Markets already rallied 30-40% from the bottom. I will not take fresh long position at here. It is insane to bite the long bait after 30-40% major markets have pumped up based on massive debt spending.
Without a meaningful correction, it is crazy to take long term investment at here even though we have seen market hypers after markets have pumped up 30-40%. Even though markets are still trading in the price channels, markets could quickly sell off based on some manipulated news. Even with sudden "Taking Profit" excuse. Markets are insane and very manipulative, hence, it could slash quickly when no more sideline cash is coming in.
Of course, technically, SPX 900/1000 is very doable with crazy printing machine which everyone HATES that the Gov/Bernanke/Geithner are doing it.
swine blackrock ~ Goldman Sachs Bond, Stock Sales Signal No Stress Test Surprises
Market manipulation -- unconscionable degeneration of greed and power. OT: I just got a text message that reads:
Back in the day it was said a black man would become President when pigs fly.
100 days into Obama's Presidency... swine flu. http://tinyurl.com/22eap2 ___________________________________________________________ Obviously using swine flu to manipulate markets: as usual, using all kinds of manipulation. WHO Raises Flu Threat Level; Mexicans Stay Home | 30 Apr 2009 | 12:49 AM ET
The World Health Organization said the world is at the brink of a pandemic, raising its threat level as the swine flu virus spread and killed the first person outside of Mexico, a toddler in Texas.
"Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world," WHO Director General Margaret Chan told a news conference in Geneva as she raised the official alert level to phase 5, the last step before a pandemic.
Reality: Real economy has never really mattered to the big political drama suckers using bubble and crash to leech mass wealth. Remember the Fed is a private entity profiting from mass using governments.
Markets will likely do the same FED day drama -- hyped up markets as premarkets are trading up and consolidate until the Fed announcement, then whipsaw-bang around markets. Typical Fed day manipulation. It is better to snooze than to be scammed by the high speed manipulation with foolish higher risk. Most of market participants are completely turned off prior to the announcement even though we are not expecting much. Just another market drama for manipulation.
The reality on the Fed day: Markets will likely do the same FED day drama -- hyped up markets as premarkets are trading up and consolidate until the Fed announcement, then whipsaw-bang around markets. Typical Fed day manipulation. It is better to snooze than to be scammed by the high speed manipulation with foolish higher risk. Most of market participants are completely turned off prior to the announcement even though we are not expecting much from the Fed at this point with the zero interest rate. Market speculation and hype going into the Fed day is just another market drama for market manipulation.
All we have is continued market hype with printed money without genuine economic growth except spending trillions of debt into inefficient government operations even though it is nice to do make-over infrastructure of old roads, schools, and energy grids.
As shown on the daily charts, we are seeing severe negative divergences for weeks as markets are continued pushing up. Major markets have stayed in a tight trading range as the Fed/the Gov/G20 continue to flood markets with printed money to inflate the markets. I noted before, the mega funds are already in the markets since the March 6, SPX 666 bottom and are waiting for small funds to enter the markets. Those who are sitting on cash since the 2007-2008 tops would be tempted to enter the markets thinking that US Economy is recovering even though market bounces which we have seen since March 6 is superficial as we don't have real job growth. While financial markets often lead Economy, we are living in different era than decades ago as shown on the chart below that the economic growth since 2000 was superficial as US Economic growth is based on Americans spending over their real income.
Considering the job loss and overspending, the real US economy obviously is a complete mess and markets are continuing to hype to fool many who have not facing the reality of the financial scam as we can see through the reality of US economy and the health of US with massive deficit and demolished wealth for many.
Santander, Siemens Push Euro Stocks Up Topics:Economy (Global) | Mergers & Acquisitions | Earnings | Stock Market | Europe | Market Outlook By: Reuters | 29 Apr 2009 | 05:16 AM ET Text Size
European stocks gained ground in early trade on Wednesday, reversing some of the previous session's losses, as results from a number of bellwethers such as Siemens and Santander pleased investors.
Shares of Siemens surged 3.6 percent after reporting strong first-quarter figures, with investors shrugging off a widely anticipated move by the German electronics and engineering conglomerate to trim its outlook.
Asian Markets Recover as Investors Look Past Flu | 28 Apr 2009 | 08:31 PM ET
Asia stocks and the Australian dollar bounced back on Wednesday from a two-day slide, with investors taking heart from data showing the U.S. economy slowly healing, and betting the swine flu outbreak will be contained.
The yen slid against higher-yielding currencies on improving risk appetite after data showing U.S. consumer confidence posting its biggest monthly jump in three years and the pace of home price declines slowing from a record pace.
The signs of gradual recovery in the struggling U.S. economy helped ease some of the worries about the impact of the swine flu, as well as reports that top U.S. banks will need to raise more capital after the government stress tests.
Markets are holding up in consolidation mode stayed in narrow range going into the Fed day tomorrow. Markets have advanced its tactics so much changed just a few years ago. With the Fed announcement and the market reaction based on the interpretation and speculation is a wild card with the consideration which I noted below. Let's see how market reacts tomorrow after the Fed announcement, but most of traders are probably exploding inside by the market actions -- patience surely is needed to remain sane.
Markets closed near at pivots as noted below, and the market actions are quite depressing to say the least for those who are looking for a correction while for those parked money in the markets already have gone to beach and for vacation knowing the Fed and G20 are guaranteeing the market safety -- of course, pun is intended, but that is, so far, the case.
Markets are trading at the VST lower supports in premarket. With the 2-day Fed day, we could see an intraday volatility even though pre-Fed day going into the Announcement at 2pm is relatively quite.
SPY is trading at 84.91 (SPX 845 +/-) in premarket.
As alerted at 4/27/2009 3:13:26 PM, markets formed double top, after fading the morning GAP making the HOD at SPX 868.83, DOW 8122.56, and Nasdaq 1700.53, then retested the top and swing to near the LOD.
No sell in May and go away? Also, noted the series of diamond formations for the last 5-6 weeks in consolidation mode in a price channel after initial thrust from the SPX 666 low. Evidently, much waited lower market targets will not be see anytime soon at this rate
Even though markets are continuing to show negative divergences, markets are still trading in the recent up trend.
Shall we see a confirmation of a meaning market correction? In this volatile markets, VST traders should be careful thinking that markets will break to the downside as markets are compressing to make a next move. Anticipating a pull back at this point is an easy expectation, but markets can surprise many, therefore, need to be cautious.
Market Formations: Most of traders are looking at the same formation: Inverse H&S As shown on the chart as it is quite obvious formation at this point. As noted, markets were retracing only Fib 23% since the March rally Started, and we are still seeing the similar market actions as we have Seen during the last several weeks. The obvious expectation at this point is inverse H&S, while H&S formation is quite desirable and hoping for. Waiting for a directional confirmation is quite obvious at this point. We can only hope for, PLEASE SELL and GO AWAY for summer.
Major Markets in diamond/triangle formations SPX is showing a diamond formation as shown below. Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 845-870 +/-.
SPX is showing a diamond formation as shown below. Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 85 - 87 +/-.
DOW is showing a diamond formation as shown below. Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 7800 - 8100 +/-.
Nasdaq rallied along price channel for several weeks
1650 - 1750 +/-. pivots
$BKX trading in symmetrical triangle/diamond formations 30-36 +/- pivots
As alerted at 4/27/2009 3:13:26 PM, markets formed double top, after fading the morning GAP making the HOD at SPX 868.83, DOW 8122.56, and Nasdaq 1700.53, then retested the top and swing to near the LOD.
No sell in May and go away? Also, noted the series of diamond formations for the last 5-6 weeks in consolidation mode in a price channel after initial thrust from the SPX 666 low. Evidently, much waited lower market targets will not be see anytime soon at this rate
Even though markets are continuing to show negative divergences, markets are still trading in the recent up trend.
Shall we see a confirmation of a meaning market correction? In this volatile markets, VST traders should be careful thinking that markets will break to the downside as markets are compressing to make a next move. Anticipating a pull back at this point is an easy expectation, but markets can surprise many, therefore, need to be cautious. Market Formations: Most of traders are looking at the same formation: Inverse H&S As shown on the chart as it is quite obvious formation at this point. As noted, markets were retracing only Fib 23% since the March rally Started, and we are still seeing the similar market actions as we have Seen during the last several weeks. The obvious expectation at this point is inverse H&S, while H&S formation is quite desirable and hoping for. Waiting for a directional confirmation is quite obvious at this point. We can only hope for, PLEASE SELL and GO AWAY for summer.
Major Markets in diamond/triangle formations SPX is showing a diamond formation as shown below. Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 845-870 +/-. SPX is showing a diamond formation as shown below. Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 85 - 87 +/-.
DOW is showing a diamond formation as shown below. Also forming a symmetrical triangle with a window of 7800 - 8100 +/-.
Nasdaq rallied along price channel for several weeks
1650 - 1750 +/-. pivots
$BKX trading in symmetrical triangle/diamond formations 30-36 +/- pivots
Monday, April 27, 2009 10:50:03 AM Market swine pig flew
Let's see where markets close. Markets are still buying dips which is not a good sign with continued negative divergences in price and breadth momentum.
An outbreak of swine flu dampened tentative hopes for the global economy, sending markets lower on Monday and analysts fear a possible pandemic could force countries further into recession.
Global health officials mobilized to combat a deadly strain of flu. Obama declared a public-health emergency, with 20 cases confirmed in the U.S., and said there are likely to be more.
Nasdaq target 1700 is met as alerted It formed RST same as Qs.
GOLD reversal 867 as alerted on 4/17 and now met target at 925. Will update
SPY hanging man at 88/87 targets met at triple resistances of double top, backtests of down trendline and up trendline. While rising wedge is broken to downside price channel is still in tact. Based on all other technical readings, reversal correction area.
QQQQ dual Resistance with RST and TL backtest at 34 as alerted.
Even though reversal/pull back is expected, it didn't happen and now too many traders are screaming for reversal now with obvious TA readings of overbought and neg D. However, still look for a reversal- correction.
Market pump based on illusive economic growth spending debt. FAS 8.20 R and FAZ 8.50 S pivots Markets R $COMPX 1675.29 $INDU 8067.85 $INX 863.49 SPY 86.49 QQQQ 33.43
The Conrad's commentary on the reality of our economy based on various studies are informative as shown below. My compliments to the Conrad's effort and expertise.
It’s time to call the global crisis what it is: the worst financial collapse since 1929. That’s no surprise to our readers, who have been amply warned over the last five years. But now even government officials, after trying to ignore the facts on the ground for the last couple of years, are admitting the truth of the matter.
Now that it’s here, we turn our attention to trying to discern, “How bad can it get?” and “How long can it last?”
While such questions can never be answered with anything approaching absolute certainty, there are methods that can be used to assess what may lurk over the horizon. With that goal in mind, this article focuses on – and then expands upon – the recent work of two economists who painstakingly analyzed a substantial number of previous banking and currency crises in an attempt to derive potentially useful lessons. I have then taken their data and applied them to the current circumstances to see where we are, relative to those other experiences.
The Data
The data are from a study called “The Aftermath of Financial Crises” by Carmen M. Reinhart of University of Maryland and Kenneth S. Rogoff of Harvard University. In their study, the authors summarize the results of a broad sampling of banking crises, with between 13 to 22 crises analyzed for each of the variables.
The Reinhart/Rogoff study is based, in turn, on data extracted from an even more comprehensive study of events in 66 countries, titled “This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” by the same authors.
I’ve summarized the findings from the latest study in the table below:
The economic measures in the left column show how far the U.S. situation has deteriorated so far. The next columns show the average historical deterioration and the worst case of the crisis analyzed.
I then applied these data to calculate the levels that the U.S. could reach if it followed the path of the historical examples. The projected level is based on the measure analyzed, either from the peak prior to the downturn (e.g., the S&P 500) or from the bottom prior to the downturn (e.g., the lows in unemployment). Thus, as you can see in the table here, the S&P 500 has already dropped from its October 2007 peak of 1565 down to 766. If this crisis were to end up being only “average,” then it would drop to 690.
If, however, the worst case of a 90% drop were to occur, as it did in Iceland last year, then the S&P 500 would trade down to the shocking level of 157. For further reference, if the current crisis were to cause the stock market to fall as sharply as in the Great Depression, the S&P would touch 469.
Duration of Crisis
As you can see in the summary table below, it took 3.4 years, on average, for the stock market to fall from the peak to the bottom. In the worst case, it took five years. With the recent peak in the S&P 500 occurring in October 2007 – just one and a half years ago – the crisis is likely to have some time to go before reaching even an average duration. More specifically, if this crisis turns out to be just “average,” we would not expect to see the low before the first quarter of 2011.
Crisis Horizon: Some Conclusions
The global economic situation continues to deteriorate on all fronts (see charts below).
Housing prices are down 28% from their bubble peak in 2006 but still have a ways down to go to get back to their pre-bubble levels. Even an average downturn will mean that housing remains a problem for several more years. Unless, of course, the government steps in to stave off those resets… a “solution” that carries with it a separate set of problems, making things worse. We continue to expect very serious problems in the commercial real estate sector.
The stock market is approaching a 50% decline, the average of what has been observed in past crises. Further slowing in U.S. corporate activities and profits means additional increases in unemployment, establishing a negative feedback loop that pushes corporate profits – and stock prices – even lower.
The only growth trend at this point is in government bailouts, which are in high gear, indicating we’ll experience the serious growth of outstanding debt seen in other crises. The elevated levels of government borrowing required to fund that spending are absorbing all available credit from foreigners, directly competing with business in need of the new financing that will be required to expand the economy. The combination of declining business activity, coupled with declining levels of household income, will result in declining tax revenues, increasing the budget deficit beyond the size of the new bailout programs. State and municipal governments across the nation are already being confronted with large shortfalls in their budgets, shortfalls that will only widen as the crisis worsens.
The combined business slowing and jobs contraction assure that the GDP will decline. Components of GDP having to do with necessities like food and shelter will continue to bump along regardless of the economic conditions, but the lack of growth in GDP could extend for years as it did in Japan and as it did after the 1929 stock crash.
Inflation/Deflation
Given that we are currently in a deflationary phase, it is easy to dismiss the case for inflation – and many do. We think that is a mistake. Even a summary tabulation of the unprecedented increases in government debt at this relatively early stage in the crisis make a compelling case for higher inflation, if for no other reason than that it shows clear intent on the part of the government to spend “whatever it takes” to offset the deflationary forces now stalking the land.
The research paints a dismal story of years of economic stagnation. In our view, the trend is now firmly established for dollar debasement, a debasement that will eventually overwhelm the deflationary pressures from collapsing asset values. Therefore, don’t listen to the happy faces on CNBC spouting off, for the umpteenth time since this crisis began, that now is the time to jump back in and buy stocks. It isn’t.
Be extremely skeptical when you hear some pundit pronouncing that this piece of short-term good news or another is an “all clear” signal. Until we start seeing a systematic improvement in the economic fundamentals – for example, an upward movement in consumer confidence – the only signal the economy will be hearing is that of a runaway train coming straight at it.
Regards, Bud Conrad
April 23, 2009
Bud Conrad
Bud Conrad holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree from Yale and an MBA from Harvard. He has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. Currently, he serves as a local board member of the National Association of Business Economics and teaches graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. Bud Conrad is also a regular lecturer for American Association of Individual Investors. In addition he produces original analysis for Casey Research.
With the last hour rally going into close, markets closed near at the highs of the day.
$INX 851.92 $INDU 7957.06 $COMPX 1652.21
The market reversal which I alerted near at 11:30 am which were the LOD.
$INX 835.45 $INDU 7804.21 $COMPX 1625.88
Markets tagged HOD near closing.
$INX 852.87 $INDU 7979.44 $COMPX 1654.85
With the MSFT and AMZN earning report news, it is evident that markets can be taken either direction at will as entire financial markets can be manipulated with the Fed along with the trillion hedge funds which bankrupted millions of Americans.
No price technical damage is done to confirm a meaningful pull back even though we have signs of internal deterioration and several other technical and fundamental reasons for a pull back as I noted during the last couple of weeks.
With the AAPL news, premarkets are up. AAPL is trading at:
AAPL 128.14 6.63 5.46% 897,868
SPY/SPX formed a diamond/H&S/symtriangle formation at the price channel bouncing off from the lower support.
SPY 84.77 0.23 0.27% 6,885,962 Premarket
Pivots 84/83
small 2 SPY charts: http://trend-signals.com/ (I don't have the time to upload and to post on iHub which I have done since Jul 2004 and need to save my time - probably convert to newsletter.)
The Blair comment does not bode well as he is continuing to hype markets instead of rational remedy for deteriorating American wealth, e.g. continuing to promote trade deficit and job export from US to other country -- those are the main reasons that millions of Americans are suffering.
Today DataQuick reports "lenders filed a record number of mortgage default notices against California during the first three months of this year, the result of the recession and of lenders playing catch-up after a temporary lull in foreclosure activity." http://www.cnbc.com/id/30350403
The AAPL should be chopped up. It already hyped up 50% from the mar low and 56% from Jan low 80.
Markets are showing negative divergences and internals is deteriorating. With the AAPL news hype, the stock is pumped again in AH.
Daily price action momentum has turned negative, http://trend-signals.com/. Market breadth is also turning negative even though the markets are supported by the Fed.
Markets certainly have showing good momentum since the Mar 6, 2009 based on the false hope of spending the huge debt, but considering the negative sentiment during Nov-Mar, it is understandable.
The intraday high HOD backtested trendline pivots.
$COMPX 1679.82 $INDU 8044.83 $INX 861.78
Markets closed at a vst symmetrical triangle formation with 60min momentum turning down. Markets ran 30% from the Mar 6, 2009, SPX 666 - which is a significant rally. All bears have been chewed up by the recent market manipulation and certainly market sentiment turned bullish on false hope.
$COMPX 1646.12 $INDU 7886.57 $INX 843.55
Fundamentally, the 2000-2007 deception of GDP and economic data reporting destroyed American wealth, and with the debt spending, markets are again hyping up, creating more injustices for many in the future.
We are still seeing economic crisis, and luring in small investors and taking the fed print money using the financial markets are not the rational way to fix our economy.
STOP bubbles like what Obama is deceiving millions now with false hope of spending debt and hyping stock markets.
The false information led to more spending and bankrupting millions of Americans since 2000 and we are going through the similar situation with the Gov spending escalating more debt and giving false perception of economic growth.
GDP 2001-2008
The following is Mauldin's work which I commented during the last few years. He provided the chart above and the commentary, so I am highlighting one of main factors contributing to the financial crisis which we are facing.
"Notice that the recovery for the next four years would have been under 1%. We would have had under 1% GDP for four years running, without mortgage equity withdrawals, without people being able to spend more. That doesn't even count the leverage we increased on our auto loans, on credit cards -- you saw the two charts that Louie [Gave] and Martin [Barnes] used yesterday about the growth of credit, and we are now seeing it in reverse. Do you think George Bush would have stood even a small chance of being reelected without mortgage equity withdrawals?
Quarter 1-2006 we had $223 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals. Quarter 2-2008 it was $9.5 billion. Is it any wonder we were in recession by 2008? By the third and fourth quarters there was no money to keep the treadmill going That $50 trillion in credit was shrinking fast. We were imploding it. Further -- just as a little throwaway slide -- if you look at 2010 and 2011, we are getting ready for another huge wave of mortgage resets.
Now, we've gone through the last wave and we saw what happened; it created a lot of foreclosures. We are not out of the woods yet. It is going to be 2012 before we sell enough houses to really get back to reasonable levels, because we had 3.5 million excess homes at the top. We absorb about a million a year, it takes 3 years, that's kind of the math." frontlinethoughts.com More comments http://trend-signals.blogspot.com/2009/04/money-cycle.html
Tragedy ~ re Obama’s Christian Appointee to Faith-Based Program Says New Testament Teaching on Homosexuality Is ‘Not True’
It's tragedy if the oath fiasco was intentional. Once he blasphemed God, he does it again. That is the reason that God said, Blaspheme against Holy Spirit will not be forgiven.
And anyone who speaks a word against the Son of Man, it will be forgiven him; but to him who blasphemes against the Holy Spirit, it will not be forgiven (Luke 12:10).
Markets are trading near at intraday pivots after the pull back today. The high selling volume today is a good sign for bears waiting for a pull back after the recent rally of 30%. SPX 800 +/- is a pivot S/R. Daily momentum is now weakening to signal a meaningful correction of the recent rally.
