Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Big oxymoronic beaspoke bandwagon

Financials rallied yesterday, so it is obvious. Sooner or later, a trend reverses. With reports such as this, many are following ill advice to create more doom and gloom, vice versa -- creating hype -- big hype. Reports like this is like in dope brain thinking -- just riding bandwagons.



Big loser beaspoke: A Loser's Rally

Even though the S&P 500 rallied 4% today, the average stock in the index was up 5.42%, which means the bigger companies in the index underperformed the smaller ones. We also broke the index into deciles (50 stocks in each decile) based on year to date stock performance through yesterday's close to see how prior performance this year impacted today's moves. As expected, the 50 stocks that were down the most through yesterday were up an average of 13.16% today, while the 50 stocks that had held up the best so far this year were only up an average of 3.93%. As we've seen with most oversold rallies during this bear market, investors have been bidding up the losers, only to see them suffer once again when the rally teeters out. Until there is a significant trend change, profit-taking is a must for those buying beaten-down shares on days like today.


http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/02/a-losers-rally.html

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