Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Year-End Rally


Markets rallied into close trading above the intraday resistances which noted earlier. While we have so much bad news and uncertainty, many are sitting on cash, 3-4 trillions, and wondering whether markets are going to trade lower or to rally 30% from the recent low. 30% rally is from the lower support of the recent trading range. Breaking above the recent trading range will provide the breakout to upside rally of 20% rally to targets which noted earlier.

>>> For quick rally scenario in early Jan 2009, Markets were trading in a tight range for 4-5 weeks. New year rally is helpful breaking above Qs 31, SPX 920, DOW 9000, and NAS 1600 will propel markets to Qs 35 +/-, SPX 1100 +/-, DOW 9000 +/-, and NAS 2000 +/-, respectively. Those targets are based on a strong rally at the beginning of the year going into Obama 1/20 Inauguration which is better scenario than markets rallying after the Inauguration. <<<

We have less certainty going into New Year, but, some are willing to take risk as Bob Dolls noted. Will see how markets will trade, but we could see quick rally to aforementioned targets with break out of the recent trading range as a confirmation.
Good luck

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