Posted by: 3Saints
In reply to: sylvester80 who wrote msg# 579016
Date:1/21/2008 1:45:39 PM
Post #of 579031

The real problem >> THE FED >> Bush, Bernanke and Greenspan are but puppets

The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered. - Thomas Jefferson

European, Asian Markets Plunge
~~~
e.g. Say the truth, greedy pigs devoured markets.
~~~
Monday January 21, 10:30 am ET
By Toby Anderson, AP Business Writer
European, Asian Markets Plunge Amid Pessimism Over US Stimulus Plan

LONDON (AP) -- European and Asian stock markets plunged Monday following declines on Wall Street last week amid investor pessimism over the U.S. government's stimulus plan to prevent a recession.

The U.K. benchmark FTSE-100 dropped 3.9 percent to 5,673.1; France's CAC-40 Index plunged 4.5 percent to 4,861.2, while Germany's slumped 5.35 percent to 6,922.7.

Dream Rally

IM Dreaming for Market Rally: IBM stock looks cheap: Barron's

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The stock of International Business Machines (IBM.N), which continues to make sales gains in emerging markets and among smaller U.S. companies, looks cheap, Barron's said on Sunday.

The magazine said the stock, which closed up about 2.3 percent at $103.40 on Friday, had not yet reached Barron's target of roughly $125.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080120/bs_nm/ibm_stock_dc_1

Oversold Market with almost 98% bears with converted bulls to bears

IYC was sending recession warnings over one year ago, now, how deep it will be is the issue. As markets closed at supports, even though it has broken LT trendlines with very negative sentiment, we have a major turn date during the next week, ahead of the Fed meeting at the end of Jan, so, with AAPL/MSFT earning reports, let's muster up supports.


IYC charts:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=25254682



Converted Bears

Looks to be all mega bulls turned bearish now, including the public chart lists bulls. I commented on the two public chart list bulls during December as I see them screaming bull.

I just noticed that one of them has completely flipped to downside with the similar magnitude from upside.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26138291




Barking at wrong tree

Again, McHugh barking at wrong tree as it is Greenspan, bark at greenspan, Not Bernanke.

~~~

January 19, 2008

The Fed Fiddles While Stocks Burn and Crash
by Robert McHugh

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9264.htm








Bernanke dropping ball and lollygabbing: treat50 brought my attention to Walker's chart several weeks ago. As I was on the public chart list during Oct-Nov 2005 calling the bottom, I would know if Walker was around, but he is new to me.

Right around I was posting 12/12/07 bearish comment, Walker was screaming at bears that they were wrong during the last few years. He was so sure that market was going to blast off. Now, he was so wrong, he decided to blame Bernanke, but does not see recession. While his comments are interesting sometimes even though I don't read his posts often enough, his comments are entertaining. He has a potential to be a comedy writer.

If Marice wants markets to rally, he should kiss the ground of the Fed walked on as the big money sure has power to control markets. LOL





http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808

1/20 Commentary: In June of 2003, near the beginning of this bull market, short term interest rates were lowered all the way down to 1 percent. By June of 2006 the Fed had raised ST rates all the way back up to 5.25 percent and left them there until Sept. of 2007, when serious troubles became apparent to everyone concerning the housing recession and subprime mortgage fiasco. So in 2007 the FOMC lowered rates down to 4.25 percent. This occurred in 3 phases in 2007, with a 50 basis point cut on Sept. 18, a 25 basis point cut Oct. 31, and another 25 basis point cut December 11, bringing the current Federal Funds rate to 4.25 percent.

Now the Fed obviously left rates at the 5.25 percent for way to long, over a year, and we are now feeling the repercussions of that bad decision. Rates were left high for an extended amount of time, supposedly to fight inflation due to high energy prices. This error of driving rates too high, leaving them there too long, then cutting them too slowly is one of the mistakes that is compounding our current economic problems. If we do have a recession it will be the new Fed Chairman's fault, because he has misinterpreted high oil prices as inflationary, rather than choosing to ease monetary policy in favor of economic growth. The Consumers discretionary spending power is reduced because of high gasoline prices, while simultaneously interest rates were left too high for too long, resulting in no relief for the consumer.

Given the housing recession, the credit crisis, and our energy problems, not to mention that the economy is sluggish growing below trend, the Fed felt that they needed to have lowered rates by just 1 percent in 2007. Bernanke is out of touch with reality, by leaving rates at 5.25 % for so long and now lowering them back down at a snails pace. He could have spared the market a lot of pain had he simply lowered rates in a timely manner. Bernanke needs to become very aggressive and lower rates 75 basis points and continue to cut after that.

Bernanke has been a johnny-come-lately regarding interest rates because I believe he misinterpreted high energy prices as inflationary. Bernanke has dropped the ball, I have no idea why in the world, he is waiting around for January 30th to lower rates. We just got the core CPI data last week and found that core CPI came in at 2.4 % YOY for 2007, which is LOWER than the 2.6 % YOY core CPI of 2006. Higher energy prices act as a tax at the gas pump, which slows growth, but has not been inflationary. Because if it were we would have seen it spill over into core CPI, and core CPI would be a lot higher than 2.4 %.

Bernanke said last week during the Q&A, that he didn't think we would slip into a recession, and I agree with that scenario right now. But if he continues to drop the ball, lollygagging

around then there is no doubt that we will go into a recession due to the rookie Fed Chair's incompetence. When you have a rookie Fed Chair at the helm, you run rookie risks with the economy. This guy isn't the Maestro Allen Greenspan.

Doom & Gloom

It is very depressing to read all negative writings on different blogs, of course, now all bears are raising hell. All kinds of lists of doom-gloom-hell factors with extensive pessimistic details for failures of programs to revive our economy. It is quite depressing to read those armageddon, pessimistic writings. Bernanke is worthless, Bush plan will not work, Rate cut is too late and too little, US will go into deep recession, like pessimism disease spread. If super rich and the Fed wants to drag our economy to hell, yes, I think that we will see very grim future as I think that super rich and the Fed has the control over our economy with significant power.

We could not gain much by pouncing on recession as USD or OIL will not go down as many think that those will. So far, it seems that markets are keeping the price up with an excuse of global demand. As pessimism is catching fire, it is just bad to worse as pessimism is like disease.




I hope that super rich will not kill the economy to get rich from short-side.

Hope that Bernanke (super rich group) will show good will as I think that Greenspan power is extremely strong. Think about all wealth he could accumulate since his appointment as the Fed chair. You heard Paulson/the hedge fund guy, not TS Paulson, getting 28 billion just from ARM melt.

simply-hell-raised-by-greenspan

Now, think about if you had complete control of the markets as I think that they have.... the wealth accumulation during the bubbles and the burst. Enormous.

I was so naive about the reality, the invisible power. LOL When I understood all and see what is going on, it is quite stunting. LOL Bernanke is quite remarkable person and very smart. Hope that he will do better job than filthy pigs whoever that might be as I really don't know.

It is a good thing that I believe in God. As I asked God to help me to trust Him than anything or anyone else.

Oh, God, it is a good thing that I believe in You.

Have a nice weekend

COT: large speculators on NQ

NQ COT shows large speculators were quite bearish and I am surprised that commercials gave the money away unless they are all greenspan customers.



http://www.trend-signals.com/Comments/2006/COT.htm

Bulls - sing the Bernanke Song, LT TL are broken.

DOW Sell-off was orderly.

A poster compared the OE sell on DOW to 1987 sell. However, even though we saw severe sell-off during the OE week, the DOW price action shows a symmetrical price actions since Mar 14, 2007 low ~ Aug 16, 2007 low ~ Jan 18, 2008 low.


Market LT trendlines are broken.

During the OE week, market long term trendlines are broken as shown on the DOW weekly chart. SPX and Nasdaq LT TL are also broken; hence, we now can acknowledge that we are in bear market for a serious correction which started since the Oct 11, 2007 top.

This is not surprising as I noted that $Tran, $SOX and $BKX were leading the market, specifically on 12/12/07; and noted that I wasn't bullish during 2008. While fresh bulls were screaming that we are making new highs and screaming bears were wrong during the last few years, which I pointed out that he was going overboard, the bear markets have sneaked upon us during the OE week.

Nevertheless, all major brokerage firms have claimed that SPX will trade to 1500-1700 during 2008; so, let's see whether markets will regroup. They might restate their market forecast for 2008 which is irresponsible if they readjust too often; but, they could restate during mid year if market condition continues to deteriorate.

We need to hear good news.











It was a big disappointment for bulls for sure, in fact, Mark Hulbert noted the top 10 best market timers were bullish, remember his comment. I had bull visits as shown below as an example. He was a long time poster who I knew during the last two years on CS, but maybe bulls will be back; but, LT TL supports are broken during the OE week.

~~~

Posted by: cyclepsychic
In reply to: None Date:12/12/2007 5:13:29 PM
Post #4864 of 4864

Not everything is perfect, but you must listen to me..2008 estimated S&P earnings at $97.40 and market can certainly trade at reasonable 17 times. You must quit being bearish at the risk of losing your "good" market timing reputation. We just finished a 10+! correction...it is over. Stay bullish

The Winner - Lucy In The Sky with Diamonds

The Lucy in the Sky was the hit during January! The Winner
Lucy in the Sky

Someone must have liked this. Reading-bernanke-boss

Another Schizophrenic Day

BERNANKE REFUSING TO RATE CUT - NO ACTION

After the morning gap, markets were selling off various excuses, not enough, too late... etc.

If Bernanke does not do Emergency rate cut, he will likely ruin his reputation as helicoper Ben, but will likely be known as a big blood sucker by not responding to the needs.

Bernanke was chit-chatting with his intellectual, politically correct, sweet rhetorics, but is refusing to take actions. Of course, that would be perceived an excuse for markets to sell off. We are in schizophrenic market condition.

Markets are blaming "Bernanke", but I do not think that it is Bernanke who is responsible for the sell off as I think that he is stimulating the sell-off along with Greenspan. Unless proven otherwise, markets are completely manipulated by the twin brothers.

Simply Hell Raised... by Greenspan

Hell fire up day. It is obvious that the recent selling must have made greenspan wealth over 2 trillion.. just a wild guess.

Make big money on the way up, make bigger money on the way down.



Greenspan joins NY hedge fund

By Anuj Gangahar in New York

Published: January 15 2008 05:05 | Last updated: January 15 2008 05:05

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is to become an adviser to Paulson & Co, the $28bn New York-based hedge fund company that achieved spectacular investment returns at the height of the credit squeeze last year.

Mr Greenspan will join the advisory board of the credit specialist investment house. Paulson will be the only hedge fund that Mr Greenspan will work with under the terms of the agreement.

Paulson was propelled into the spotlight last year as perhaps the biggest known winner in making aggressive bets against US subprime home loans. Investors estimate that its funds racked up profits of $12bn.

Mr Greenspan already holds separate advisory roles with Deutsche Bank and Pimco, the asset management firm. The financial terms of the arrangement were not disclosed.

John Paulson, president of the hedge fund, said: “Few people, if any in the world, have the experience with, and depth of understanding of, global financial markets [of Mr] Greenspan.”

He said Mr Greenspan would share his perspectives with the Paulson investment management team on the direction of the economy, assessing th

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ccb18b8-c2fb-11dc-b617-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Bernanke Stubborn Act spoils Rally

Intra day rally attempts are spoiled by Bernanke stubborn act that he refuses to lower interest rates doing nothing after markets bounced off from IT supports near at SPX 1364, DOW 12392, Nasdaq 2361, Qs 45.46 - Another Day with crazy gyration.

Markets closed with reversal formations after bouncing off from LT/IT supports. I think that markets will find support at the current level.

USD: Contrary to many are expecting that Bernanke will lower rate, Bernanke is refusing to lower rate, so USD rallied today.

Between Bernanke and Greenspan, looking like twin evil games, USA are all emptied out, playing blaming games.

~~~

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22682134

With the stock market suffering another serious bout of volatility, investors can expect Ben Bernanke to stay on message about the central bank’s remedy for the stalling economy when he appears before Congress on Thursday.

~~~



Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House agreed Wednesday to develop a bipartisan economic stimulus plan to help avert a possible recession.

~~~


TOMO:

You would wonder what has happened with the liquidity when you see financial market performances.




SPX closed at 1380 after bouncing off from LT support near at 1364 and I think that market will find supports to trade higher as markets are oversold with extreme negative sentiment.





Qs closed at 46.05 after bouncing off from 45.46 which is a breakout support. Market are oversold as we can see with relatively good earning report, INTC was sold off twice based on the extreme negative sentiment. The earning report was good even though the company did not guide higher.

VXN - Program Trading including Volatility

VXN went down after Nasdaq trading off 60+ points. This market is manipulative in higher degree. Lately, volatility reading is not correlating to the market price actions by which program trading including VIX/VXN will not function properly.

Financial Market Turning into Big Gambling Place & Criminal

As days go by, markets are turning into insane up or down with big fund pushing markets up or down. It is like dealing with market as a "ballyhoo" game fish which is used to catch big ones, meaning that they will make you feeling good by letting you win some, but ultimately markets get the most in big way - like gambling. This market is more becoming like a big gambling place where things worked before which were used to make you feel good will be used to kill - like drugs, insanity lately.

The market is at its best to fool the most, so far, what I have seen. I am sure that it will get worse. What's worse for most is what's better for the gamble dealers. No real logic to markets except super big money pushing markets up or down to get most of money out of many.


Markets are legally criminal.


What a criminal market this is. First BOA downgrades the stock, now taking down the stock again. Criminal shorters are driving markets absolutely nuts.

~~~

Intel's Profit Jumps 51%, But Investors Disappointed
By Don Clark


Intel Corp. posted a 51% surge in fourth-quarter profit but sounded a cautious note about business conditions in the first quarter and the rest of the year.

The forecast by the giant chip maker, whose results are seen as a gauge for global technology demand, sent its shares down more than 14% in after-hours trading.

Intel, of Santa Clara, Calif., has rebuilt its competitive position after temporarily falling behind rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. While Intel has been meeting or exceeding most of its technical milestones, AMD has been struggling to deliver a long-awaited line of microprocessor chips.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120042975465292145.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

Crazy Market during Option Ex Week & Rate Cut

Trump: Fed Should Cut a Full Point
Posted By:Tom Brennan

If Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke were on The Celebrity Apprentice, he would have been the first to go, Donald Trump told Cramer Tuesday. Uncle Ben’s problem: He’s reacting to the market rather than leading it.

The billionaire and host of NBC’s The Apprentice said he was “shocked” interest rates haven’t been cut more aggressively. Trump called for a full-point reduction rather than the conservative quarter-point cuts Bernanke and gang have been implementing.

“We’re in a recession,” Trump declared. “The question is: How bad does it get?”

Criticism of the Fed has been growing as more and more economic data come in soft. (Read about the latest soft numbers here). With a possible interest-rate cut coming from the Fed's regular meeting Jan. 30, the rhetoric has been getting louder, particularly from those with business tied to the interest-rate sensitive building sector.

Housing may be collapsing in markets across the U.S., but Manhattan is still very profitable for Trump International. The Donald credited strong demand from Europe and Asia for the borough’s success, but “how long it continues I can’t tell you.”

Big banks whipsaw targeting individual stocks

Big international banks taking individual stocks up or down to get money out of rest of circle traders.

They target individual stocks up or down.


Read what Bernanke is saying... the truth inside the joke.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26006342

~~

Paulson & Co's Private Greenspan Shrine

Perhaps the height of Wall Street's Alan Greenspan worship was reached with a 1998 article in The New Republic about a bond traders who actually created a shrine to Greenspan. "Dozens of news photographs of Greenspan adorn the walls; glass casing encloses two Bic pens Greenspan supposedly used in 1993," the article reported. "Quotations from more than 30 of his speeches are posted under a sign that reads 'Greenspan’s Teachings.' The centerpiece is a red leather chair that sits in the middle of the room, surrounded by blue velvet ropes. A placard perched on the armrest says Greenspan sat in the chair in 1948—at the time, he was still in college. 'Some nights when we’ve lost money,' trader Brent Donalds confides, 'I come in here and sit in the chair and think. It gives me inspiration.'"

The problem is that the author of the article was Stephen Glass, and it was completely fabricated. The bond outfit described didn't exist outside his imagination. There was no red chair surrounded by blue velvet ropes. But Greenspan worship was at such a height at that point that people actually believed the story, or at least found it almost plausible for a while.

These days Greenspan's reputation is not what it was. But this morning the Financial Times reports that he still is held in high enough esteem by some financial players that he landed a job at Paulson & Co, the $28 billion hedge fund that famously profited by calling the crash of the subprime mortgage market. Paulson & Co will enjoy exclusive access among hedge funds to the advise of Greenspan. He also has advisory deals with Deutsche Bank and Pimco.

We are kind of hoping they do give him a red leather chair from which to issue his advice.

Greenspan joins NY hedge fund [Financial Times]

Posted In: Alan Greenspan

http://www.dealbreaker.com/2008/01/paulson_cos_private_greenspan.php

Fedspeak no longer: Meet the new open source Federal Reserve

Frankly speaking, it is lucky to have the big brain like Bernanke to handle the current Economic situation even though I think that the Fed was under control, almost 100%. As noted, Tight monetary policy will create recession. During 1997-1999, rate cuts helped. If you have millions in savings and want to have secure interest income, higher interest is fine if you are conservative. For super rich, higher interest rate, tight monetary policy ===> Recession == > best case scenario for rich since their value of wealth will increase. Of course, super rich would be in hedge fund shorting. So, super rich will get the astronomical wealth during the downturn.

I owe the American public an apology. I entered my office determined to end the legacy of “purposeful obfuscation” (as coined by my predecessor Alan Greenspan) known as Fedspeak or as Greenspeak. However, I did not have the courage to do so.

When I started my term, I was overwhelmed by the way the media portrayed my remarks. Distraught, I sought the advice of Greenspan. He handed me a copy of the manuscript of his book, gave me a wry smile, and told me to “go fuck off”. The message was clear: Continue the tradition of Fedspeak.

I’ve always had a clear monetary policy in my mind, and if I were born a stronger man I would have shared it with you from day 1 on this blog. But alas, I held the status quo of Fedspeak — which has had the opposite effect as I’d intended. The Wall Street Journal has made this clear:

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, facing criticism that the central bank has sent confusing messages about interest rates in recent months, has decided to speak more forcefully and more often.

America, please forgive this humble economist. While most of you never understood a word of your Econ 101 class, I promise to make monetary policy crystal clear on this blog from now on.

Market Commentary - Monday Thanks, Big Blue IBM!

SPX update: SPX closed at 1416.25 with IBM good earning news. As noted on 1/9/08, markets have traded above the pivotal supports, for SPX 1378.

I commented on different cycles with supporting cycle notations. In summary, markets are in late 8 year cycle and, of course, 4.5 yr cycles as 9yr cycle is a standard fixed cycle. Note that SPX remained in a trading range for 2007. The successful wave {5} target will be 1600-1650. Corresponding DOW near 14500 +/-, Nasdaq 3000 +/- and Qs 60 +/-.

Considering the oversold market with positive divergences, I think that we will likely see a bottom building at this level. And we have seen positive comments on the markets today.

Having said that, it is better to be cautious as markets are still jittery about the financial sector and potential recession even though I think that financial markets were preparing for the jitters since housing market top in mid 2005.

As noted earlier, I think that markets have priced in a lot of bad news going into Q4 earning report, not like Q3 when markets were pricing in good news as price actions have shown up. Therefore, any good news would be helping the markets.

We have PPI and C earning in the morning, markets could be volatile while I hope that markets have priced in a lot of bad news. INTC & LLTC in AH.

Good luck

~~~

Date:1/9/2008 7:55:33 PM
Post #of 5413

SPX closed at 1409.13 after reversing at 1378.07. As noted earlier closing above 1400 is a good sign of reversal with the price formation ending {4} of {5}.

A Sign of Life for Bulls

Note upgrading US stocks and Trucking sector.


Several interesting strategist/analyst calls this morning, all trying to pick a bottom: Bob Pisani

1) Credit Suisse recommending an overweight in U.S. stocks because the Fed is likely to cut rates to respond to the slowing economy quicker than their European counterparts. They are recommending a 5 percent overweight in U.S. stocks. Is it possible that the U.S. will finally outperform emerging markets in 2008?

2) Ed Wolfe at Bear Stearns, who has underweighted trucking companies for 2 1/2 years, today upgrades the sector, saying "We still believe fundamentals are weak, particularly for LTL providers, and that 4Q and 1Q reports will be terrible, but our sense is the stocks are closer to a bottom and the risk/reward is more balanced."

3)Credit Suisse upgraded the home improvement stocks today--Home Depot

4) JP Morgan strategist Thomas Lee noted that the Russell 2000, the main small cap index, registered a "seller exhaustion" signal last week, meaning that he believes that index has bottomed and may start to rally.

Note that all the above did not say the bad news was over; implicit in their remarks is that markets usually bottom before all the bad news is out.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22649550

IBM - a king of Tech - Tech reports will be better than expected?

IBM reported quite good earning report.

IBM reported a better-than-expected 24 percent rise in preliminary quarterly earnings Monday on strong sales in Asia, Europe and emerging markets, driving its shares up as much as 10 percent and spurring a broader tech rally.

I think that we will see good earning reports from the companies which we were seeing good earning reports during Q3. Markets were pricing in bad news going Q4 earning reports, not like Q3 as markets were pricing in good news which were reflected in up price actions. For example, with the recent downgrade by BOA, would think that bad news is priced in unless the earning report is extremely bad.

Jim Goldman's comment on Tech.

What are the US problems

2011 - the end of the time? We are hearing 2011 The end of the world by Herold Camping. I was talking about "Armageddon" because some signs which I see that we are facing the evil force.

How does this relate to stock market direction? We obviously have very bearish sentiment after the sell-off; but, as noted that markets have not closed below the Wednesday low. Of course, it is obviously elementary math to find the next support levels; but, why would be crush markets?

Of course we know that super rich could force markets to go up or down, but I think that markets are at important level, so, maybe we should see some help which will sustain market support.


What's the problem with American?

Let's not forget the real problems for America, high trade deficit, exporting jobs, and over spending. Focusing on other issues are just majoring in minor issues. Unless we fix the core problems, we can not solve the problems

Going into OE week, Volatility was coming down from the coiling upper resistance. Breaking above R is certainly not a good news.

Market Commentary - Friday Double Tongued Bernanke

BERNANKE has "double tongue" and does not deliever what he says.

Evil greed bloody day - making one of the worst breadth lower than Oct 2002. Any more to say?

One point is that markets have not breached the Wednesday low.

Until proven otherwise: Markets were playing fool games all along while, I think, they, the top of the big money chain - the bosses of Bernanke, had a full fooling biz plan from beginning to ending. When big money owns all banks, it is just a matter of juggling to fool everyone.

Why are they crushing USA... of course, it is the biggest money making melting pot.

Re: BofA Countrywise Deal


~~~

Women in Housing and Finance, oh baby
By Ben Bernanke
1/11/08 2:25 PM EST | Washington DC

As I made clear in my previous post, I’d never give any credence to the Wall Street bankers’ advice on cutting interest rates. However, the media (NYT, WSJ, Kudlow) portrayed my most recent remarks as a capitulation to the base bankers’ demands to cut interest rates.

None of those lightweight articles focused on the host of my speech, which was a group called Women in Housing and Finance. No one in housing and finance has done well recently, and the women are no exception. That industry longs for a big fed-bailout.

Had Men in Housing and Finance asked me to cut interest rates, I would have promptly rebuffed them. However, the Women in Housing and Finance packed the room full of money honeys.

Prior to my speech, the ladies of housing peppered me with remarks including, “I like a man who can take substantive actions as needed to support growth,” and “How hard is your money?”.

Naturally, I became flustered, which led to me saying some uncharacteristically aggressive things in my speech.

http://www.newsgroper.com/ben-bernanke/2008/01/11/women-housing-finance-baby/
__________________


Oh, hell, we, many americans, will see you in hell, B.S. Bernanke, the master.

oops, you don't believe in hell.

Remember, obviously, many thinks that you can not handle our economy.

They have their staff economists feed the New York Times’ Louis Uchitelle a story headlined “For Bernanke, a Question of Toughness” — questioning if I have the balls for the job.


Bernanke let Inflation Speculators go nuts with "Inflation Anticipation". He let inflation anticipation sky high by suggesting interest rate cut, but does not deliver.

AUY

AUY was recommended, per a gal ( I think), before Cramer said it today. I think that "Inflation Anticipation" is high because Bernanke does not deliver what he said what he will do, such as he suggests and hints that he will cut interest rates, but he doesn't. In his speech, he said a lot of financing transaction lingo such as adding liquidity into market other than cutting interest rate. Obviously that is resulting in the worse situation as we can see that inflation anticipation is rising at the same time, financial markets are suffering, the first 8 days in New Year in 17 years.

Market Commentary - Thursday

With good economic news, markets have rallied today, DOW closed at 12853.09, SPX 1420.33, Qs 47.99, and Nasdaq 2446.80 which are the intraday resistances after the two day rally.

Markets reversed from the pivotal supports and the reversal volumes were quite good.

Even after the two day rally, intraday is not quite overbought because we had volatile swings today.

Markets have unfilled gaps, and will be volatile with earning news.

Live chart links for major markets

We need to see good consolidation without breaking the supports which noted yesterday.

~~~

I noted that we saw the worst first week of New Year performance since 1937 and now we have, "Bears Exceed Bulls by Most in 17 Years, Investor Poll Says" The bearish sentiment is extremely high which is often contrarian indicator. Seeing the extreme bearish sentiment is understandable as we are seeing subprime melt down.

So far, Bernanke has shown good management of the financial market as we see relatively stable market than we could have faced. With his brilliance, markets have survived even though we have a lot of slicing and dicing going on with individual stocks as I noted since Oct 2007, especially, with noting weak breadth.

Bernanke didn't lower interest rate because of high inflation speculation with Gold as we can see that USD is trading lower causing higher oil price. Oil price priced in geopolitical risk premium as well. I noted that markets are trading like schizophrenic because the market sentiment can change so quickly with price volatility.

For this reason, I noted that it would be better to be cautious in 2008. As Bernanke noted today, we could see the Fed making necessary moves to help market condition.

Market Summary

A Countrywide rescue cheers Wall St.

The Dow jumps 118 on news that Bank of America may take over troubled Countrywide Financial. Fed boss Bernanke vows 'substantive' action to help the economy. Delta Air Lines seeks a merger partner. Wal-Mart was a rare winner on holiday sales.
Stocks jumped today on the possibility that Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) will acquire Countrywide Financial (CFC, news, msgs), the nation's largest mortgage lender and one of the most troubled players in the subprime-mortgage crisis.

The second big rally in as many days also continued on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's promise that the central bank stands ready to move aggressively to help stave off a recession.

Bernanke and Market Reaction

Markets were swinging back and forth in DOW 300 points with low volatility today with nice volume actions during the last few days.

Bernanke: Fed Ready to Cut Rates to Prevent Recession

Speech:

Financial Markets, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy

Big caps were underperforming; hence, Qs; however, AMD traded up +7% which it traded down from 40 +. AMD didn't post a profit during the last couple of months. This could be January effect in January.

But I think that the winner stocks will be performing well during this earning reporting period than the ones which were reporting badly.



What’s the pain in my ass? Oh, it’s just Wall Street “economists”
By Ben Bernanke
1/10/08 12:35 PM EST | New York

Wall Street banks have a peculiar way of conducting their public relations. What do they do to get on my good graces (so that I’ll cut interest rates more drastically to bail them out of their mess)? They have their staff economists feed the New York Times’ Louis Uchitelle a story headlined “For Bernanke, a Question of Toughness” — questioning if I have the balls for the job.

Now, I say “economists” only to humor the Times. The folks quoted in that article, such as “chief domestic economist” for Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius and “senior economist” at JPMorgan Chase James Glassman, are nothing but glorified PR flacks. You can’t even find a bio for Jan Hatzius if you Google him, but a Google search will turn up his donations to a Goldman PAC. Call your spokesman an “economist” though, despite their break with the academy and their long list of conflicts of interest, and they become a reliable source.

Would a reporter lead an article about setting tariff rates by quoting a General Motors “trade expert”?

Being an economist is like being a consultant, philosopher or (dare I say it) a journalist. Anyone can call themselves one.

Is that tough enough for you, Louis Uchitelle?

Bernanke Speech at 1 pm and schizophrenic market

With new signs that the US economy is heading for recession, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to signal the central bank's intentions on interest rates in a speech later today.

Bernanke, known for a higher degree of transparency than his predecessors, has shown a recent tendency to let Wall Street know when the Fed sees significant changes in economic conditions, which may warrant Fed policy moves. The Fed next meets in late January, where it is widely expected to cut rates further.

"Bernanke’s going to have to say something, if there’s been a material change in the economy,” says Christopher Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ.

Bernanke is scheduled to discuss the economy and the financial markets at a 1 p.m. ET speech in Washington, sponsored by Women in Housing and the Exchequer Club. He will also take questions. CNBC.com will carry the complete session live.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22589686

~~~

Market is schizophrenic as it changes its bias and mood in a few hours. With a better Eco news and 'AA" good earning news, market is still bloody.

Bernanke Speech and DOW p/c ratio

Bernanke Speech at 1 pm tomorrow:

DOW p/c ratio is very negative and looks like expecting burning hell ? That is not looking good. Maybe Bernanke will say something horrible to market.

I think of this,
http://beautifulbible.blogspot.com/2008/01/5.html

Like this, so anything can happen.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25857126

Let's hope that market reacts positive.
Good luck

Close Encounters of the Third Kind

Market Commentary - Wednesday Market Reversal

Qs closed at 47.92 after reversing at 46.46 which is 61% of Mar2007 and about 40% of Jun-Jul2006 rally. It is 15% correction from 10/31/07 high. Also, there are other technical analysis that I do showing the support.

As shown on the weekly chart, it is weekly uptrend line support.

I have noted that I was looking for a reversal to trade up for the next few months after a sharp correction which is one of the worst first week of new year performance since 1937. Also after the INTC correction, I noted that much of bad earning news is priced in as we can see on INTC chart, it has fallen off from cliff as if the company reported bad earning news. This is different from the last earning report season when market priced in good news. Now I think that market has priced in bad news, so any good earning reports will take markets higher.

SPX closed at 1409.13 after reversing at 1378.07. As noted earlier closing above 1400 is a good sign of reversal with the price formation ending {4} of {5}.

DOW closed at 12735.31 after reversing at 12501.76 which is LT TL support from Oct 2002 as well as the Aug 2007 low support. My other technical analysis shows the supports at the reversal points today.

Today's market action is a good sign of market reversal; therefore, I think that markets have bottomed for the next few months. Will look for a confirmation.

Bernanke will speak at 1 pm tomorrow.

Hopefully he will not say something will scare market even though DOW p/c ratio is negative.




This is an interesting picture reminding me of the 1977 movie, "Close Encounters of the Third Kind". I rarely watch movie twice, but I have watched the movie twice at that time. There was something about the movie which I liked.

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/01/close-encounters-of-third-kind.html

COT update & Market looks like hell

COT: it is showing No interest in the market as market can whipsaw in a few min to rob the most. Only small speculators are long in the market. No wonder, markets are pulling back like evil possessed.

Many markets look like hell as the big money driving the world like hell long or short.

Countrywide Financial denied market speculation it might seek bankruptcy protection, but its shareshttp://www.cnbc.com/id/22559677

[CFC 5.47 -2.17 (-28.4%) ] suffered their biggest decline since the 1987 stock market crash on growing concern the largest U.S. mortgage lender's problems will deepen.

____________

Just take a look at this crazy armageddon market up and down.

They, the big market pushers, created a rumor sending the stock 28% down. They conspire to take markets up or down to make big money including all bubbles and busts.

Looks like Tobias, the evil bloody market

After the Paulson appearance, greedy shorters are going nuts with markets. The evil men talking about flying fish... go figure. After putting millions into serious debt with ARM, now, the evil doers are frying stock market. http://www.cnbc.com/id/22555235

This market is absolutely deceitful. It is not like just a few years ago, and of course, not many years ago. At least, during 1999-2000, many stocks went up and during 2000-2002, we knew that markets were pulling back; now, they are killing up or down at the same time. This is absolutely deceitful market until now since at least now people know what is going on with market. Many stocks are in strong downtrend before the recent sell-off



$BKX : re CFC rumor, evil armageddon made a rumor on CFC and tanked the stock off 26.27%

With this astronomical money which the evil money makers scooping up all the money from long or short, around the world, what are they going to do with it? They can take it when they die... go to hell.

BKX at 80.59

Cramer's remark on Bernanke and Bernanke vs Paulson

Re Cramer's remark on Bernanke. I think that it is Paulson, the wolf (?), as his appearance often makes markets to jitter. Bernanke's words are much better than Paulson, e.g. on USD, even though we could think that they are all hired by big money to do what they told to do.

Paulson Interview: Fixing the Homefront

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=620797594

~~~
Fed Will Take Us to Recession
Posted By:Tom Brennan
Unemployment’s at a two-year high, and still the Federal Reserve is worried about inflation. No wonder the Dow dropped 257 points on Friday.
It’s not like we couldn’t see this coming, though, Cramer said. Well, he did anyway. But Bernanke and gang played it conservative, and here we are.
“I almost have to believe this Federal Reserve wanted to write a dissertation on a recession that it created itself,” Cramer told viewers, alluding to the central bank’s academic predilections. “Well, summa cum laude to Ben Bernanke.”
And that talk of injecting liquidity into the markets: “joke, joke, joke – all of it,” Cramer said. “These bums simply don’t know how it works. They've never traded.”
The Fed’s “incrementalism” has Cramer thinking “they’re going to take us into a recession right around election time.”
The only bright spot the Mad Money host sees is the extremely negative sentiment among hedge funds, causing low valuations in infrastructure, oil, agriculture, defense and gold – and that’s it.
So now Wall Street’s in recession mode, and Homegamers should be, too, Cramer said. This is the time when Pepsico
Remember the rule: Supermarket and drugstore stocks work in a downturn.- cnbc
~~~

Paulson Speech: January 7, 2008
HP-757

Remarks by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.
on Housing and Capital Markets
before the New York Society of Securities Analysts

New York City, NY-- Good afternoon. I will provide an update on the U.S. housing and capital markets and, at the beginning of this new year, an outlook for the U.S. economy.

As I have said for some time, the housing and credit disruptions have slowed our economic growth, and the housing downturn remains the greatest risk to our economy. Yet, the U.S. economy remains diverse and resilient, even as it works through these current challenges.

Market Commentary - Monday

Markets closed above the weekly supports with hammer formations, as noted earlier, SPX 1400 + and Qs 47.43 supports are held. Nasdaq closed at 2499.46 making me wondering about whether it could not put up 0.54 to close above 2500. DOW also bounced off from the Nov 2007 low support.

However, AAPL and other big cap stocks price formations are not so encouraging, so need to see. Obviously many are bearish on the market. The headline, "The financial sector is expected to weigh on corporate earnings in the fourth quarter. But outside the sector, the news is upbeat", is stating that earnings will be fine, and will see.

There is a rumor which was going on for months that we could see a conflict with Iran and many newsletter writers were written on the subject, so I sensed, we could indeed see it?

With the volatility which we have seen today, markets are so far so good as we didn't see market crash as I think that Bernanke lived up to what he claims than Paulson did.

The HOD today was the resistances, so we need to see breaking above the resistances to hope to see prices trading to upside, in the mean time, markets are showing "hammers" with higher volumes showing a potential support at where market could trade up. We are now entering "earning report" month and it will see volatility.

$BKX to targeted 83

$BKX traded to targeted 83 as noted on 11/3. That is 61.80% of Oct 2002-Fec2007 rally.

It will likely bounce from here even though "C" price action suggests retracing to the Oct 2002 low and even though we do not see a bottom action on financial sector yet. Therefore, it is better to be cautious at the support at 83.

INTC, HPQ & Tech

It is mind-blowing to see INTC price actions during the last few days after a downgrade from BOA. It is like falling off from a cliff. Do you remember pics which I posted during the last week of Dec? When I am looking at INTC, it looks like a total flush, cleaning out.

It did react to earning news, I think that it was, in Jan 2006 similar as what we see now. It almost looks like a bad earning news is already priced in; even though there is no guarantee that it will not break the current support. The current level near at 22.50 +/- is meeting price objective breaking the 26.50 support.

I am seeing Cramer is recommending HPQ today on his "Stop Trading". I think that the earning report from HPQ would be good.

For AMD, it is a nightmare, bitter fall off from 40+ level and market is continuing to punish the company as it is trading near at 6 now.

For HPQ, it certainly traded strong; however, the recent sell-off is ugly like a fallen angel sent to hell. It certainly looks like it has put the top at 53 which will not be able to break above anytime soon. HPQ bounced off from 44.20 support today after trading 16% pull back range within a week.

INTC needs "TLC". Need to put some bandage on.

Cycle update

Cycle update: bull/bear, I know that I am swing back and forth between bull/bear since Oct 2007 in which you will find bull-bear sentiment swing back and forth. The emotional swing back and forth, like many of us, is because we have high volatility in financial market. What else is new right? Whether it is terrorist threat, War like mid 2006, or ARM melt news, we had high uncertainty financially and geopolitically.

With the uncertainly, we've had relatively stable financial market, Thanks to the Fed Bernanke!

Now back to "Cycle", I, at the moment, disagree with Bob's comment, of course, I have to agree with him, if we do not find support at the weekly supports which I noted, yesterday, that we have 9 mo cycle low due in Nov-Dec 2007 after the Mar 2007 low. On 12/23/2007, I commented that we are in late stage of 8 year cycle after 4 year cycle bottom during Jun-Jul 2007. I will elaborate on the LT cycle later, and ST, we are in rising 9mo cycle period.

The extreme negative sentiment is often "contrarian sentiment" as it has been during the last few years and of course we have, as always, traders who are saying, "This time is different". However, considering surrounding circumstances, I will give a good probability that market will likely find supports at this level after the sharp sell-off during the last week after the recent decline started on 10/11/07. The point 3) is also often a contrarian indicator and SPX is showing positive divergence.

Successful support will carry markets to upside for the next few months. Breaking the current weekly supports, e.g. SPX 1400, signals of course bearish market.

Will see how the day ends, but so far market action is showing a support at SPX 1400 + and Qs 47.43 weekly S.

After the shock sell on Friday - Monday Morning - Markets are at weekly supports

Today, we have President Bush will talk about the economy mid-afternoon Monday, and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will speak at 2 p.m. on the economy and the capital markets in New York.




Markets are at LT support as shown on the EW chart after selling off Dow 4.23 percent, S&P 500 4.52 percent, and Nasdaq 6.35 percent for the week after 98 point drop Friday.

Markets closed at weekly supports. Bulls last chance.
Qs closed near at weekly support 48 - 48.20 and LT TL S and SPX 1410 +/- weekly TL S.

Bulls last defense at weekly supports. This is for Bulls' last support level.

Posted the bearish count on 12/23/07 as shown on the link.

As noted I am flexible during 2008.

Good luck


~~~

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_...xt2find=diamond
Comment on Diamond formation
Date:12/23/2007 4:30:46 PM
Post #of 5290

SPX daily in a Diamond formation: SPX 1485 is a pivotal resistance within a diamond formation after a strong trend up since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom which is the 4yr/8yr cycle bottoms as noted on previous posts.

Breaking above 1485/1500, SPX will retrace to 1575 +/-; conversely, breaking below the lower Diamond TL support, it will retrace to the Jun-Jul 2006 TL support targeting 1250 +/-.

re Bradley turn dates

A couple of years ago, I posted my thought on a correlation between the Bradley turn dates and actual market turns. The accuracy of turns was about 60% even though I did keep the comparative charts which I worked on. As for 12/22 dates, it was in the middle of the week high and low; so, it is uncertainly as to directional confirmation. As noted on the earlier posts, markets are at major supports on weekly.

re: Fed policy views split due to uncertainty: Kohn

Big evil bad bears are now screaming, "IT'S MY WORLD, MY WORLD", as we can see its power on Friday. Don't think that the big sell-off is not initiated by the fed/big bank as I think that the Fed is also the PPT both from long and short sides unless it is proven otherwise that my understanding is incorrect.

This is an example of big-bad-evil-greedy-bears exerting its evil power: INTC 20% off wiping out 6mos in 3-days. Do we have any more to say?

We have the Fed members are playing with words, but their bites are bigger than their words as we have seen that they exerted their quick and fast money making scheme like on Friday from short side.

Now, the fake Bernanke writing, as the website noted, shows that the fake Bernanke has the power to move the markets and I also think so. Of course, not for your own benefit, but theirs. (note: the comments on this post are referring to the last few posts.)

~~~

Fed policy views split due to uncertainty: Kohn

Are One and the same? If so, we are in deep trouble.

Market timers and the bull/bear territories

I sent an email to Mark Hulbert when he published the best market timers article that I do not agree with the top ten timers' forecast for 2008 for being bullish.

Mark, that's what Jesus said, The first shall be last; however, you are jumping into a conclusion as if we are in Dec 2008. The game is not over yet. I sent you an email that I am not so bullish in 2008 when you published a commentary on "the best top 10 market timers are bullish" as I noted that I need to see better market breadth to be bullish. Since then, I expressed my reasons for being bearish since Oct 2007 top with a note of being flexible during 2008.

However, I am not a bear who is a part of a big-bad-perma-bear-dark-side-group.

Recently, I noted Markets are showing "Diamond" formations on SPX and DOW; and after the Friday action, big bad bears are having a life-time party saying, "It's their world".

So, Mark, now, bears are screaming that they won, WON the 2008 game. Again, I am not a bull here; but, am making a comment that you are suggesting that all big bank brokerage firms are wrong. Remember, with big cap actions, it is not so difficult to take market to SPX 1600-1700 which I posted technical analysis several months ago with long term view charts.

Now, big bad bears are saying, "Diamond" break, excuse me, I posted the technical analysis on the diamond formation with LT analysis on 12/23. Now, entire bears are jumping on "It's my world, the big evil bear slaughter camp", like what we have seen on Friday.

The 12/23/07 market analysis is one way, "not" the way of market will be unfolding, so the 2008 game is not finished yet.

Markets are still at LT TL support which I will post charts with comments when I get a chance later; however, breaking the lower TL support is not a good sign; unless of course, the almighty Fed can support the market! Instead of playing the big evil bad bears like what we have seen on Friday.

Commentary: 2007's best-performing newsletter portfolio poor bet for 2008

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Jan. 4, 2008

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The top-performing portfolio last year, among the more than 500 that are recommended by the investment newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, gained 109.7%.

like the hedge fund Tobias, evil greed is shown during short markets like today

Why I have a beard by Ben Bernanke & Absolute evil greedy short day

Why I have a beard By Ben Bernanke All of the late night talk show hosts are being portrayed a rebel heroes for sporting beards in support of striking writers. This has led several central bankers from other countries to e-mail me asking why I have a beard (except for the Arab bankers, who assumed it a sign of good judgment).

I originally grew my beard to distinguish myself from Alan Greenspan, who once confided in me that he’s physically incapable of growing a beard. Now I realize it’s a sign that just as the writers have the power to control the fate of a character in a TV drama, I have the power to guide this nation’s economy to growth and prosperity.

Please note that none of the other Fed Board members have a beard, or even a mustache or goatee. Donald L. Kohn once tried growing a beard, but I made him shave it off in the same style as Czar Peter the Great. While it’s prudent to have one beard in the Fed, two’s a crowd.

1/4/08 5:33 PM EST | Washington DC
http://www.newsgroper.com/ben-bernanke/2008/01/04/beard/#more-3565
read the top left corner: "These Blogs are not real"

A slosh report and PPT

I have seen a slosh report link which traders are using since several weeks ago as I also posted the link on my site and used ; however, the slosh report numbers are changing and lagging.

Need to check the numbers on the slosh report sine I have noticed that the numbers are changing.

http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx

Also note that the Fed-PPT and major banks will utilize short and long even though there is a misconception that PPT is doing only hyping up markets; therefore, PPT is a fooling title.


Sloshing
12/31/2007 23.200 17.500 2.500 15.000 46.500 42.725 3.888 15.494 27.118 0.000
1/1/2008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 46.500 41.550 3.888 15.494 27.118 0.000
1/2/2008 27.150 14.250 4.000 10.250 56.750 41.450 6.192 18.855 31.703 0.000
1/3/2008 101.500 10.500 29.250 -18.750 38.000 41.850 9.750 11.146 17.104 0.000
1/4/2008 124.800 12.250 16.000 -3.750 34.250 41.400 12.957 8.139 13.154 0.000

Bloody evil greed shorting day

The day ends with absolutely evil bloody greed shorting day below SPX 1425, closing at SPX 1411.63.

Market behaving like on drug, Tobias behavior

VIX/VXN: With high volatility, markets are acting like on drugs, Tobias, mad boy market actions.

SPX 1425 +/- support if mad boy market has sober mind instead of on drugs.


CPC/CPCe-i just hit multi-year high level.


SPX 1425 +/- is an important support as noted during the last week.


As a side note, since BOA downgraded INTC 3 days ago, it is down 20% +/-. BOA is a part of "PPT". They go short and long - maxi greed.

Wiping out 6mo in 3 days

Smack down with excuses of Eco #

Gold hypers screaming sell stocks and buy gold is working - absolutely crazy.

Or is it this? It must be curse Obama news bloody market.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22495256

Obama, Huckabee Win First 2008 US Vote
Topics:White House | Congress | Politics & Government
By Reuters | 04 Jan 2008 | 01:14 AM ET
Font size:

Barack Obama took a big step on Thursday toward becoming the first black U.S. president as his campaign for change caught fire in Iowa and swept him past Hillary Clinton in the opening Democratic nominating contest.

Qs perfect symmetrical formation & SPY/DIA

Qs perfect triangle formation with a support at the bottom retesting the yesterday low, 50.13 with a higher low at 50.15.

60m macd is about to turn positive.


SPY and DIA showing higher low formation. The SPY and DIA charts are showing "Option Expiration Percent Movement" Supports and Resistances based on the OE close price. The explanation on OEPM is on my website.