Potential New DOWN Channel and VIX breakout attempt

New DOWN Channel? Markets bounced off from the intraday supports, SPX 780, DOW 7450, Nasdaq 1485, and Qs 29.60 with VIX/VXN closing below the triangle breakout after trading above the upper trend line resistance. However, VIX 30min shows a breakout.

VIX/VXN Breakout attempt
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With the market actions today, the 60min price actions are now showing oversold condition from which the markets bounced off, SPX 780. We have seen strong market price actions with an initial VIX/VXN breakout actions even though the volatility closed inside of the triangle formations. While market actions remain volatile reacting to the Economic news and earning news, so far, market actions are suggesting a potential -continuation of the downside momentum of the final downside momentum to SPX 555 +/-.

Intraday Supports: LOD
$COMPX 1484.98, DOW 7437.59, $INX 779.81
DIA 74.37
IWM 40.78
QID 48.64
QLD 25.71
QQQQ 29.62
SMH 18.37
SPY 77.96

The SPX 60min chart below suggests a potential fractal formation of the 2/9/2009 price actions which could be the wave 1 of wave 5 of Cycle A which could be also a long term consolidation triangle. SPX 750 is a good support area for the cyclical bullish case; however, markets trading to lower to retest the low at 666 is preferred.

Markets have formed a new down channel or resume the recent VST uptrend?

Considering all factors, it is likely that a retest of the low at least.

Daily market momentum is now turning down, however, we do not have a reversal confirmation for a ST top. 60min momentum is now turning up with negative divergences.



Fractal formation?



VIX/VXN Breakout attempt