WAVE B ~ SPX 1200-1300

WAVE B ~ Markets are trading at major supports with 50% - 68% retracement from Oct 2002 bottom. Those are "WAVE A" supports. We could see "WAVE B" RT to 1200-1300 at this juncture with a positive outcome tomorrow.

The worst case scenario is, of course, a continuation of the sell.



Posted by: __1Best__ Date: Monday, May 26, 2008 9:40:20 AM
In reply to: __1Best__ who wrote msg# 8410 Post # of 11495


6/6/08 +/- is a pivotal turn date.

We have important cycle turn date near 6/6/08 +/- which will show a directional confirmation.

Because it is a pivotal, important turn date, I would not jump into a haste market projection; nevertheless, I think that it is important to determine overall market direction to guide technical signals. Breaking out the recent high is technically bullish which is not justifiable at this time, in my view.

We are in receding 8 - 8.6 global cycle which started in Oct 2002 within VLT cycle which is "winter" season of Kondratieff long wave cycle. This is evident after having ARM crisis and still having derivative bubble in addition to US debt.

While traders turned bullish with the recent up-price swing since 3/17/2008 anticipating the normal Presidential election bullish cycle which we have seen in Aug 2008 rallying into EOY, I do not think that we will see the same 2004 scenario in 2008.


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DOW & US debt with hyperinflation

Previously I commented on the LT cycles and phi dates and turned bearish when markets are showing continued hyperinflation signs in addition to the derivative bubble after ARM crisis/R.E. bear market. In addition, we still have geopolitical uncertainly and presidential election uncertainly including conspiracy theories.

As noted before, 2008 is not "Aug 2004" or "Jul-Jul 2006" lows. Before oil hyperventilating price projections, the Jan-Mar 2008 low was potentially the low for the year, but I do not think that it is the case even if we have the election year cycle.

$BKX is testing 2002 low even though $TRAN is testing Jul 2007 high. The retest of the high is the same formation of the 1998-1999 double top formation.

I think that markets will follow $BKX formation heading near to SPX 900 and DOW 9000 as I think that we are not ready to launch new bull market. (2b cont'd)

Nevertheless, markets are increasing becoming volatile with manipulation; therefore, need to remain flexible.

The Oct 2007 reversal is the "Golden Phi" divine number reversal.

DOW 10/9/2007 high 10/10/2007 reversal
SPX 10/9/2007 high 10/11/2007 reversal
QQQQ 10/31/2007 high 11/1/2007 reversal