Sunday, September 20, 2009

FOMC Preview: The End of Free Money Coming Soon

The FOMC is expected to give us a decision on interest rates this Wednesday, September 23 around 2:15 PM EST. One tool we prefer to use for determining the direction of Fed Funds is long standing 30-Day Fed Fund Futures contracts traded on the CME. We are seeing a mix of several events culminating here over the question of whether the target Fed Funds should be at this 0.00% to 0.25% or near-0% as it has been now that things are getting less-bad and even getting better. The notion here is that the decision announcement for the Fed Funds target will remain as it has. And contrary to all of the other noise, this might not be the last FOMC rating without a formal exit from the Federal Reserve from its free money policy. But there is also the notion that rates could get higher and faster than what the Fed Funds Futures are predicting.

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