Long Term SPX EW and BKX ~ update

Nov 22, 2008






$SPX EW and $BKX ~ SPX closing at 800.03 bouncing off from 741.02 which is APR 1997 support.

$BKX is trading at 36.91. On $BKX monthly chart, we have two broken formations – Channel and Megaphone RST.

Based on the formations, we could see $BKX retracing to 21 if it breaks 30 support. The worst scenario corresponding VLT SPX target is SPX 500 +/- 1995 breakout level – the worst case scenario into depression with the recent sharp pull back.

http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2008/11/spx-lt-monthly-twin-peak.html

A bad scenario is SPX finding a ST/IT support at 650 +/- which is the 1996 support level ending the IT wave 3 setting up for IT wave 4 bounce, then resume down trend to 500 +/-. A good scenario is that markets bounce off from the current level SPX 741.02, which is Apr 1997 support level, to SPX 1010 +/-. Then, resume the final target to 500-650. The best scenario is that markets reverse from the current level and trade up to near 1000; then retest the current level with higher-low LT wave 5. The projected time for the worst case scenario to SPX 500 +/- which is 1995 breakout support is in 2010 +/-, which noted in 2007 with cycle analysis charts, for the final low.

With a good bounce into and during 2009 could lead to higher low from 650-750 +/- which is 1996-1997 level support. With the recent volatility, we could have seen the IT Wave 3 low or very soon.

Market anticipation could be the best case scenario at given crisis if we indeed see a strong bounce in 2009 with strong bank/financial rally. We need to see a bottom confirmation from the current financial crisis and sharp sell-off.

The SPX 741.02 is APR 1997 support which could be ending IT wave 3 correction. A reversal from this level to SPX 1000 +/- is Wave 4 target. We need to see a confirmation for the scenario.